I. Price trend
This week (12.11-12.15) lead market first rose after the fall, a small concussion, the domestic market price at the beginning of the week in 18481.25 Yuan/ton, weekend in 18975.00 yuan/ton, a small rise of 2.67%.
December 17 the lead (market) commodity index was 115.48, which was flat yesterday, down 13.83% from the 134.01 Point (2016-11-29) of the cycle, up 54.74% from its lowest point of March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the 2011-09-01 to present).
Second, the market trend analysis
Domestic market: This week spot lead main deal 18300-19150 Yuan/ton. Limited by environmental protection, the price of this week after the first Yang, the manufacturers basically maintain long single shipments, bulk shipping enthusiasm is limited; trade market due to delivery of goods into the market, volume significantly increased, the price of almost all to paste water; This week, the supply is still limited, the Shanghai region quoted the lead Ingot brand has Jinsha, Mengzi, Heng Bang, copper crown, torch, dragon , South, Henan Light and so on; among them, Henan and other northern areas and the Shanghai region of the price difference, to the weekend, is still in the vicinity of the flat water, and Guangdong and other southern regions and the Shanghai area spreads, then to the paste water 100 yuan/ton.
Output and import and export: This year due to domestic environmental inspection stringent, resulting in many small mines shut down, lead concentrate supply shortage situation. Processing costs, as at November 24, Shanghai Color Network statistics of Henan, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Yunnan, Hunan lead concentrate processing costs are 1200 yuan/ton, 1250 Yuan/ton, 1150 Yuan/ton, 1300 yuan/ton, 1300 yuan/ton, are low in the year, indicating that the supply of lead concentrate is still scarce, Lead prices will be supported. October refined lead production also showed a month-on-month decline. Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics show that October China’s refined lead production of 416,000 tons, the chain reduction of 2.6%, January-October refining lead cumulative output of 4.177 million tons, an increase of 4.7%, the growth rate than January-September fell 1.4%, lower than last year’s 6.1%. It is said that in October, in addition to tin production overhaul, the revitalization of lead, Xiangyun Feilong, such as raw materials and technology upgrades, such as the decline in production, other refinery production stability. In November, the gold and silver lead in Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, is currently in the state of discontinued maintenance, which is expected to decrease by nearly two-thirds. Smelting plants in other areas are relatively stable. Overall, smelting plant raw material lead concentrate low inventory level, late lead concentrate supply or more nervous.
Demand side: Data from the World Metals Statistics Bureau (WBMS) published on its website in Wednesday showed that the global lead market was short of 376,000 tonnes in January-October this year, with a shortfall of 154,000 tonnes in 2016. As at the end of October, total inventories had been reduced by 63,000 tonnes by the end of 2016. In the first 10 months of this year, global raw and secondary refining lead production was 9.724 million tonnes, up 9.1% from a year earlier. China’s demand increased by 699,000 tonnes in January-October over a year earlier, accounting for 42% of global demand. US apparent demand increased 288,000 tons. In October this year, global refining lead production was 977,700 tonnes and consumption was 1.0047 million tonnes.
Futures market: This week in Shanghai lead main 1801 contract is also a drop in trend, at the beginning of the week by the refinery to limit the news positive, Shanghai lead center of gravity shift, jump too many road EMA, week up to 19525 yuan/ton, but above 60 daily average line bearing pressure apparent, until Thursday twist potential correction, week minimum to 18380 yuan/ton, up to 14 : 55, reported 18955 Yuan/ton, week gain 2.21%. Weekly turnover reduction of more than 81,000 hands to more than 245,000 hands, positions to reduce 2,800 hands to more than 34,000 hands.
Macro: According to Thursday data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s November official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded to 51.8 after the market was expected to fall to 51.4. Production indices and New order indices rebounded, with the purchase index rising to a higher rate this year. PMI forecasts rebound and producer services business activity index hits a new high in the year. The overall economic environment is better than expected, conducive to the growth of the manufacturing industry, led to the growth of non-ferrous metals and zinc.
International: The United States November PPI better than expected, the central bank in the week to raise interest rates, but by the US 11 core CPI downturn, the U.S. dollar first Yang and then suppress, supporting basic metal low return.
Iii. outlook for the future
Spot lead next week or will be sold at 18200-18950 yuan/ton. Environmental Protection limited to continue, most of the refinery material to maintain a long single shipment, and due to the completion of the warehouse, part of the refinery scattered single supply or relative increase.
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