In the first half of December, domestic liquid ammonia experienced a process of falling first and then bottoming up. Last week, the market was still affected by the weakness of both supply and demand. The prices in Shandong and Hebei fell sharply, generally more than 300 yuan / ton. Since this week, driven by the urea market, the price of liquid ammonia has stabilized and rebounded, with an increase of more than 100 yuan in Shandong, Hebei, southwest and northwest. However, the market has not yet rebounded to the price at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 15, the overall decline of liquid ammonia was 1.55%. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4100-4300 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, under the background of supply guarantee policy, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises remains relatively high. The ammonia release in the main production area increased significantly. In addition to the previous maintenance devices, there were few new maintenance devices in the market. The overall supply of liquid ammonia remained loose. The price fell significantly in the first and second weeks of December. Since this week, the supply of liquid ammonia in Shandong and surrounding areas has been significantly tightened, and the amount of ammonia released by enterprises has decreased. Boosted by this, the price has stabilized and rebounded.

 
At present, the price of liquid ammonia is still suppressed by the cost side. Affected by the regulation and control, the coal price continued to decline. Since December, the market has been weak. According to the monitoring of business society, the monthly decline of power coal was 0.23% as of the 15th. Under the influence of the policy, the tight supply situation was alleviated, the release of production capacity was greatly strengthened, and the price of thermal coal decreased. The sales of coal in the main producing area is now poor, the pace of market procurement has slowed down, and the inventory on the mine has increased; In terms of ports, the market wait-and-see mood is still strong. Traders have reduced prices and promoted sales, and the actual transaction is biased towards the low end. The power plant is not willing to replenish the warehouse, and multi-dimensional maintenance is mainly based on purchasing.

On the demand side, urea has followed the trend of liquid ammonia since December, falling first and then rising. As of December 15, the monthly decline since December was 1.76%. The previous decline was mainly due to oversupply. Since last week, with the expected increase in the maintenance of southwest gas head unit, the urea price has obviously warmed up. Demand has also improved. In terms of agricultural fertilizer, downstream manufacturers purchase on bargain hunting and stock up. In industry, the inventory of downstream rubber plate factory also has a downward trend, and the trading volume is slightly higher. However, the main tone of the market is still affected by environmental protection and has not been substantially improved.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the price difference has basically remained reasonable since December.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the liquid ammonia industry chain is still weak, and the prices of many downstream products have decreased significantly, especially ammonium chloride, melamine and other products.

Future forecast: the business community believes that in the short term, the price supply and demand of liquid ammonia will basically maintain a balanced pattern. The market will be supported by local favorable conditions, and the price will show regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in the main production areas such as Shandong and Hebei will stabilize one after another. Due to the expected impact of device maintenance in the southwest, there is still room for upward price.