1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 in carbide process), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on April 7 was 5500 yuan / ton, up 2.54% compared with the previous day, and down 15.43% compared with the same period last year. On April 7, the PVC commodity index was 70.33, up 1.75 points from yesterday, down 29.67% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 20.70% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: the return of Qingming holiday, the domestic PVC market ushered in a wave of rising market. Recently, PVC futures rose sharply, driving spot prices up. In the first quarter of this year, the PVC market was not good, the price continued to go down, the profits of the enterprises decreased sharply, the mentality of the operators was not positive, and the wait-and-see mentality was strong. In April, PVC enterprises gradually entered the state of maintenance in spring, the market output decreased, the social inventory decreased, and the supply side improved PVC. On July 7, PVC prices rose to varying degrees, and some manufacturers closed their bids without reporting. In the psychology of buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing increased. The overall trading atmosphere of the market improved, the sales pressure was relieved to a certain extent, and the price fixing psychology of production enterprises was obvious. Finally, PVC market ushered in the long-term rising trend. However, at present, the market supply is still slightly loose, domestic terminal demand is not large, and foreign export orders are reduced. Whether PVC can continue to rise in the future depends on the recovery of demand side. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of April 7, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is around 5350-5750 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 5450-5550 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is about 5430-5530 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 5500-5530 yuan / ton, and the real deal can be negotiated.

Futures: PVC contract opened high in 2009 and continued to rise. On July 7, the opening price was 5405 yuan / ton, the highest was 5495 yuan / ton, the lowest was 5390 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 5490 yuan / ton, up 185 yuan / ton, or 3.49% compared with the previous transaction. The trading volume decreased to 185067 hands, and the position increased by 6660 hands to 185225 hands.

Import and export: according to the latest data released by the customs, from January to February 2020, China imported 89200 tons of PVC powder and exported 61700 tons of PVC powder. In total, the import volume of 99500 tons from January to February 2019 decreased by 10300 tons or 10.35%; the export volume of 93800 tons from January to February 2019 decreased by 32100 tons or 34.22%.

Industry chain: on April 2, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States rose sharply, with main contracts at 25.32 yuan / barrel, up $5.01. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract at $29.94/barrel, up $5.20. WTI and Brent recorded the biggest daily gains, both exceeding 25%. According to the business community, global demand is still the decisive factor restricting oil prices. The prevalence of public health events may lead to a sharp contraction of economic activities, which cannot support the price of ethylene, so analysts of business data expect that the price of ethylene will keep a narrow decline in the future. In terms of carbide, the recent ex factory price of carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on April 7, 2020, there are 7 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the rubber and plastic sector, with PET (4.90%), PP (4.44%) and PVC (2.54%) as the top three commodities. There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, PC (- 3.19%) and PS (- 0.44%) respectively. The average price of this day is 0.69%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: at present, PVC futures are rising, the spot market is rising, and some enterprises are entering the spring inspection, with the support of the supply side, it is expected that PVC trend will be stronger in the short term, and there is further expectation of rising.