1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1993 yuan / ton on March 1, 2116 yuan / ton on March 15, with a half month price increase of 6.19%. On March 15, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 70.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 14.11% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data in the business club’s large list, on March 1, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2200 yuan / ton, and on March 15, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2250 yuan / ton, up 1.02%. On March 15, DAP commodity index was 66.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.91% from 102.98 (2011-10-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.58% from 65.62, the lowest point on March 4, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium: in March, the price of monoammonium phosphate rose sharply. At present, the return rate of enterprises is 62%. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is about 2000 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1950-2000 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted about 2000 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 2100-2150 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950-2000 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: in March, the price of diammonium phosphate rose, and Hubei enterprises resumed production one after another. At present, the enterprise’s resumption rate is 61%. At present, 64% of main diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2200-2250 yuan / ton, 64% of main diammonium in Shandong Province 2500 yuan / ton, 64% of main diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2450-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of main diammonium in Anhui Province 2200-2250 yuan / ton. The price of arriving station in Heilongjiang is 2500-2550 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the start of fertilizer spring ploughing and the start of terminal demand are imminent. The price of Monoammonium, compound fertilizer and urea is rising, which is hindered by logistics transportation. The recovery of downstream production led to the improvement of sulfur demand. Since March, the domestic liquid ammonia market has continued to rebound, especially in the northern region, leading the increase. The domestic phosphorus ore market saw the first small increase in the beginning of the year, with more mines returning to work and production increasing, and production gradually increasing. Some mines have been fully started, and production and sales gradually normalized. In the spring, the demand for phosphate fertilizer and other products increased, coupled with the overall recovery of logistics base, and the sales volume of phosphate ore market further improved, so the early inventory was digested.

Industry: > according to the price monitoring of business agencies, in the 10th week of 2020 (3.9-3.13), there are 11 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are ammonium chloride (17.14%), liquid ammonia (11.43%) and sulfur (7.18%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are PX (- 11.29%), ox (- 10.71%), acetone (- 10.26%). This week’s average was – 1.5%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that at present, the fertilizer market is in the peak season of sales, the prices of raw sulfur and liquid ammonia continue to rise, and the demand in the downstream is increasing, resulting in the rising price of ammonium phosphate due to multiple advantages. Due to the increase of demand, it is expected that the hot market of ammonium phosphate will continue in the later period, and the price will rise mainly during the stable period.