1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners continued to decline this week. On November 28, the average price of Shandong market was 2320.75 yuan / ton, which was 7.01% lower than that of 2495.75 yuan / ton on November 22.

On November 28, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 180.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.16% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 169.85% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The operating rate of refineries rose this week, with positive shipment and general trading. The inventory of some refineries was high, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement was general, and the goods were prepared carefully.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose first and then declined this week. U.S. President Biden sought ways to reduce gasoline prices for U.S. consumers, repeatedly mentioned the idea of releasing U.S. strategic oil reserves, and called on China, Japan and South Korea to release crude oil reserves. As soon as the news came out, crude oil prices fell sharply. On the other hand, at present, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) production increase policy is still relatively conservative, and they still do not show the willingness to expand the scale of production increase under the pressure from the United States. In particular, the market is worried that if the US government continues to suppress oil prices and make oil prices fall sharply, OPEC + may even consider stopping production increase to offset the adverse impact of the decline in oil prices on the recovery of global oil capital expenditure.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke fell this week; Metal silicon market continues to decline; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of November 28, the price was 19233.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 47th week of 2021 (11.22-11.26), there are 8 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.25%), WTI crude oil (3.23%) and asphalt (2.77%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coking coal (- 10.84%), coke (- 7.05%) and petroleum coke (- 7.01%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.56%.

Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that the operating rate of local refiners has increased recently, the inventory of petroleum coke is high, the shipment is general, the downstream demand is weakened, the procurement enthusiasm is general, and the goods are prepared carefully. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may continue to decline in the near future.