1、 Price trend
The market for propylene oxide fell this week, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. As of March 13, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 8433.33 yuan / ton, down 3.44% compared with the beginning of the week and 16.78% compared with January 1.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: propylene oxide market fell this week. The price of raw propylene fell, the cost side was not enough, some of the lower reaches of the market were in low demand, and the fluctuation of crude oil had a certain impact on the purchasing mentality, and the market wait-and-see mood increased. On the 13th, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 8500 yuan / ton. On the 13th, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China was around 8500-8700 yuan / ton, that in Shandong was around 8200-8400 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China was around 8300-8350 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: the market price of propylene in Shandong region in the upstream (3.9-3.13) fell by 6.60% this week. On the 13th, the market turnover was 6100-6650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 6100-6150 yuan / ton. Influenced by the OPEC meeting a few days ago, international crude oil plummeted continuously. Influenced by the hope of economic stimulus plan and the reduction of US producers’ spending on the 10th, American crude oil jumped 8% again. On the 11th, international crude oil fell slightly, and on the 12th, crude oil fell sharply again. Due to the low production and inventory before propylene, the decline in the early stage is not significant, but the crude oil price fluctuates greatly. It is expected that the propylene price will be affected by crude oil in the later stage, showing a significant downward trend. On the 13th, the overall trading increment of downstream soft foam polyether was limited, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Hard foam polyether market weak wait-and-see, on-site trading atmosphere flat.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 10th week of 2020 (3.9-3.13), there are 11 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are ammonium chloride (17.14%), liquid ammonia (11.43%) and sulfur (7.18%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are PX (- 11.29%), ox (- 10.71%), acetone (- 10.26%).
3、 Future forecast:
According to the propylene oxide analyst of the business club, in the near future, the raw material propylene is in weak operation, the cost support is weakened, the follow-up of new downstream polyether orders is limited, the follow-up power for propylene oxide consumption is insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the field. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy market will be dominated by weak finishing and operation, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price and downstream demand.