1、 Trend analysis

According to nickel price monitoring of business association, nickel price continued to drop slightly on the 13th, with spot nickel price of 122416.67 yuan / ton, down 1.29% from 124016.67 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, down 4.46% from the beginning of the year, and up 25.11% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Spot nickel has been down for two consecutive days this week, almost regaining all the gains since April. Nickel price has been hovering around 120000 yuan since the high nickel matte incident in early March. This time, the weak price decline is mainly affected by macro factors, the small rise of the US dollar and the national promotion of commodity price stability. In addition, the recovery of mineral supply after the rainy season in the Philippines is expected to depress nickel prices. The overall output in April was slightly lower than that in March, but the overall output was still high, and the overall demand was stable. It is expected that spot nickel will continue to fluctuate around 120000 yuan in the short term.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (April 12): 13300 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 13300 yuan / ton on the 12th, down 1.48% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of butadiene continues to weaken, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is a drag. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of April 12, the butadiene price was 6507 yuan / ton; on the other hand, the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing was not high recently, and some businesses shipped at low prices. According to the business news agency, the market quotation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is slightly lower than that of the previous period, with the mainstream newspaper of Qilu at 13000-13400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream newspaper of Qixiang, Jinzhou and Sichuan at 12700-13000 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: low price of raw materials, soft demand. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will call back narrowly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is mainly weak. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong market is about 490 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price is 467.5 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 4.59%, and 11.79% compared with the same period last year. On April 8, the commodity index of caustic soda was 67.27, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 67.48% compared with 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 3.32% compared with 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda fluctuates in a narrow range, and the market operation is dominant. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 390-490 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is tepid, the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda fluctuates mainly in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 460-590 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is general, and the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future.

The market performance of liquid chlorine in the upstream of caustic soda is fair this week, and generally speaking, it mainly operates in a narrow range in the later period. From the downstream of caustic soda to the end of demand, aluminum, paper and other industries adhere to the demand-based procurement, a strong wait-and-see attitude.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 13th week of 2021 (3.29-4.2), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodity falling, and 1 kind of commodity falling to 0. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (19.83%), light soda ash (0.92%) and PVC (0.14%); the main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 2.33%). The average rise and fall this week was 3.71%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the caustic soda enterprises are not warm in shipment, and the downstream receiving situation is weak and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the follow-up operation of caustic soda will mainly fluctuate slightly, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 8, the quotation of pet water bottle manufacturers was 7166.67 yuan / ton, the market focus of PET bottle chips was stable, the transaction atmosphere was general, pet cost support was insufficient, and the overall market was weak.

The price of PET raw materials is weak, the upstream support is insufficient, the downstream demand is flat, and the market transaction is flat. At present, the mainstream reference price in North China is 7100-7300 yuan / ton. The focus of negotiation is stable, mainly on the wait-and-see. The overall market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the purchasing enthusiasm is general.

The upstream ethylene glycol is weak, the price is low, the market trading atmosphere is flat, and the support for pet cost is weak. Ethylene glycol index: on April 7, the commodity index of ethylene glycol was 51.79, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.62% from the highest point of 104.87 in the cycle (2011-09-18), and up 54.46% from the lowest point of 33.53 on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Business community pet analysts believe that: the upstream raw material prices are low, the downstream demand side is insufficient, the overall market shipment is slow, the pet market maintains a weak operation in the short term, and the rising trend is not obvious. (to know more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods and grasp the price of commodities).

From the trend chart, we can see that the domestic direct price still rises slightly, most of the rare earth products have stable price trend, neodymium and terbium prices gradually fall, dysprosium system prices “a unique show”. As of April 7, the price of dysprosium oxide was 3.09 million yuan / ton; dysprosium iron alloy price was 3.05 million yuan / ton; dysprosium metal price was 3.95 million yuan / ton; domestic TB system price fell slightly; on the 7th day, the price of domestic terbium oxide was 9.55 million yuan / T, and the price of terbium metal was 12.25 million yuan / ton.

The main reason for the price rising in the domestic heavy rare earth market is the sharp contradiction between supply and demand.

Supply: Myanmar is not optimistic, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the import source has decreased greatly, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the over heavy rare earth market is sharp, which leads to the price of heavy rare earth continuously rising. In addition, the production of heavy rare earth in China is normal, and the large gap in the demand for heavy rare earth in China is powerless. The domestic rare earth storage plan is a great benefit to support the price of heavy rare earth in China. In february2021, the State Council’s opinions on supporting the revitalization and development of the old revolutionary areas in the new era put forward to promote the construction of “China’s rare earth Valley” and study the policies of the collection and storage of heavy rare earth and tungsten resources in China, The annual production of heavy rare earth in the plan of storage is relatively large, which is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium heavy rare earth.

