1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the trend of domestic toluene market was stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3500 yuan / ton, down 1.41% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

The overall price of toluene this week is stable. At present, the downstream demand is general, the market trading atmosphere is not active, and the port inventory is declining. Compared with the previous period, the market price is slightly stronger. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3470 yuan / ton. As the outlook for crude oil supply and demand is not clear, the market is concerned about the trend of oil price and the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of the global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the supply side and demand side formed expected pressure on oil prices during the Dragon Boat Festival: shale oil production in the United States rose sharply; the second outbreak of the global epidemic was confirmed; and the trade friction between Europe and the United States continued to escalate. Affected by this, crude oil prices briefly broke through the previous high and then fell back, and the probability of oil price fluctuations in the future increased. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was down 4.51%, Brent futures was down 5.14%, WTI futures was down 2.96%, and Dubai futures was down 2.19%.

In terms of downstream, TDI, the market as a whole is weak, and the decline is obvious. The dealer’s offer continues to go down, and the downstream mentality tends to be cautious. For the domestic goods with bill of lading in East China, the reference is 10100-10400 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai is 10600-10800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will still be weak and focus on the factory operation after the festival. In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 534 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 552 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

In the short term, the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling wells and EIA inventory situation are considered by toluene analysts of business club chemical branch. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic market price of toluene will adjust slightly next week.

Business agency: the trend of isomeric xylene is stable this week, and the price is slightly sluggish (June 22 – June 28)

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market price was stable this week, with the average domestic price of 3680 yuan / ton as of Friday, which was flat compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of isomeric xylene is generally stable, compared with the previous period, the market price is slightly sluggish, and the transaction is not active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3700 yuan / ton. As the outlook for crude oil supply and demand is not clear, the market is concerned about the trend of oil price and the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of the global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the supply side and demand side formed expected pressure on oil prices during the Dragon Boat Festival: shale oil production in the United States rose sharply; the second outbreak of the global epidemic was confirmed; and the trade friction between Europe and the United States continued to escalate. Affected by this, crude oil prices briefly broke through the previous high and then fell back, and the probability of oil price fluctuations in the future increased. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was down 4.51%, Brent futures was down 5.14%, WTI futures was down 2.96%, and Dubai futures was down 2.19%.

In terms of downstream, PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest external price is about 534 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 552 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market price is about 3670 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 444 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene price is stable at 4400 yuan / T, and the external price of o-benzene is about 515 US dollars / ton FOB Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will maintain a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of oil drilling in the United States and EIA inventory situation in the supply cost side. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic market price of toluene will adjust slightly next week.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP rose in June, while the price of DOP rose slowly. As of June 28, the price of DOP in East China was 7366.67 yuan / ton, up 5.49% from 6983.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 2.79% from last year.

Cost factor

From the trend chart of raw material phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride rose sharply in June, and then it remained stable. In the first ten days of June, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride rose, and the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and remained stable in the middle and last ten days of June. In general, phthalic anhydride rose in the first ten days of June, and DOP rose strongly. Since the middle and last ten days of June, phthalic anhydride market has remained stable, and DOP market rose weakly with some downward pressure.

From the trend chart of octanol price, it can be seen that octanol price rose steadily in June, DOP cost rose steadily, and DOP rose strongly.

Industry chain factors

From the PVC price trend chart, we can see that PVC price rose sharply in early June, and then PVC price fluctuated and remained stable. In late June, PVC price fluctuated and fell, PVC market fell, and DOP demand was mainly rigid demand, PVC market fell, increasing the pressure on DOP.

Market overview and future expectation

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, in terms of raw materials, the prices of DOP raw materials remained high in June, the cost of DOP fluctuated and increased, and the pressure of DOP increased; in terms of demand, the price of PVC fell in late June, the demand of DOP was mainly based on rigid demand, the enthusiasm of downstream customers’ procurement decreased, and the negative pressure on DOP increased. Generally speaking, the future DOP’s upward momentum is weakened and downward pressure is increased. It is expected that the future DOP’s market will fluctuate and maintain stability.

The operating rate of refineries remained high, the supply of refined oil was sufficient, the demand of terminal market was insufficient, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic gasoline price this week (the week of June 19) is 4955.17 yuan / ton, 1.24% lower than that of last week. The domestic diesel price is 4895 yuan / ton, 0.84% lower than last week’s diesel price.

