Commodity index: on April 9, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 92.08, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.05% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 2.04% from 90.24, the lowest point on March 30, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on April 30, 2020, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market is about 14800-16000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (anion) market is about 8000-11500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain:

Upstream: from January to April 2020, the mainstream price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market continued to decrease. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times; in the middle of the year, the quotation continued to decline slightly, which was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 10650 yuan / ton for three times; by the end of the decade, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a fluctuation of about 20%; on February 21, the mainstream price was about 9500 yuan / ton, decreased by 200 yuan / ton on 24, decreased by 300 yuan / ton on 27, and decreased by 150 yuan / ton to 8850 yuan / ton on 28 , 1750-1800 yuan / ton lower than before, about 17% lower; in March, acrylonitrile continued to decrease, to 8100 yuan / ton on the 10th, 8000 yuan / ton on the 25th, to 100 yuan / ton on the 26th, to 50 yuan / ton on the 30th, to 7800 yuan / ton on the 31st, and to 1000 yuan / ton that month. In April, the price of acrylonitrile did not stop falling back. The quotation on the first day of the current month was 7450 yuan / ton, down about 4.5% compared with the quotation at the end of March. On the second day, it dropped 150 yuan / ton to 7300 yuan / ton, and on the third day, it dropped 150 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton. On the first day (7 days) after the Qingming holiday, it was 6800 yuan / ton, down 350 yuan / ton. On the eighth day, it was 6650 yuan / ton, on the ninth day, it was 6500 yuan / ton, and on the tenth day, it was 6400 yuan / ton It’s amazing how fast and how large it is! In the first ten days of April, the decline of acrylonitrile exceeded 17.9%, with a total decline of about 1400 yuan / ton.

Downstream: at present, the downstream water treatment project construction enterprises have a lot of project negotiations, but the implementation is still slow, and the demand for raw materials has been restored.

Manufacturer: the production situation of the manufacturer is good, the inventory is high, the consumption is in progress, the current downstream demand is limited, and the raw material cost continues to decrease.

Industry: during the Spring Festival holiday in January 2020 to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work. At present, the logistics in March is back to normal, and the inventory is in constant consumption. It is reported that the logistics cost in some regions has increased since, and the quotation has increased during the period of less vehicle return to work due to the delay in construction, etc., but the transportation cost has been reduced after most logistics enterprises go to work in the near future; in April, the downstream construction is still recovering gradually, and the demand still needs to be recovered in time.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile was lowered by 1400 yuan / ton again in the first ten days of this month, and the cost of polyacrylamide was greatly reduced. Under the current situation of weak demand, the inventory is high, and the manufacturer’s price is still possible to be lowered. It is expected that the market price of Polyacrylamide in the future will remain stable and weak.