1、 Price data

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. On May 15, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1120 yuan / ton, while on July 13, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1182.5 yuan / ton, up 12.09%. On July 13, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 91.97, flat with yesterday, 40.89% lower than 155.59 (January 25, 2018), and 37.49% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Since July, the petroleum coke market has entered a stable rising period. The operating rate of petroleum coke units in independent refineries decreased significantly, and the supply of petroleum coke was tight and the price rose. For the time being, the supply of petroleum coke in the main refineries remained stable, while the prices of independent refineries showed a good trend in the near future.

Upstream: in early July, the international crude oil price went up, OPEC + countries firmly reduced production, Saudi Arabia and other countries raised the crude oil price, which boosted the international crude oil price. In the first ten days of July, WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose by 4.15% and 4.89% respectively.

Downstream: the downstream glass market rose steadily. According to the data of the business agency, the overall glass price of this week (7.6-7.10) increased slightly. The average price of glass at the beginning of the week was 18.78 yuan / square meter, and the average price at the weekend was 18.95 yuan / square meter. The price of glass during the week was increased by 0.91%. Recently, the recovery and increase of glass production capacity has also accelerated. In addition, the Meiyu season is affected by weather factors such as rainfall. Production enterprises in some regions rose slightly to boost market confidence and maintain good market sentiment. The traditional sales peak season is coming, and the enthusiasm of downstream traders and processing enterprises to prepare goods has also increased. In terms of carbon, at present, carbon is affected by the upstream raw material petroleum coke. At present, the loss of carbon enterprises has increased, but driven by the price rise of upstream raw material petroleum coke, there is still upward momentum. Silicon metal market with the transaction improved and the end of the bidding, it is expected that the metal silicon market will continue to stabilize.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 10 commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list in the 27th week (7.6-7.10) of 2020, with petroleum coke (3.73%), asphalt (3.66%) and gasoline (2.81%). There were 4 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with coke (- 2.76%), WTI crude oil (- 1.34%) and naphtha (- 1.11%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.81%.

3、 Future forecast

Due to the shortage of resources, the price of petroleum coke in the local refining market maintained an upward trend. The trading atmosphere of petroleum coke market was good, and it still maintained the upward trend. At present, the transaction of petroleum coke was fair. The number of main units and local refineries will basically remain unchanged, but individual refineries will resume operation, and the overall supply will rise. It is predicted that there will still be a small rise in the petroleum coke market in the later stage, and the overall high-level consolidation market will be the main operation.