According to data, China imported 47.97 million tons of crude oil in May, up 19.2% year on year. A large number of crude oil is imported, and domestic refineries are also operating at full capacity. The data shows that in the first ten days of June, the operating rate of main refineries rose to about 71%, and that of Shandong local refineries rose to 76%. The domestic supply of gasoline and diesel is sufficient. In April, the apparent consumption of refined oil was 27.64 million tons, up 2.1% year on year, of which gasoline was up 4.53% year on year and diesel was up 13.4% year on year.

In terms of demand, the demand is not good enough. In terms of gasoline, the high temperature in summer, the downstream consumption in most areas of the North continues to be good, and the demand in some areas of the south is reduced due to rainfall. In terms of diesel oil, traditional industries such as engineering, infrastructure, mining and so on still support the market, but the downstream stock demand is relatively low.

This week, the international crude oil price is in the rebound trend after the fall, but the recent international crude oil market is not good enough to follow up, and the international oil price cannot break the floor price of $40 / barrel price adjustment of refined oil, which has limited support to the domestic market price of refined oil.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that the current production reduction agreement continues to underpin oil prices, but there is still the possibility of a second outbreak of the new crown epidemic. In addition, the domestic oil product supply is sufficient, and it is expected that the domestic oil product price will continue to be slightly reduced by about 100 yuan / ton next week.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong at the beginning of this week was 4466 yuan / ton, while the weekend price was 4433 yuan / ton, down 0.75%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4100 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Polyoxymethylene is light and stable.

According to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol, the domestic methanol fell by about 0.16% this week; the downstream market demand of POM is general, and the summer is the traditional off-season, which depresses the price of POM.

3、 Future forecast

Downstream demand is limited, the business community POM analysts think: price or will maintain stable operation.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of the 19th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5550 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton or 1.83% compared with the beginning of this week (15th); compared with the beginning of this month (1st), the price was reduced by 16 yuan / ton, down 0.30%, and the maximum amplitude from June 1st to 19th was 2.40%. On June 18, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index was 44.70, up 0.13 points from yesterday, down 55.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and up 49.55% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In the first ten days of June, affected by the restart of some units and the weakness of raw materials, the downstream wait-and-see mood was heavy, the trading atmosphere turned weak, and the n-butanol market fell all the way.

In the first three days of June, the market was in stable operation as a whole, and downstream procurement was on demand, with general market transactions. On April 4, due to the excessive inventory in some areas of n-butanol, the factory delivered the goods at a profit, and the market price of n-butanol decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Then, the market of n-butanol did not continue to decline, and the increase of propylene still provided cost support. Until the weekend (7), the market of n-butanol remained stable, the manufacturer mainly delivered orders, and the downstream just needed replenishment. On August 8, some n-butanol plant units were restarted, the supply side was relatively sufficient, coupled with the influence of weak propylene raw material, the downstream wait-and-see mood was heavy, the trading atmosphere turned weak, and the market price fell slightly. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on August 8, the average ex factory price of n-butanol dropped to 5466 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, down 1.80% compared with the beginning of the month.

On the 11th, with the resumption of some factories and the increase of sales, the inventory of n-butanol was too much, the downstream maintained just needed replenishment, the operation was cautious, and the quotation of some factories was slightly reduced again, with a reduction of 50 yuan / ton. Then the market was weak and reorganized to the weekend. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the average ex factory price of n-butanol on the 14th was 5433 yuan / ton, down 133 yuan compared with the price on the 1st of June Yuan / ton, down 2.40%.

Low half month end up n-butanol strong rally this week

Starting from this week, on the 15th, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China was increased. The main reason for the increase was that the willingness of some butanol units to switch to octanol was enhanced due to the high price difference between butanol and octanol. In addition, some factories stopped for maintenance, the inventory of n-butanol was low, the supply of goods was tight, the downstream just needed replenishment, the trading atmosphere was improved, and the factory’s offer was firm. On the 15th, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 5500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 1.85% compared with the price at the end of last week (12 days); the ex factory quotation of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. in East China was 5500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 1.85% compared with the price at the end of last week (12 days). Then this week, the supply of main n-butanol factories continued to be tight, and the overall market quotation moved up. In addition, the cost of propylene increased, which gave support to the cost of n-butanol. The factory inventory was low, the downstream purchasing atmosphere continued to improve, and the market low price quotation continued to decrease. This week, the quotation of n-butanol continued to rise. As of the 19th, the ex factory quotation of Wanhua chemical in East China is 5600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton this week; the ex factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is 5450 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton this week; the ex factory quotation of Luxi n-butanol is 5600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton this week. At present, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol is 5550 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of this week (15th), 1.83% higher; 86 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of last week (8th), 1.50% higher; 16 yuan / ton lower, 0.30% lower than that at the beginning of this month (1st), and the maximum amplitude from June 1st to 19th is 2.40%.

