In May, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries remained weak and stabilized
As of May 19th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8916.67 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.19% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1st, which was 8933.33 yuan/ton. The current price is at a mid to high level within a one-year range, with a minimum annual value of 5533.33 yuan/ton and a maximum value of 9833.33 yuan/ton. The current price is above the median value of 7683.33 yuan/ton. In May, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries decreased, while the price of phthalic anhydride from naphthalene method increased.
In May, the phthalic anhydride market was strong in naphthalene and weak in neighboring countries
The core feature of the phthalic anhydride market in May was the significant strengthening of naphthalene phthalic anhydride and the weak consolidation of neighboring phthalic anhydride: the ex factory price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride in Hebei Province rose from 7500 yuan/ton on April 30 to 8000-8100 yuan/ton on May 18, with a cumulative increase of about 550 yuan/ton, or about 7.33%. The inventory of naphthalene phthalic anhydride industry is generally oversold, and the supply remains tight. The overall performance of phthalic anhydride shows a pattern of “weak consolidation, stable but not rising”. The neighboring method is suppressed by demand, while the naphthalene method is driven by supply shortages, and the price difference between the two is narrowing.
Stable cost support for phthalic anhydride
The neighboring benzene manufacturers are in a period of shutdown and maintenance, with reduced supply and stable prices; As the core raw material of phthalic anhydride, ortho benzene has been under price pressure recently; Industrial naphthalene supports the cost end of naphthalene based phthalic anhydride.
Phthalic anhydride supply first decreases and then stabilizes
In May, the operating rate of the phthalic anhydride industry showed a trend of first decreasing and then stabilizing: at the end of April and the beginning of May, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises ranged from 65% to 70%, and then the operating rate of neighboring plants gradually decreased due to profit suppression and maintenance. The overall operating rate of the industry was less than 60%. As of May 19th, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride remained stable at around 62%, and the operating rate of naphthalene method remained high and stable. The overall operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises has declined in May, and the supply of phthalic anhydride has tightened.
Demand side: Weak consolidation
The main downstream consumer area of phthalic anhydride, the plasticizer sector, is trending towards weakness: the production and sales of the terminal industry are not strong, the consumption of plasticizer suppliers is limited, and plasticizer prices are fluctuating and falling. Downstream procurement is mainly focused on essential needs, and inventory is replenished at low prices, resulting in a low overall purchasing willingness. The demand side support is limited, but essential procurement still provides a bottom line for phthalic anhydride prices, and industry inventory remains at a low level. The low inventory of phthalic anhydride manufacturers and the overall low inventory of the industry, coupled with tightening supply, have to some extent offset the pressure of insufficient demand.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in the short term, on the cost side, due to the deadlock in the US Iran peace talks, crude oil prices are consolidating at a high level, while the prices of ortho benzene and industrial naphthalene are stabilizing, and the overall cost side is strong and stable. Supply side: The utilization rate of domestic phthalic anhydride production capacity has declined, the market supply is tight, and coupled with the widespread overselling of inventory in the naphthalene phthalic anhydride industry, it has provided strong support for neighboring phthalic anhydride. Demand side: The plasticizer sector is operating weakly, with prices of DOP and DBP being weak, only supported by essential procurement. Overall, in May, the phthalic anhydride market showed a trend of “naphthalene method strengthening, neighboring method stabilizing, and overall weak consolidation”, with low industry inventory and strong demand support forming a pulling force. It is expected to maintain a weak and stable pattern in the short term, but there is still further upward space for naphthalene method phthalic anhydride prices, which may stimulate neighboring method phthalic anhydride prices to recover in advance.