1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the bulk list of business society, mixed xylene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On August 5, the price was 8090 yuan / ton; On Friday (August 12), the price was 7960 yuan / ton, down 1.61% from last week and up 36.07% from the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Due to the weakness of crude oil, the weakness of cost support, the poor market mentality, and the weakness of mixed xylene. With the improvement of the terminal gasoline market, the demand has been supported to a certain extent, driving the price to rebound slightly. However, the fundamentals in the field are weak, and the downstream reduction of mixed xylene export leads to increased enthusiasm for toluene, which hinders the rise of mixed xylene.
In the external market, the price of mixed xylene in Asia increased this week. On Thursday (August 11), the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was 998 US dollars / ton, up 36 US dollars / ton or 3.74% year-on-year; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 998 US dollars / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 33 US dollars / ton, or 3.42%.
In terms of crude oil, US gasoline inventory dropped sharply this week, and gasoline demand rebounded significantly; In addition, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast of oil demand growth this year, and the pressure of demand decline was relieved. The oil price fluctuated and rose during the week. As of August 12, Brent price in this week increased by 3.23 USD / barrel or 3.4% compared with last week; WTI rose by US $3.08/barrel or 3.46%.
On the downstream side, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On August 5, the price was 9000 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 12), the price was 9000 yuan / ton. The price was the same as last week, up 23.29% over the same period last year.
In the ox market, the price of ox in East China was stable this week. On Friday (August 12), the price of ox in East China was 8000 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week and increased by 26.98% over the same period last year.
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In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong Province fluctuated upward this week. On August 5, the price was 8555 yuan / ton, and on August 12, the price was 8656 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.18% over last week and 14.28% over the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. The international oil price is still swaying in the expectation that the economic recession risk will affect demand and supply tension, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.
The crude oil trend is still uncertain, and the cost side is not stable. At present, the gasoline blending demand is OK, but the downstream demand of chemical industry continues to be weak, and the price difference between toluene and xylene exists, so the demand for xylene is limited, and the decline of xylene may expand. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, and the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory and outer disk on mixed xylene price.
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