According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic methanol market has once again declined. From May 15th to 19th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2335 yuan/ton to 2282 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 2.28%, with a maximum amplitude of 3.52%, a month on month decrease of 10.49%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.75%.
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The domestic methanol market has significantly declined, and the market atmosphere continues to be weak. After the futures price fell below the integer threshold of 2200 yuan/ton, the market sentiment became less confident. At the same time, the raw coal is still weak, the downstream demand is weak for a long time, the social inventory of the methanol market continues to accumulate, the source of imported goods also continues to pour in, and the spot market price of methanol drops again and again.
As of the close on May 19th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have been lowered. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2225 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2232 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2161 yuan/ton. It closed at 2167 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 87 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 3.86%. The trading volume was 1693932, the position was 1786940, and the daily increase was 232062.
As of May 19, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:
Region/ Price
Shanxi region/ 2140-2160 yuan/ton factory withdrawal foreign exchange
Liaoning region/ About 2530 yuan/ton
Anhui region/ 2450-2500 yuan/ton factory acceptance
Henan region/ 2230 yuan/ton factory withdrawal foreign exchange
On the cost side, there is a clear contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The price of raw coal is mainly weak. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.
On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: inventory pressure is slightly increasing, and formaldehyde demand may decrease; Downstream dimethyl ether: A plant in East China has returned to normal, with a slight increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand or increase; The demand for acetic acid may decrease. The demand side for methanol is biased towards bearish effects.
On the supply side, the overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a significant decrease in capacity utilization. The temporary storage of methanol supply is favorable.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 18th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $341.00- $343.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 88.00-91.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 273.00-275.00 euros/ton.
Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down
Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 335.00-337.00 USD/ton./-2 USD/ton
Europe and America/ The Gulf of the United States/ 85.00-88.00 cents/gallon./-2 cents/gallon
Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 272.00-274.00 euros/ton./0 euros/ton
In the future market forecast, supply remains abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs may temporarily stabilize. Business Society Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to be weak.
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