Commodity index: on December 10, polyacrylamide commodity index was 109.90, up 0.38 points from yesterday, down 1.44% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 32.59% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

So far this month, crude oil has continued to rebound and fell again, the price of petrochemical raw materials has continued to be weak, and the pressure on the production cost of water treatment has decreased; Despite the impact of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, limited production and shutdown in many places, and the commencement of basic chemicals affect the market supply, due to the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products has been adjusted slightly. Since December, the polyacrylamide market has experienced a small adjustment, but the overall adjustment range is small. According to the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), polyacrylamide in China in the first ten days (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) the market was flat after a slight shock, that is, the mainstream market price was about 17987 yuan / ton on the 1st, about 17987 yuan / ton on the 10th, and about 17925 yuan / ton on the 7th-9th in the middle, with an earthquake of 0.35% in the first ten days. Recently, the market demand was weak and the transaction was average, but the operating rate was affected by environmental protection requirements, which supported the market to a certain extent.

The market of raw material acrylonitrile fluctuated in early December and has risen by about 150 yuan / ton so far this month. It is reported that the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity will reach 3.159 million tons / year after the commissioning of lihuayi unit in mid December, an increase of 650000 tons over last year; As Fushun Petrochemical, Shanghai Secco, silbon petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical took turns to stop for maintenance in the fourth quarter, which gave good support to the market, the market generally expects that the acrylonitrile market will continue to run higher in the fourth quarter.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid fell in early December. The average price of acrylic acid in East China on the 1st was 17000 yuan / ton, and the average market price on the 10th was 14900 yuan / ton, down 12.35%. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw propylene was lowered, the cost support was weakened, the inventory of production plants was low, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, the inquiry and transaction were general, and the market was weak and stable. With the return of the price of raw propylene, the cost support was improved, the market supply was sufficient, the downstream demand was not followed up, the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the inquiry and transaction were depressed, and the market price fell again; The acrylic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost support is limited, and the market supply is sufficient, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be weak in the short term.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, since December, the price of domestic LNG has fluctuated and fell all the way, and then stabilized slightly. The average price of domestic LNG on the 1st was 5340 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic LNG on the 10th was 5220 yuan / ton, down 2.25%. The focus shifted downward. According to the analysis of business society, at present, the supply of domestic LNG market is increasingly abundant, the demand is poor, the market trading is weakened, the enterprise inventory is increased, and the price is declining. The actual transaction is mainly negotiation. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to be weak.

As for the future, there is some support after the sharp decline of crude oil, and bulk commodities are weak. Raw material prices rise and fall, the market support is unstable, the downstream demand is general, and there is no risk of significant weakening of polyacrylamide trend, which is generally stable; Although the environmental protection and dual control policies in many cities in winter led to manufacturers’ production restriction and shutdown, the weak demand led to a weak market. In the current environment, polyacrylamide market is expected to be stable in the short term.