Demand: downstream demand is still large, and permanent magnet demand remains high in the near future. New energy vehicles have been on fire from 2020 to 2021. According to the insiders on the site, the rare earth gap may continue for the whole year 2021. The main rare earth materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide. They are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy saving, frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional automobiles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to refresh the record of single month sales. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, 11 key enterprises completed 1.267 million vehicles in the first and middle of March, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year. Among them, the production of passenger vehicles has completed 1.013 million, an increase of 1.3 times over the same period of the same period; the production of commercial vehicles has completed 254000, which has doubled year-on-year. Downstream demand rose, and it is said that the demand gap has been increasing. Due to the weak market procurement of terbium, the market price of terbium system has declined slightly.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price index of domestic rare earth market has slightly fallen. According to the index of rare earth plate of business agency, the rare earth index on April 6 was 566, down 1 point from yesterday, down 43.40% from the highest point 1000 in the cycle (2011-12-06), up 108.86% from the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present).

The domestic rare earth index began to fall slightly in April, but the decline was not large, and the market price of domestic light rare earth has declined slightly in recent years. With the increase of domestic new energy vehicle sales, wind power, electronic products and other terminal industries have developed rapidly. With the slowing of the epidemic situation, the downstream manufacturers’ capacity utilization rate continues, demand for purchasing is the main, the demand for Nd-Fe-B is still high, the high prosperity of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics industry also contributes to the rise of rare earth prices. The data show that the demand for high-performance Nd-Fe-B in the world is mainly concentrated in the automotive field (traditional vehicles are close to 40%, and the proportion of new energy vehicles is over 12%), and the rest of them are in the range of 8% to 10% in other areas, such as wind power, consumer electronics, frequency conversion air conditioning and energy saving appliances. Downstream demand remained high, but the early stage manufacturers were positive in stock preparation and increased inventory in the site, which led to the negative downstream procurement and low market price of light rare earth.

The total control indexes of the first batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation increased significantly in 2021, which is related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total control index of rare earth mining in 2021, and the total control index of the first batch of rare earth ores (REO, the same below) in 2021 was 84000 tons, among which the index of ion type (mainly medium heavy rare earth) rare earth ore was 11490 tons, and the rock and mineral resources were mainly composed of the rare earth minerals The index of type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxyte content 65%, the same below) has a total control index of 63000 tons, including 46890 tons of main production index and 16110 tons of comprehensive utilization index. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mines will be controlled continuously. The national policy is favorable and the market price of rare earth will continue to rise.

With the continuous release of new energy vehicles, wind power and frequency conversion air conditioning downstream of rare earth, the demand is expected to increase further. The global supply gap of rare earth is expected to continue to expand, the domestic demand for rare earth remains high, and the domestic supply of rare earth is normal. However, the market transaction is not good in the near future and the purchase is not positive. Chenling, an analyst at business society, expects the price of rare earth market to be light and thin in the short term in the later period The price of soil market will be slightly lower, and dysprosium market price will maintain a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of toluene news agency, the bulk price fluctuated slightly this week. On March 28, the price of toluene was 5487.5 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 4), the price was 5461 yuan / ton, down 26.5 yuan / ton or 0.98% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 200 / + 100 (yuan / ton). East China port inventory fell. At present, the downstream demand is stable, and the trend of toluene is obviously affected by the crude oil on the cost side. Recently, the crude oil has fluctuated greatly, and toluene lacks clear upward momentum. In terms of external market, as of April 1, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $678 / T, down US $2 / T or 0.29% from March 26. The price of imported toluene in East China was US $703 / T, down US $7 / T or 0.99% on March 26.

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production from May, and Saudi Arabia will gradually reduce the number of additional voluntary production cuts. On March 26, Brent fell $1.61 per barrel, or 2.52%; WTI rose $0.52 per barrel, or 0.85%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week, with domestic goods at 16750 yuan / ton, down 2.9% from last week and up 68.62% from the same period last year. The domestic market is deadlocked, the trading atmosphere is light, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is not high, the terminal’s overall willingness to receive goods is weak, the demand is insufficient, and just needs to purchase.

