Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on August 20 was 32.90, unchanged with yesterday, down 67.10% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 20.60% higher than the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
According to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream quotation of Baodao whole milk market was about 10860 yuan / ton on August 1, and 11095 yuan / ton on the 20th, with an increase of 2.16% in half a month. Among them, the highest mainstream quotation on the 7th of this month is 11132 yuan / ton, the lowest is 10822 yuan / ton in three days, and the maximum amplitude is 2.86%. As can be seen from the above figure, since the beginning of July 10089 yuan / ton, the natural rubber market has been fluctuating upward. As of the 20th, 11095 yuan / ton, the upward range has reached 10.34%.
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major factor
The new glue is delayed and the spot glue is in short supply. In 2020, the global special situation and weather caused the opening time of Southeast Asian production area to be delayed, and the output of raw materials was slow. The main production area of natural rubber is now in the supply growth period. However, it is reported that the weather conditions in Southeast Asia are not suck. After the drought, it has entered the rainy season, and some areas have been affected by typhoons, which restricts rubber output. However, it is expected that the overall increment of supply side in the third and fourth quarters is limited. In contrast, in Hainan and Yunnan production areas, tapping has been delayed again and again this year, with drought and pest damage. The rubber output is low. At present, due to the influence of rainy season, the amount of new rubber is seriously affected. According to the local traders, the rubber storehouses in Kunming and Banna of Yunnan Province are empty, and the situation of shortage of goods continues.
The import volume increased year on year, and the mixed rubber increased greatly. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 7, 2020, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 677000 tons, an increase of 22% over the same period last year; from January to July 2020, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 3.809 million tons, an increase of 5% compared with 3.628 million tons in the same period of 2019. From the data of the first half of the year, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 3.313 million tons from January to June 2020, an increase of 1.9% over the same period. From the recent statistical data, natural rubber imports continued to increase in the second and third quarter, while from the perspective of imported varieties, standard rubber fell year-on-year, and mixed rubber increased significantly year-on-year. Among them, the data shows that Vietnam’s export of mixed rubber in the first half of the year increased by 1.4%, while the export volume of Thailand in the first half year decreased year on year: 477300 tons of standard rubber, down 33.83%, 906400 tons of mixed rubber, a 50.64% increase year-on-year; in general, China’s imports of mixed rubber in the first half of the year increased by 17.5%, while the import of standard rubber was only 575100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.05%.
The inventory of imported rubber is high while that of domestic rubber is very low. It is reported that China’s ports such as Qingdao, Shanghai and other ports continue to increase the number of imported rubber, and the stock of spot import warehouses is constantly increasing. However, there is not much local rubber inventory in Hainan and Yunnan, and the domestic rubber supply continues to be tight. It is reported that the local complaints of Kunming and Banna are basically empty. As of August 21, warehouse receipts and futures inventories of the exchange were 248180 tons and 226130 tons respectively, an increase of 10548 tons and a decrease of 220 tons compared with last week. It is reported that the dominant inventory of Qingdao and Shanghai ports and the hidden inventory of production and marketing areas are about 1.1 million tons. It is estimated that the stock of natural rubber in China will reach about 1.5 million tons. The inventory of natural rubber in East China is still high. High port inventory and low Warehouse Receipt Inventory coexist this month.
The operating rate continued to rise slightly. According to the data, as of the week of August 13, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 72.80%, which was flat on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year increase of 26.33%; the operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises was 66.27%, up 1.17% month on month and 3.49% year on year. In the third quarter, the industry situation improved to a certain extent, and the demand continued to recover; the overseas epidemic situation remained grim. According to the semi annual report of 2020, all eight foreign tire giant enterprises lost money. At present, China’s tire export situation is still not optimistic, and the uncertainty in the later stage is still large.
Downstream demand is gradually warming. On August 11, the China Automobile Industry Association held an information conference to officially announce the latest production and sales data of China’s automobile market in July 2020. According to the data, in July, the automobile production and sales continued the warming trend since the second quarter. In that month, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.201 million and 2.12 million, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 21.9% and 16.4% respectively. The contribution of commercial vehicles to the growth of the overall automobile market is still very obvious under the strong pull of trucks. According to the first commercial vehicle network data, in July 2020, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell more than 140000 vehicles of various types, down 16% month on month and up 89% year-on-year. From January to July, the cumulative sales of heavy truck market were about 959200, with a year-on-year increase of 31%. Several groups of data show that the automobile industry has gradually warmed up since the third quarter, and the downstream demand for natural rubber has continued to grow. Although the speed is relatively slow, the golden age, silver and ten are coming, and there are still strong expectations in the industry for the peak season of downstream demand.
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Industry hot spots
Thailand rubber price protection plan: according to Thailand’s news on August 18, the Thai cabinet on Tuesday approved the second phase rubber price guarantee plan dedicated to 2019-20, with a total expenditure of 2.4 billion baht. It is expected that the rubber price guarantee scheme will be opened from now to some time in November, and the guaranteed price of film is up to THB 60 per kg. The state owned Bank of agriculture and agricultural cooperatives (BAAC) will handle the price guarantee program. In October 2019, the Thai government approved the first phase of the rubber price guarantee plan, with a budget of 24.3 billion baht, benefiting 1.7 million rubber farmers and covering 17 million Lai rubber plantations. The second phase of the comprehensive rubber price protection measures in Thailand has benefited 1.8 million rubber farmers. The Thai cabinet approved 24 billion rubber comprehensive price protection measures. The first phase lasted for six months.
Future forecast
According to the analysis of the business agency, the unique local difference of inventory in 2020 is still continuing, and the shortage of domestic rubber is still severe. Without the release of the local index glue in Yunnan, the inventory will be basically emptied, and the imported rubber in Qingdao, Shanghai and other places will continue to increase, and the warehouse receipt inventory will increase significantly. It is rainy season in Southeast Asian rubber producing countries, and the new rubber output is limited. The delayed new rubber production will continue to be delayed. It is expected that the overall output will be reduced in 2020. From the downstream situation, the continuous rise in the operating rate of tire enterprises and the year-on-year increase of automobile sales volume show that the current demand is constantly improving; although the inventory in the north is still high, the industry still gives good expectations for the peak consumption season of Jinjiu Yinshi. From the trend of Tianjiao in recent two months, the trend of Chonggao is strong. In the process of repeated shocks, it still shows the trend of insufficient aftereffect from time to time. Maintain the view that the future market of natural rubber fluctuates repeatedly, until a large number of new gum is listed on the market, which has a great impact on the price, but the high range will not be very large in the short term.
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