Upstream, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise this week. After a week’s rally in early June, Shandong propylene market showed a significant correction in the middle of the price. According to the price of the business agency, last week’s 7-day cumulative decline of 350 yuan / ton. But at the end of the week, the price stopped falling and recovered. Today, the price has risen 250-350 yuan / ton continuously. Now, the market turnover is between 6750-6950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6750 yuan / ton. At present, propylene manufacturers are in good condition of delivery, no inventory pressure. On the 16th of this week, the price of crude oil was significantly increased and the market was bullish, which had a certain pull-up effect on propylene. On the other hand, the downstream propylene plant has a good profit, a high enthusiasm for receiving goods, a positive market procurement and an active overall atmosphere.

According to analysts of n-butanol, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol market is good at present, the confidence of operators is improved, and the short-term factory sales pressure is reduced. It is expected that the negotiation center of domestic n-butanol market will continue to rise next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic xylene market price rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3830 yuan / ton, up 2.13% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the impact of this week’s surge in international crude oil, the current market wait-and-see atmosphere has increased sharply, and the port inventory is average. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3700 yuan / ton. Due to the uncertain prospect of crude oil supply and demand, the future market will focus on the trend of oil price and wait for stabilization.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the market is worried about the risk of the second spread of the epidemic, which led to the surge in crude oil prices this week. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent fell 4.19%, Brent futures fell 4.76%, WTI futures fell 8.07%, and Dubai futures fell 0.51%.

Downstream, in PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4100 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market was about 505 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 525 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will be slightly revised back in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the spot market price of PTA in China is about 3650 yuan / ton, and the external market price is about 425 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will be slightly revised back next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene is stable, at 4300 yuan / ton, and the external price of o-benzene is about 515 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will be slightly revised back next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, in the short term, we can see the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the economic and trade situation between China and the United States, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the trend of crude oil. Overall, we expect xylene prices in the domestic market to adjust next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 12, the average price of the mainstream manufacturers of salicylic acid (industrial grade) was 14666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week (8 days), and the market was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The salicylic acid market is stable this week. After the end of raw materials rose, it became stable, the support was fair, the end demand was stable, the export was slightly improved, there were not many new orders, and it was mainly sold in the domestic market. At present, most of the salicylic acid manufacturers have a stable attitude towards volume, and the market is stable. Most of the manufacturers have no price adjustment plan for the time being. As of June 12, the industrial price of chemical salicylic acid in Maoyuan, Zhenjiang is about 15000 yuan / ton, the pharmaceutical price is 24000 yuan / ton, and the sublimation price is 22000 yuan / ton. The industrial price of salicylic acid in Hebei Jingye Chemical Co., Ltd. is about 14000 yuan / ton, the pharmaceutical price is 29000 yuan / ton, and the sublimation price is 20000 yuan / ton. The industrial price of salicylic acid in Shandong Longxin pharmaceutical industry is about 15500 yuan / ton, the factory price of pharmaceutical grade is about 25300 yuan / ton, the factory price of sublimation grade is about 18300 yuan / ton, and the factory price of methyl salicylate is about 24300 yuan / ton.

Upstream, from the cost point of view, phenol’s overall upward trend has been temporarily stopped. The negotiation in East China fell from 8000 yuan / ton in the past few days to 7800-7850 yuan / ton. In the view of the business community, although phenol still has a downward trend. In terms of sulfuric acid, from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the manufacturer’s inventory is small, and the downstream demand is low. According to analysts of business association sulfuric acid, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in Shandong market in the short term, sulfuric acid market may decline slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to salicylic acid analysts of the business agency, the current cost end support is acceptable, and the terminal demand is stable, but the transaction atmosphere is not warm and not hot, and the manufacturer keeps a stable volume. It is expected that the salicylic acid market will continue to maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of June 5, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream (the average price of SG5 produced by calcium carbide method) was 6337.5 yuan / ton, and the price at the beginning of the week was 6112.5 yuan / ton. The average price in the week rose 225 yuan, or 3.68%, down 6.11% compared with the same period last year. The lowest point in the cycle is April, and the maximum amplitude is 17.09%.

