1、 Market Trend Review
In April 2026, the domestic PA6 market showed a trend of high peak and then falling back and oscillating. At the beginning of the month, the market continued its upward trend with strong support from raw material costs. As of April 7th, the benchmark price of PA6 in Shengyi Society has risen to 14600 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.55% from the beginning of the month, setting a new high for the year. However, in the middle and late months, the market turned to a weak oscillation after a high-level decline. As of April 21st, the benchmark price of PA6 closed at 13866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65% from the beginning of the month and a pullback of about 5% from the high point of the year. As of April 28th, the benchmark price of PA6 has further dropped to 13400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.96% from the beginning of the month. Despite the monthly pullback, from an annual perspective, the price remains in the historical high range (with a maximum value of 14600 yuan/ton and a minimum value of 9066.67 yuan/ton). ‌
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In terms of cost:
At the beginning of the month, the price of upstream raw material caprolactam remained firm, and the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society increased from 13077.50 yuan/ton to 13357.50 yuan/ton, forming a sustained cost transmission and strong support for PA6. But after mid April, cost support significantly weakened. The weekly closing price of Sinopec Caprolactam was lowered by 230 yuan/ton to 13800 yuan/ton on April 13th, and further lowered by 150 yuan/ton to 13650 yuan/ton on April 20th. Although the final settlement price for April was set at 13570 yuan/ton, an increase of 940 yuan/ton from the previous month, indicating a long-term tight supply in the raw material market, the continuous downward adjustment of the weekly settlement price and the loosening of the benchmark price (13112.50 yuan/ton on April 21) have led to a marginal weakening of the cost support for PA6, becoming a key factor in the price decline. ‌
In terms of supply and demand:
The industry’s operating load has increased, and the release of new production capacity and the restoration of maintenance equipment have driven supply growth. The demand side has always been weak. The downstream textile and chemical fiber industries have limited acceptance of high priced raw materials, and procurement is mainly based on “replenishment of essential needs and procurement as needed”, without centralized stockpiling. There is no significant rebound in terminal orders, and the profits of textile industry enterprises in the first quarter have declined year-on-year, further confirming the sluggish demand. The market presents a stalemate pattern of “strong cost support and weak demand follow-up”, with high price transaction resistance. In the latter half of the year, downstream factories have no intention of replenishing inventory, and traders are selling at low prices to recoup funds, exacerbating the weak market atmosphere.
3、 Short term forecast for the future market
In the future, it is expected that the PA6 market will maintain a narrow consolidation and weak oscillation pattern in the short term, and there is still a possibility of a slight downward shift in the price center. The marginal weakening of cost support and sustained weak demand form a game, and price trends will highly depend on changes in raw material prices and the actual recovery progress of downstream orders.