In the first half of January 2026, the domestic dichloromethane market showed a trend of first suppression and then rebound, with strong fluctuations. The core logic is “supply contraction+cost increase+rigid demand bottoming out”. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 15th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was reported at 1732 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.06% from the beginning of the month.
On the supply side, high construction rates and expected destocking support a rebound in prices
After the return of New Year’s Day, the operating rate of methane chloride plants remained at a high level of 81%. The main enterprises were operating at full capacity, and the market supply was under pressure. Enterprises voluntarily lowered prices to reduce inventory. In the middle of the year, the operating rate of the equipment gradually decreased to 75.8%. Some enterprises experienced fluctuations in equipment load, industry supply elasticity contracted, inventory pressure eased, and the willingness of enterprises to raise prices increased, driving continuous price recovery.
Cost side: Dual increase of methanol and liquid chlorine, strengthening the cost support line
Methanol: Expected decrease in import volume coupled with significant destocking at ports. As of January 15th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2269.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.79% from the beginning of the month. Liquid chlorine: downstream stable receipt of chlorine consumption, the ex factory quotation of tank trucks in Shandong region has risen to 300-400 yuan/ton, and the cost pressure on methane chloride enterprises has increased, driving up the price of dichloromethane.
Demand side: Rigid demand supports the bottom
The procurement of essential goods remains stable, and some enterprises’ replenishment operations have driven local transaction volume to increase.
Future outlook:
Supply side operating rate or stability, inventory controllable; On the cost side, methanol and liquid chlorine tend to fluctuate strongly, and cost support continues. On the demand side, attention should be paid to the stocking pace before the Spring Festival, regional weather conditions, and whether the Spring Festival logistics will shrink. It is expected that dichloromethane will maintain stability or operate in a narrow range, making it difficult to support a significant price increase.