In the first week after the holiday (2.24-28), the domestic PVC market prices declined. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the SG-5 weekly decline of PVC carbide method was 2.3%. As the weekend approaches, the mainstream transaction price of carbide SG-5 in Shandong region is between 4600-4700 yuan/ton.
At the beginning of the week, the PVC market atmosphere was light, downstream processing enterprises resumed production one after another, distributors returned to the market, and terminal demand was still in the stage of recovery. The market had a strong wait-and-see attitude, with distributors reporting less and remaining stable. Waiting for the industry trend to become clear after the holiday. On the supply side, the operating rate of PVC manufacturers remained stable and high after the holiday, and the supply increased. With the gradual recovery of logistics and transportation, the high inventory of upstream factories began to shift to the market and terminal channels, and the circulation of spot goods increased.

The external demand performance is average, with exports falling short of expectations, mainly due to the expected cancellation of export tax rebate policies and fluctuations in shipping costs. The follow-up of foreign trade orders is weak, and the transaction of high priced goods is significantly limited, making it difficult to form effective support for the market. Under the triple pressure of high supply, weak demand, and weak exports, the PVC spot market lacks sustained upward momentum and is under price pressure.
As the weekend approached, PVC market prices fell in a bearish trend, and the futures market fluctuated and weakened. Some merchants voluntarily offered discounts to promote shipments. With a slight release of demand, market transactions slightly improved compared to the beginning of the week, but overall, the pattern of weak fundamentals has not been shaken off.
Overall, the core contradictions in the current PVC market are concentrated in high supply, slow demand recovery, and export pressure. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate, and future attention should focus on downstream resumption progress, upstream inventory turnover pace, and changes in export orders.
Future forecast
Business Society predicts that the PVC market price will continue to be weak next week. From the supply side perspective, the start of PVC production in China next week may slightly decrease, and some companies have maintenance plans. However, the overall industry load is still relatively high, coupled with high social inventory, market supply contradictions still exist, which will continue to suppress prices.
On the demand side, although downstream enterprises have gradually resumed work, the later operating rate may recover slowly, and there is still a stage of urgent demand. However, the overall purchasing mentality is cautious, mainly focusing on buying at low prices and following up on demand, which is difficult to form strong support for the market. In terms of cost, the sluggish performance of the raw material calcium carbide market has further weakened the cost support for PVC, resulting in a lack of upward momentum.
Overall, under the influence of three factors: high inventory, weak demand, and weakened cost support, the domestic PVC market will lack positive drivers next week and is expected to continue its weak downward trend.