Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 2820.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 63.01% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market was temporarily stable this week, and the urea commodity index was 131.16 on August 6.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is tight, and the logistics transportation is limited

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week is temporarily stable. Yangmei plain urea has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2820 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Open water chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall fell slightly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 5476.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.05%, a year-on-year increase of 111.10% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 1095.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 93.12% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell slightly. The quotation fell from 4883.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.17%, up 60.89% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable this week, with a price of 13333.33 yuan / ton.

From the aspect of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. In terms of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, and the parking and maintenance plants are relatively concentrated. The daily output of domestic urea has decreased to about 138000 tons, with a significant reduction in daily output. In terms of transportation: affected by the epidemic situation in some areas, logistics and transportation are limited. On the whole, the urea cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is tight, and the logistics transportation is limited.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the middle of August, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that although the maintenance of urea plant is still tight and the supply is tight, at present, the agricultural demand everywhere is declining, the industrial demand is general, the downstream merchants have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high-priced urea, and the future market price may fluctuate or fall slightly.