LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 9390 yuan/ton on October 1st and 10250 yuan/ton on October 29th, an increase of 9.16%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 12133 yuan/ton on October 1st and 12766 yuan/ton on October 29th, an increase of 5.22%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 10475 yuan/ton on October 1st and 11150 yuan/ton on October 29th, an increase of 6.44%. The overall trend of polyethylene is rapidly rising in the first half of the year, fluctuating back and forth in the middle, and rebounding sharply again in the second half.
The domestic supply of polyethylene was initially tight and then loose, and the concentrated maintenance in the first half of the year brought about a reduction in supply. The tight circulation of goods supported the first wave of rapid rise. The mid month maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, coupled with the release of new production capacity, the increase in supply has become apparent, and the suppression of prices has led to a pullback. In the latter half of the year, the petrochemical industry took the initiative to control volume, reduce inventory and raise prices, and tightened the supply of spot goods, which helped the market rebound again.
Agricultural film: Production has increased, but raw materials continue to rise, compressing product profits. Downstream companies dare not stock up and rely on immediate procurement for essential needs. The growth rate of new orders has slowed down, showing a weaker year-on-year trend compared to previous years; Packaging film: Pre stocking for Singles’ Day brings temporary orders, but the sustainability is poor, and packaging factories tend to be cautious after the increase in raw material prices.
The fluctuation of crude oil dominates the cost center of polyethylene, and the rise in oil prices in the first half of the year has raised the cost of oil to PE production, opening up room for price increases. In the middle of the month, oil prices experienced a pullback, and cost support weakened, causing the market to fluctuate and fall. The rebound of crude oil in the latter half of the year brought bottom support, but the stable cost of coal to material sources has to some extent limited the extent of the increase.
The peak season for agricultural film is gradually coming to an end, with continuous increase in supply and increasing pressure on supply and demand. Oil prices provide bottom support, but it is difficult to continue driving a significant increase, and it is expected that polyethylene as a whole will likely fluctuate at a high level.