2、 Market analysis

In the first week of June, the PVC spot market continued to rise strongly, with the average price rising more than 200 yuan in the week, and the mainstream price was mostly around 6300. This week, the price of PVC rose significantly, and the futures continued to rise to above 6300. The spot market followed the rise. In some regions, the price has been adjusted many times, and the futures fell down near the weekend. However, the willingness of the spot market to callback is not strong, and businesses are mainly on the lookout. This week’s fundamental preference is that the shortage of goods supply in some areas of PVC has not improved, the on-site arrival is limited, the social inventory continues to decline, and the manufacturer’s shipment is not under pressure. Meanwhile, the domestic infrastructure demand gradually increases. The data shows that the average new housing transaction area in the first tier cities continues to rise on a month on month basis, with a month on month increase of 20.1%. The real estate demand drives the PVC market to rise, and some downstream factories start construction The rate reached the level of the same period last year, but in the face of the rising price of PVC, the downstream enterprises are not enthusiastic about receiving goods, maintaining rigid demand, purchasing cautiously, and the overall transaction atmosphere is not warm or hot. However, driven by the strong price sentiment of PVC merchants, the PVC price callback is not large. Moreover, in June, there are still maintenance plans for PVC enterprises, such as Tangshan Sanyou, Xinjiang Tianye, Dezhou Shihua, Zhonggu mining, etc. PVC maintenance loss and operation rate are declining, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure for the time being, the order situation is good, the supply side is good to support PVC price rising, and the short-term market is still optimistic.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 5, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6000-6400 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 6270-6370 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is around 6250-6350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6350-6450 yuan / ton, and the prices of all regions are increased.

Upstream: on June 4, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of major contracts rising by $0.12 to $37.41/barrel. Brent crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was $39.99/barrel, up $0.20. The market waited for the results of OPEC + meeting, and the oil price was more volatile. The crude oil market rose slightly, which supported the cost of ethylene. The price of ethylene continued to rise. The price of styrene in the downstream rose slightly, and the ethanol market was consolidated at a high level, which supported the price of ethylene. This week, the ethylene market went all the way up.

The price of raw materials is low and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. PVC market in the lower reaches is gradually rising, customers in the lower reaches are more active in purchasing calcium carbide, and the supply of calcium carbide is tight. Later, calcium carbide rose slightly in shock.

This week, the rubber and plastic market rose sharply, while the rubber and plastic products rose more or fell less, with the overall growth expanding month on month. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices in the 22nd week of 2020 (6.1-6.5), there are 14 kinds of commodities rising month on month in rubber and plastic sector, with PVC (3.68%), natural rubber (2.47%) and PP (drawing) (2.40%) as the top three commodities. There are four kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were cis-1.44%, SBR (- 0.93%) and PA66 (- 0.53%). This week’s average was up or down 1.19%. Overall, this week’s rubber and plastic market in the cost side support, supply and demand side of the game, speculation factors, the formation of the overall sharp rise, the trend of differentiation of the rise and fall of various products.

3、 Future forecast

According to PVC analysts of the business club, there are still enterprise overhauls in the near future, with large capacity, positive recovery of downstream products industry, and strong support for cost end. PVC fundamentals as a whole are still preferred, and the focus is constantly rising, and it is expected that there will be further rise in the short term.

In the second half of 2020, looking back on the first half of 2020, the market of DME is relatively low, and the overall trend is fluctuating and falling, especially after the Spring Festival, it is on the way down “never to return”. On January 1, 2020, the average market price of dimethyl ether in Henan Province was 3116.67 yuan / ton, and on June 7, 2243.33 yuan / ton, down 28.02% during the period, with an earthquake amplitude of 32.83%.