In terms of PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week fell compared with last week, at 6400 yuan / ton, down 4.48% compared with last week, up 36.17% compared with the beginning of the year, and up 48.84% year on year. The production capacity of domestic p-xylene plants is mainly concentrated in East China. Sinopec and private enterprises have started their plants normally, with an on-site operation rate of more than 90%. The on-site supply is normal, and the goods are in good condition. As of April 1, closing prices in Asia were 784-786 USD / T FOB Korea and 802-804 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

At present, the price of toluene mainly fluctuates with the trend of crude oil, focusing on the latest progress of European epidemic and vaccination, the impact of US dollar exchange rate and US debt on the price of crude oil. Pay attention to the impact of the spring maintenance of toluene plant, toluene arrival and downstream demand change on toluene price.

International oil prices fall more than rise less, bad market mentality, coupled with the general sales of gasoline market itself, the demand for raw material MTBE is flat. According to the data of business news agency, as of April 1, the price of MTBE was 5693 yuan / ton, which was still up 8.03% month on month and 86.67% year on year.

Gasoline itself is generally sold, and the demand for raw material MTBE is limited; the prices of other gasoline raw materials such as mixed aromatics and alkylation are lower than MTBE, which is bad for MTBE market. Recently, the prices of mixed aromatics and alkylation are about 250-300 lower than those of MTBE, which puts some pressure on the MTBE market. All parties are bullish. This week, the MTBE market continues to decline slightly. In Shandong Province, due to the start of some factories this week and the influence of some low-cost goods in Northeast China, the sales of merchants are not smooth, and the price is slightly profitable, with a drop of 100 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, as of April 1, the FOB Gulf price of the United States closed at 214.50-214.60 cents / gallon (761.48-761.83 US dollars / ton), FOB ara of Europe closed at 688-688.5 US dollars / ton, and FOB Singapore of Asia closed at 711-713 US dollars / ton.

Restrained by the decline of crude oil and weak demand, the MTBE market continued to decline and adjust this week. The replenishment of merchants before the festival is limited, and it is expected to usher in a short replenishment period after the festival. Business community MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market will be low and volatile.

According to the data of the commodity list of the business society, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong has risen sharply recently. On March 1, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1247.67 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1466.67 yuan / ton, up 17.65%. The current price has increased by 20.55% month on month, and the current price has increased by 69.23% year on year.

Recently, the domestic formaldehyde market price has risen. As of March 31, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Central China has increased by 23 yuan / ton to 1323 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory quotation in North China has increased by 1275 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory quotation in East China has increased by 45 yuan / ton to 1374 yuan / ton. Shandong Linyi Galaxy formaldehyde production capacity of 120000 tons / year formaldehyde plant has been restarted. Recently, the trading atmosphere of formaldehyde market is active, with an increase of nearly 20% in March. The supply of market goods is short of demand, and the transaction is in good condition. The formaldehyde market has gone up sharply.

Upstream methanol situation: the negotiated price of methanol market in southern Shandong increased by 20-50 yuan / ton to 2260 yuan / ton, and the nearby factory raised cash. Linyi receives the local goods to negotiate the price to 2250-2260 yuan / ton and deliver them to spot exchange. The logistics goods offer 2230-2240 yuan / ton and deliver them to spot exchange. Shandong methanol Lubei market reference price 2250 yuan / ton to spot. Methanol overall trading atmosphere is good, the market continues to rise, forming a strong support for formaldehyde market.

Affected by the blockage of the Suez Canal, the recent rise in international crude oil prices has led to the rising cost of chemical raw materials, and the price rise of bulk commodities is gratifying. In this context, the rising wood prices have promoted the strong atmosphere of formaldehyde downstream plate factories and adhesive factories. The industry has a positive purchasing attitude. The supply of formaldehyde is in short supply, and the formaldehyde market has risen sharply.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol showed an upward trend, and the demand of the downstream plate factories was acceptable. Although the atmosphere of grabbing goods dropped slightly, the overall trading remained good. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong would mainly rise in the near future.

Different from the “leading” domestic BDO market in February, the domestic BDO market in March “turned upside down” and stepped down, but the range was not large. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 31750 yuan / ton on March 1, and 30700 yuan / ton on March 31. The price dropped by 3.31% in the month, and the price rose by 225.21% year on year. In March, the bearish sentiment of domestic BDO market continued to intensify, and the price fell from a high level. However, due to some support from the supply side, the decline was limited.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in March 2021, there were 56 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 33 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 35.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were chloroform (23.76%), organosilicon DMC (23.52%) and aniline (21.56%). There were 33 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 20 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products with a decrease were phthalic anhydride (- 23.34%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 23.13%) and isooctanol (- 22.15%). The average rise and fall this month was 2.07%.

