In 2021, the domestic civil liquefied gas market fluctuated frequently and greatly, showing an overall trend of first improving and then restraining, and the price is still mainly rising. According to the annual comparison chart of business society, the highest point in 2021 has broken through the new height of liquefied gas market in the past seven years, and the liquefied gas civil market has returned to the era of 6000 yuan. It also deduces a rare trend of “not light in the off-season and not prosperous in the peak season”. During the year, the liquefied gas market rose and fell like a “roller coaster” for many times.
It can be seen from the 2021 LNG trend chart of business society that the LPG market showed a trend of shock and rise in the first three quarters of 2021 until the “roller coaster” market appeared in the fourth quarter, and the LPG market ended in weakness at the end of 2021.
The business agency selected the domestic representative Shandong civil market for monitoring. The average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 3490.00 yuan / ton on January 1 and 4896.00 yuan / ton on December 21, with an increase of 40.29% during the year. The lowest point of the year occurred on January 1, the average price of civil gas in Shandong was 3490.00 yuan / ton, the highest point occurred on October 22, the average price of civil gas in Shandong was 6744.00 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude was 93.24%.
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It can be seen from the monthly k-column chart of business society that from January to October 2021, the liquefied gas market in Shandong increased to varying degrees, of which the increase was the most obvious in October, with a monthly increase of 13.59%. By November, the liquefied gas market in Shandong decreased, with a decrease of 9.37%.
It can be seen from the comparison trend chart of the term of the business community that the trend of the liquefied gas spot market in 2021 is not different, and it also shows a trend of high first and then low. In addition to the decline of futures and the rise of spot from late March to early April, the trend is relatively unified. The spot market began to weaken in October.
As a by-product of crude oil, the trend of international crude oil this year still has a great impact on LPG. In 2021, crude oil has been advancing all the way and rising in shock. According to the monitoring of business society, WTI crude oil surged from $48 at the beginning of the year to $80 in late October, and fell in shock in the two months at the end of the year. As of December 22, WTI rose 46.94% and Brent crude oil rose 43.29%. The core logic of the rise in oil prices in 2021 is basically highly related to the evolution trend of the epidemic. In addition, under the macro background of inflation expectations, supply tightening and economic recovery also provide impetus for the rise of oil prices.
Review of Civil liquefied gas market in 2021:
The liquefied gas market rose sharply and rose after falling sharply
The first quarter is new year’s day and Spring Festival, and the trend of liquefied gas is greatly affected by holidays. The beginning of the year continued last year (2020) at the end of the year, the market was favorable and sufficient, and the liquefied gas market rose rapidly. The introduction of the sharp rise in CP price in January, the sharp rise in international crude oil and the demand for downstream storage and replenishment after the festival all supported the rise in liquefied gas price and ushered in a short start. Then, due to the rapid rise in price, the downstream was dominated by delisting and wait-and-see with the end of replenishment, the market trading atmosphere was significantly weaker than that in the early stage, and the manufacturers were out of business The goods were blocked, the price was rationally corrected and fell back to the pre holiday level. After the Spring Festival, the price rose again. At the end of the first quarter, the price of civil gas in Shandong rose to 4000 yuan / ton.
The LPG market continued to rise, and the center of gravity moved upward
The second quarter continued the rising trend of the first quarter, and the focus of liquefied gas price continued to move upward. The downstream inventory and replenishment demand before and after the Qingming holiday has a good enthusiasm for entering the market, and the market trading atmosphere is positive. In the second quarter, the market entered the stage of centralized maintenance. Refineries were overhauled one after another, and the market supply decreased accordingly. In addition, the international crude oil fluctuated upward, and the news was good for the market mentality. Although the increase in the second quarter was not as good as that in the first quarter, the overall performance was still dominated by the above actors.
The off-season LPG market breaks through the 5000 yuan mark
In the third quarter, July and August entered the traditional off-season demand. The liquefied gas market interpreted the off-season market, and the price continued to be dominated. In the third quarter, the trend of liquefied gas was twists and turns. The continuous rise of Saudi Aramco CP price, the relative high of international crude oil and the rise of LPG futures market brought obvious support to the liquefied gas market. Under the situation of weak terminal demand, the liquefied gas market was strong and upward. Only in late August, affected by the sharp decline of international crude oil, there was a short decline, followed by the “golden nine”, the price of liquefied gas continued to rise, and the price exceeded the level of 5000 yuan / ton.
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The liquefied gas market showed an “inverted V” trend, and the price reached a new high in 7 years
In the fourth quarter, the liquefied gas market rose first and then declined, falling more than rising. After entering the “silver ten”, the market continued to rise. After the eleventh small holiday, the downstream market replenishment was active, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, the inventory was pressureless, and the mentality was strong. International crude oil continued to rise, and the news was good for the market mentality. The sharp rise of CP propane butane in October brought a significant boost to the domestic market. In terms of demand, with the cooling of the weather in the north, the terminal demand increased significantly. Liquefied gas rose to the highest point in the year on October 22, and also reached a new height in recent seven years. The price of civil gas in Shandong rose to above 6700 yuan / ton.
At the end of October, the market continued to rise with insufficient power, entered the downward channel, and the weakness continued until the end of the year. During this period, the international crude oil fluctuated and fell, the CP price fell in December, and the market was not supported. With the price rising to a high level, the downstream has limited acceptance capacity, has resistance to high prices, has poor enthusiasm for entering the market, coupled with insufficient follow-up on market demand, the cooling in some areas is not obvious, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, the downstream makes up more on demand, and the manufacturer’s shipment is blocked. In addition, the LPG futures market fluctuated and fell, bringing significant pressure to the spot market. Although the traditional peak season of the market has not passed, the weakness is difficult to change. As of December 22, the price of civil gas in Shandong fell back below 5000 yuan / ton.
Future forecast:
In 2020, affected by the world public health, the demand for liquefied gas was weak, and the price fell again and again. However, in 2021, with the gradual recovery of demand, the price of liquefied gas rebounded, and the rise was crazy, which showed that the off-season was not light and the golden nine silver ten came as promised. During the year, the rise of international crude oil was obvious, and the liquefied gas market followed up many times, In addition, the upward CP price of Saudi Aramco has also brought obvious support to the domestic market. Although the peak season is not over near the end of the year, and the liquefied gas market is constrained by insufficient terminal demand, it is difficult to change its weakness in the short term, compared with the same period last year, the price of civil gas in Shandong is still at a high level. It is estimated that the trend of liquefied gas in 2022 may be different from that of this year, or it may be weak first and then strong. However, as a by-product of crude oil, we still need to pay more attention to the trend of international crude oil.
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