1、 Price data

As of May 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8180.75 yuan / ton, up 0.31% from 8155.75 yuan / ton on May 16. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8200-8300 yuan / ton.

As of May 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8055.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with 8055.00 yuan / ton on May 16. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 8100-8200 yuan / ton.

On May 22, the naphtha commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.99% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 139.04% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fluctuated this week, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal demand was not significantly good, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates, and the market focus has gradually got rid of the fear of demand, and the focus has gradually returned to the expectation of supply tightening. The short-term market is still affected by the expected impact of EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, and oil prices are strongly supported. The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warned that the market would see more than 7 million barrels of Russian oil and other liquid oil export losses per day. As the ability of many oil producing countries in the world to increase production rapidly is limited, the oil price may remain high in the foreseeable future, and the crude oil market price is strongly supported. Especially at present, the epidemic still plays a role, and the future demand may become the biggest constraint on the oil price. Of course, under the background of the Russian Ukrainian war, Russia’s oil supply is affected by intensive Western sanctions. The current situation is more complex. The impact of oil prices from the supply side will play a role in the long term to further offset the negative impact of the demand side.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, toluene rose broadly this week. The price was 7540 yuan / ton on May 13 and 7860 yuan / ton on May 20, up 4.24% from last week. The price of mixed xylene rose this week. The price was 7660 yuan / ton on May 13 and 7810 yuan / ton on May 20, up 1.96% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 6.45% from 9300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil price fluctuates, the naphtha market is generally traded, and the terminal is not significantly good. The market just needs procurement, and the market has strong wait-and-see mood. At present, there is procurement demand for local refining and reorganization, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha may rise slightly in the near future.