According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of April 16, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2 370 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market continued to decline.
II. Market Analysis
Products: Domestic methanol performance is not good, ports and inland parts are declining to varying degrees; among them, the port extension is now linked, at this stage, security supervision on some downstream demand constraints continue to exist, such as formaldehyde, pharmaceuticals, with the port depot, follow-up supply and other repression, the negative driving force released by the Eastern market on the inland production areas gradually reflects, and although currently in the northwest; However, due to the weak follow-up of consumer market demand and the general enthusiasm of the downstream market entry, the spring inspection factor in 2019 has a relatively limited substantial boost effect after the previous over-hype. Therefore, driven by the supply-demand game, the overall performance of the short-term market is expected to be relatively weak.
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In terms of freight, domestic freight for methanol has been sorted out, with reference to 160-230 yuan/ton for freight from northern Inner Mongolia to northern Shandong and 150-260 yuan/ton for freight from southern Shandong to northern Shandong. Part of Shanxi is 100-150 yuan/ton to the north of Shandong Province, and reference is 140-180 yuan/ton from Guanzhong to the north of Shandong Province and 130-180 yuan/ton to the south of Shandong Province. Ningxia to North Shandong 270 yuan/ton, Shenhua to North Shandong 290-300 yuan/ton, Xinjiang to North Shandong 550-710 yuan/ton.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: raw material methanol is weak finishing, under safety supervision, formaldehyde in the lower reaches of Shandong Province has partially recovered, but the overall start-up is still low, formaldehyde Market Trading appears weak and stable. Linyi is now around 1400 yuan / ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are maintained at 1500 – 1550 yuan / ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market was stable at the beginning of the week, and the industry was more cautious. At the weekend, some devices returned to normal, and the overall start-up rate increased to about 75%. Therefore, supply is expected to increase. In addition, downstream demand is still poor, acetate and chloroacetic acid products market is still weak. Export negotiations are still routine and there is not much good news coming from them. At present, domestic oversupply will continue. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether Market is stable and small push, market atmosphere is still acceptable. Major units are supported by sudden positive, but the momentum for continued growth is insufficient. It is expected that the domestic dimethyl ether market will be stable or moderate in the short term.
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3. Future Market Forecast
Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: On the positive side, the supply side: spring in Northwest China is relatively concentrated, local supply side is relatively tight, and the price of goods is tightly supported; downstream devices: some downstream restart news, later partial demand side or slightly improved. On the bearish side, futures: the day futures market showed a downward trend, and the spot market declined accordingly; arrival: late shipment arrival concentrated, we need to be alert to the rhythm of inventory accumulation; demand side: at present, some downstream devices have not been restored, and demand side performance is weak. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the overall performance of the domestic methanol market in the short term is relatively weak.