According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the toluene market has recently seen a slight increase and has been consolidating and running. On April 22nd, the benchmark price of toluene was 7770 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78% from 7710 yuan/ton on April 15th.
International crude oil fluctuates and falls, toluene cost support weakens
Recently (4.15-4.22), due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, weakened demand expectations, and the suppression of conflict risk premiums, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, weakening support for the cost of toluene. As of April 19th, WTI06 contract settlement is 82.22 USD/barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $87.29 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has fluctuated at a high level, with CFR China’s toluene price at $940 per ton as of April 22 and May.
The production of xylene has significantly decreased, and the demand for toluene has weakened
The starting price of xylene has dropped to a high level, and PX units such as Urumqi Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Ningbo Zhongjin have successively shut down for maintenance. Domestic PX production has significantly decreased, and as of April 22, PX production has slightly decreased to around 70%. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has slightly decreased, which still provides some support for the domestic PX market. As of April 22, the closing price in the Asian region was 1026 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1051 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand
The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of April 18th, the operating rate of refineries nationwide has remained around 70%.
Maintaining high levels of port inventory puts certain pressure on the toluene market
Domestic toluene port inventory remains high, with East China toluene inventory at 75000 tons and South China toluene inventory at 5000 tons as of April 18th.
There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage, and it is expected that the supply of toluene will decrease
The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. There are still maintenance plans for the equipment in May and June in the later period, and overall, the expected decline in the supply of toluene in the later period provides some support for the toluene market.
Future Market Forecast:
From a technical perspective, the toluene index chart of Business Society shows that the 7-day moving average has been above the 30 day moving average since the beginning of the year and is showing an upward trend. During this period, the price of toluene gradually increased; At present, the 7-day moving average is still operating above the 30 day moving average, and the toluene market is still supported by the 30 day moving average in the short term.
From a fundamental perspective, currently international crude oil prices are fluctuating and falling, with the cost center of toluene shifting downwards; Secondly, the demand for downstream oil adjustment and disproportionation reaction is lower than expected; The maintenance plan for the toluene plant in the near future will to some extent alleviate the pressure on the toluene supply side. It is expected that the toluene market may slightly weaken in the later stage.
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