The market price of dimethyl ether breaks the new low in 8 years

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, by June 7, 2020, the price of dimethyl ether had broken the new low level in the past eight years. On June 7, 2012, the average market price of dimethyl ether was 4231.25 yuan / ton, and on June 7, 2020, the average market price was 2243.33 yuan / ton, with a decline of 46.98% during the period and an earthquake amplitude of 55.98%. As can be seen from the above figure, since October 2018, DME has been greatly affected by the policy, and the market price has declined broadly.

The market trend in the first half of 2020 can be divided into four stages

Overall, in the first half of 2020, the market of DME can be divided into four stages: the first stage is from January 1 to February 3, during the period from New Year’s day to the Spring Festival, the trend of DME shows a fluctuating upward trend; the second stage is from February 3 to March 31, after the Spring Festival, the market continues to be depressed, and the trend shows a continuous downward trend; the third stage is from April 1 to April 19, affected by the products of the industrial chain, DME ushers in the market The fourth stage is from April 19 to June 8. After the DME market returns to rationality, it goes down again.

The short-term “success” in 2020

After new year’s day and before the Spring Festival, the trend of dimethyl ether is in an upward trend. Continuing the upward trend at the end of 2019, dimethyl ether ushered in a “good start” in 2020. Before the Spring Festival, the international crude oil continued to push up, supporting the domestic gas price to go higher. In addition, the Saudi Aramco CP price rose sharply in January, which promoted the continuous rise of civil gas. Dimethyl ether was boosted by the second best, and its price kept rising. Subsequently, civil gas fell, but dimethyl ether did not follow the decline, but continued to rise. Before the festival, manufacturers stopped one after another, so that the original low operating rate of dimethyl ether continued to decline, and the market supply was limited, which brought good support to the market. The manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the stock is free of pressure, the price is firm and up until the Spring Festival.

Large reduction of terminal demand, DME “rising trend no longer”

After the Spring Festival, the trend of dimethyl ether showed a continuous downward trend. Affected by the social and public health events, the Spring Festival holiday is extended, the transportation of all cities is closed, the downstream is in a state of overall shutdown, and the terminal demand is greatly reduced. Although the operating rate of DME is at a low level at this time, the transaction atmosphere is light, and the market is still in a situation where supply exceeds demand. At the end of February, the international crude oil plunged sharply, and the civil gas market once again fell into a deadlock due to this impact, with the overall downward trend as the main trend. The price difference between gas and ether has gradually narrowed, and the market of dimethyl ether has “made matters worse”, once again under pressure. In March, with the development of social public health events, downstream enterprises have recovered, terminal demand has increased compared with the previous period, and DME manufacturers have basically entered the comprehensive production state. However, the international crude oil continues to decline, mainly falling, which depresses the decline of civil gas market. The price of gas and ether is basically the same, and the cost of methanol is also affected by this. The DME market has multiple negative effects, which is difficult to twist Turn the situation, mainly falling, some enterprises were forced to reduce production load.

Propylene skyrocketed and DME “followed the trend”

At this stage, DME ushered in the “irrational” upward market. At the beginning of April, the international crude oil soared, driving the cost of methanol and liquefied gas up for civil use. Affected by the Qingming holiday, the downstream storage and replenishment operation was more active in the market, the manufacturer’s shipment was more smooth, the inventory was released, and the price rose, but the increase was limited. The main reason for the sharp upward trend at this stage is that on April 12-14, the wide upward trend of polypropylene led to the sharp rise of propylene. Propane, as the upstream of propylene, also led to a sharp rise in the price during the period, while liquefied gas, driven by the sharp rise of propane, pushed up continuously, and the price difference between gas and ether gradually opened, which once again brought benefits to the market of dimethyl ether. Henan xinlianxin raised the factory price for four consecutive days, and dimethyl ether took advantage of the rising trend.

Market “return to rationality” price drops sharply

Due to the lack of substantial positive results in the third stage of the rise, the civil market of liquefied gas fell sharply, with dimethyl ether mainly falling, the market ushered in a rational correction, and the price fell sharply. With the completion of a new round of replenishment in the downstream, many of them have left the market to wait and see, with a more cautious attitude. In addition, during this period, the cost of methanol continuously bottomed out, and the supply and demand of civil gas market is unbalanced, mainly falling. Affected by seasonal factors, the weather is gradually warming, the terminal demand is reduced, and the replenishment cycle in the downstream is lengthened. DME is about to enter the “traditional off-season”, and the price is easy to fall and hard to rise. As of the end of May, the start-up of dimethyl ether in China was about 13%, down from last month, and the market start-up was at a low level.

