I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 13, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5540 yuan / ton, 1.47% higher than that of the same period last month, and 1.34% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market continued to rise, and the market in some regions was strong.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic ethanol market continued to be strong, with the average price rising to varying degrees compared with last week. At the beginning of the week, the ethanol market in East China increased with the increase of transportation cost, and the low inventory in the field, which led to the increase of liquor companies’ offer. In Northeast China, the price hike was the main reason, and the snowfall caused the problem of automobile transportation to be basically solved. However, due to the influence of heavy fog, high speed and speed limit, the goods were received slowly, and the on-site goods were gathered in many ports. The ethanol market in Henan Province showed strong performance, and the demand for water was increased, Cassava alcohol rose with less inventory, higher export of superior corn alcohol, and higher price of liquor companies; Shandong and Northern Jiangsu regions reported high price, mainly due to low inventory of liquor companies, difficult transportation in Northeast China, and lack of water supply. In the middle of the week, under the support of favorable supply, the offer was raised in East China. It was heard that there was snow in Northeast China, and the vehicles were hard to find. Fortunately, the snow was not heavy, and the impact was small. In Northern Jiangsu, the offer continued to rise, with low on-site operating rate, and most of it was imported. In Henan, the price of ethanol market was stable, the downstream trading atmosphere was good, and the price of alcohol was stable. In South China, the supply was low, and the offer was high In the south, the transition is stable temporarily, and there is a small increase intention. Short term domestic ethanol market high consolidation.

Industry chain: corn: with the weather clearing up, the shipments in North China increased significantly. The arrival of goods in Shandong increased significantly, reaching the 800 Taiwan pass again. On the one hand, the increase of the arrival volume is due to the impact of the weather in the past few days, the backlog of vehicles arrived in a centralized manner. On the other hand, with the weather improving, grassroots farmers and traders began to increase the volume of goods, and shipped at a temporarily stable price. The price of corn in Shandong basically remained stable. Only yingxuan alcohol reduced 10 yuan / ton due to the impact of the arrival of northeast third class grain, and other enterprises did not change. However, the grain supply in the market is increasing, and the local and surrounding areas in Shandong will gradually increase their shipments. According to the weather forecast, there will be rain and snow in North China in the near future, and the price decline is expected to be limited.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate is weak, the downstream substantial demand turns weak, and the purchase volume of ethyl acetate is gradually reduced, while the domestic spot supply of ethyl acetate is sufficient, which leads to the gradual accumulation of the supplier’s spot inventory and passive competition to reduce the price for shipment. However, Jiangsu Thorpe device failure alleviates the market bearish mentality, and it is expected that the ethyl acetate Market will remain stable for a while.

III. future forecast

It is estimated that the high-level consolidation of the inland market in the short term market will be difficult to alleviate the logistics in the Northeast in the short term. Large factories will basically gather at the port for shipment, the inventory of enterprises is not high, and the logistics price continues to rise. It is not ruled out that there will be enterprise price adjustment and profit-making logistics in the later period. However, the high-level consolidation of prices in East China and central China will be supported by the favorable supply side in the short term. A large chemical plant in East China will have maintenance plans in the later period The body date has not been announced yet. There is less local supply in South China and the raw material price is high. Ethanol analysts of business club expect that the domestic ethanol market will remain high in the short term.