I. price trend

 
Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, last week (12.9-13), the domestic adipic acid market trend was sluggish, maintaining a narrow adjustment pattern, with little price change, with a drop of 0.50%. As of the end of last week, the mainstream price was generally 7800-8000 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis and comment

Last week, the market of adipic acid was stable and moving slightly, and the price in most regions was not changed much. On the basic level, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder adipic acid to get out of the weak situation, and the benefits of cost side were not transmitted in time. At present, the weak demand in the downstream of adipic acid and the increase of supply only lead to the increase of social inventory pressure. Since October, the market has been in the stage of de stocking. The effect of de stocking for three consecutive months is not obvious. The enterprise inventory and market inventory still maintain a high level, which is closely related to the current low demand and low purchase, which is also that the price of adipic acid has not rebounded Important reasons. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, on the upstream cost side, although pure benzene has ended the downward shock pattern, the rebound rate last week was 6%, but the conduction effect of cost was lagging behind, which did not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. It is expected that the price of adipic acid will follow up at the end of the month due to the rise of cost side.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the perspective of supply, the market is still dominated by overall oversupply, manufacturers and market stocks are still both high, and dealers are under great pressure, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have hoarded a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is relatively high. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

 
PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, the downstream procurement did not improve significantly. In December, nylon 66 market was depressed, and the downstream operating rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has continued to decline since September. This month, the market trend was stable, slightly rebounded last week, but the strength was quite limited, As of December 13, the rebound was only 0.2% (as shown in the figure above), PA66 market has not improved in the near future, and the downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.

III. future forecast

According to adipic acid analysts of business, social and chemical branch, adipic acid will maintain a weak market in the near future. It is unlikely that the price will reverse in the later period. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up. But in the near future, because the upstream pure benzene price has risen, with the cost effect transmitted to the terminal, adipic acid may There will be a small rebound.