As we all know, dimethyl ether can be mixed in liquefied gas as fuel, so the civil trend of liquefied gas has a deep impact on the market of dimethyl ether. As the raw material of dimethyl ether, the trend of methanol in the first half of 2020 is almost the same as that of dimethyl ether. After the Spring Festival, it is difficult to rise and mainly falls.

In the second half of the year, DME may fall first and then rise due to seasonal factors

According to relevant policies, dimethyl ether can only be used alone, not mixed with liquefied gas. However, it is understood that the main application of dimethyl ether Market is mixed with liquefied gas, and industrial use only accounts for a few. So in recent years, with the strengthening of national inspection on mixed gas, some small manufacturers have to shut down, and Henan is the main production area and main sales area of dimethyl ether. This policy However, it can only be digested in the province, which makes the survival of DME difficult and the overall level is low. But in the later stage, the mixed market is still not optimistic. In the short term, the trend of dimethyl ether is greatly affected by crude oil and liquefied gas. In the second half of the year, the trend of dimethyl ether may be strongly affected by seasonal factors, and the overall trend may fall first and then rise.

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of June 5, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product in China, was 37000.00 yuan / ton. The recovery of the car market was slow, and lithium iron phosphate operated in a weak position. Compared with the same period last month, the price of lithium iron phosphate fell by 7.5% and 3000 yuan / ton. From May 25 to June 5, lithium iron phosphate fell by 2.63% and 1000 yuan / ton.

Recently, the price range of lithium iron phosphate power market is 35000-37000 yuan / ton, and the power market is still recovering slowly. The volume of trading is not high, and the price is temporarily stable. At present, the competition of lithium iron phosphate is fierce, and the production capacity is surplus. It takes a long time to digest the inventory in the early stage. The price is difficult to rise in a short period of time. It is understood that Xiangtan electrochemical is building a lithium iron phosphate with an annual output of 20000 tons The production line is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2020. After the production line is put into operation, the total annual output of lithium iron phosphate will reach about 50000 tons. Xiangtan electrochemical Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in battery materials and sewage treatment. In recent two years, it has made a significant improvement in battery materials business. The commencement of the production line of lithium iron phosphate in Xiangtan electrochemical Co., Ltd. has also added a competition to the lithium iron phosphate industry. Lithium iron phosphate batteries are At present, the most commonly used lithium-ion power battery for electric vehicles is mainly due to its good safety performance and low cost. The domestic giant enterprises that produce lithium iron phosphate mainly include BYD, GuoXuan hi tech, Ningde times, etc. the positive material of lithium iron phosphate does not contain cobalt. Because of the scarcity of cobalt, the cost of the positive material will increase by 40%, which is one of the reasons for the low cost of lithium iron phosphate battery At present, the technology of lithium iron phosphate is relatively mature, and the product competition is very stable.

Automobile competition is intensifying. In April 2020, the output of new energy vehicles will be 73000, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. From January to April 2020, the battery demand of passenger vehicles will be 9.32 million, a year-on-year decrease of 48%. In April, the ternary battery will account for 75%. Lithium iron phosphate is relatively weak in operation, but for ordinary consumers, people care more about the price economy, safety, high technology level and cost-effective experience, so The later market of lithium iron phosphate is more recognized by the industry.

The price range of the upstream lithium carbonate battery level is 41000-43500 yuan / ton. At present, the price of lithium carbonate is bearish, the market is pessimistic, businesses are actively shipping, the transaction price is close to the cost line, the space for the price to continue to decline is limited, and the enterprise is under pressure.

Compared with the same period last month, the price of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 7.5%, from 40000 yuan / ton to 37000 yuan / ton, a drop of 3000 yuan / ton, a drop of 2.63% compared with the beginning of last week, a drop of 1000 yuan / ton, and the chemical index on June 4 was 663 points, the same as yesterday, a drop of 34.74% compared with the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and a rise of 10.87% compared with the lowest point 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the analyst of lithium iron phosphate of business association, lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product in China, will maintain stable operation in the short term. (the above prices are provided by the major manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate all over the country and analyzed by the analysts of lithium iron phosphate in the business. For reference only, please contact the relevant manufacturers for more details.)