Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market generally rose in early February, and the spot prices of various brands increased. As of February 11, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 15000 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 2.74% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, Shandong styrene market fell after rising this week. The raw material pure benzene continued to rise and spit back, and the cost support was weakened, but it was still maintained. The styrene market took profits at high prices, superimposed the short-term supply increment after the festival, and the downstream is still in the stage of returning to work one after another, with insufficient spot transactions. In addition, some new styrene units have output, which is bad for the market.

The price of acrylonitrile was weak this week. The shipment of new equipment put into operation before the festival and the current operating rate of the industry was about 90%, which increased the supply and was bad for the spot market. The inventory of enterprises and society is high, the follow-up of downstream textile enterprises is not as expected, the business confidence is not strong, and the price is reduced.

The domestic butadiene market rose again this week. Boosted by the high prices of external market and some domestic suppliers, the mentality of merchants after the festival is relatively strong, but some downstream industries are affected by policies and have poor start-up, the demand recovery is less than expected, dragging the market transaction is not smooth, and the market focus is slightly weakened.

The overall upstream market of ABS rose and fell this week, with general cost support. In terms of industry load, after the festival, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises was high, the overall supply was high and the prognosis was abundant. The implementation of destocking in the industry before the festival was good, and the ex factory price of enterprises increased after the festival, but the buyers did not follow up after the rise. In terms of downstream demand, the current terminal enterprises are in the resumption stage, and the demand has not been fully launched. After the merchant’s offer rose, the shipping resistance increased, and the rise of ABS spot was blocked.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the ABS spot market generally rose in early February, and the upstream three material trends rose and fell respectively, which generally supports the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot prices are mainly affected by the high load and abundant supply of the industry. After the festival, the demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is not complete, the circulation of high price goods in the market is blocked, and the on-site trading is insufficient. It is expected that the ABS spot market may rise and callback in the short term.