At the beginning of this month, the domestic BDO market remained at a high level, but the lower reaches resisted high prices and the trading atmosphere was not good. Some enterprises open their bidding prices, but most of them are sold out, which has a negative impact on the market. Traders are also more bearish aftermarket, spot trading light, the focus of real single negotiations gradually declined. Some enterprises lack confidence, offer loose, narrow profit negotiation, although the listing price is still high, the actual transaction price is relatively low.

In terms of units, Sichuan Tianhua, Chongqing Jianfeng and great wall energy are operating at full load; Panjin Dalian is affected by the shortage of raw materials, and the load is 60-70%; Yanchang oil is unstable in operation within a month, and the overall load is maintained at about 30-40%; Dongyuan will stop to replace the catalyst from March 15 to 21; Shaanxi Shanhua small line will replace the catalyst within a month; Xinjiang Xinye will replace the catalyst from March 21 to 25; and Lanshan Tunhe two sets of units will start operation from March 15 to 21 The catalyst will be replaced in turn on May 21, and it is expected to last for two weeks.

On the downstream side, the PTMEG market in spandex field is strong and upward, while the PTMEG market in non spandex field is rising sharply; the focus of domestic THF market is weakening; the purchasing mood of PBT market is depressed; and the GBL market is relatively strong.

Next month, the supply side will continue to weaken with the restart of unit volume and the increase of negative production of some units. At present, most manufacturers and traders are bearish on the future market. BDO analysts of business club expect that the domestic BDO market will slow down in April.

According to the data from the business news agency, the price of thermal coal soared from 631 yuan / ton on December 1, 2020 to 1037.5 yuan / ton on January 18, 2021, with an increase rate of 64.42%. After that, the price of thermal coal went down to 573 yuan / ton on March 1, 2021, with a decrease rate of 44.77%. There is a large range of rise and fall. Since the beginning of March, the price of steam coal has warmed up and started to rise. At the beginning of March, the average market price was about 573 yuan / ton. At the end of March, the average market price was 750.75 yuan / ton, up 31.02%.

Since the end of November 2020, the steam coal market can be described as “rapidly changing”. As can be seen from the figure below, the overall price of steam coal in the first quarter of 2021 is higher than that in 2019 and 2021, and is far higher than that in the same period of 2019, only at the end of February and the beginning of March.

The time is back to the winter of 2020, the supply guarantee policy is promoted, and the signal of safety production is enhanced at the end of the year. Although the output of Inner Mongolia has further rebounded, the supply of producing areas is still relatively tight. In terms of downstream power plants: in the case of lower temperature and rising daily consumption, the demand for downstream terminal transportation is also strong. The power plant is actively replenishing the stock, the inventory in Beigang is low, and the shortage of goods still exists. Due to the shortage of goods, there are often ships and other coal phenomenon. In the middle of the month, the news of import easing came true, but it took time for import increment to supplement, and the price of steam coal remained relatively strong. In the middle of January 2021, the price of producing areas has increased. Due to the severe epidemic situation in the main producing areas, some coal mines have stopped production. Overall supply is still relatively tight. Downstream power plants: due to the rising temperature, the daily consumption of power plants decreased and the inventory of power plants increased. Moreover, the power plant held a wait-and-see attitude towards the steam coal in February, and some traders lowered their prices to actively ship. The buyer and the seller start the demand game, and the main reason is that the Spring Festival is approaching, and the daily consumption of the power plant in February is uncertain.

During the Spring Festival, the national temperature rose significantly, there was little cold air, and the demand for heating power was weak. The daily consumption of the power plant has fallen back to the normal level in previous years, and the number of days available for coal storage has increased, so it is difficult for the short-term power plant to increase. The pace of replenishment has slowed down, and the number of days available for power plant inventory in coastal areas has risen to around 20 days. Most of the factories are on holiday, and the demand for electricity has dropped significantly, and the demand for industrial electricity has no obvious support. Steam coal prices continued to decline.

In March, the price of steam coal began to rebound. First, the inventory of producing areas decreased, the mining areas in Shaanxi maintained a low inventory state, and the number of coal mines shut down for maintenance due to coal management ticket increased in Inner Mongolia, resulting in a decrease in supply. At the end of the month, the number of coal mines shut down for maintenance increased, and the overall mine inventory was small. Second, in recent years, the daily consumption of power plants in coastal areas has picked up, and the inventory has maintained a slow decline. In addition, the date of spring centralized maintenance of Datong Qinhuangdao line is initially scheduled to be April 6-30, 3-5 hours a day for “open skylight” maintenance. According to the traffic volume during maintenance in previous years, the traffic volume of Datong Qinhuangdao line will further drop to about 1 million tons.

Analysts from the business news agency believe that: after the festival, industrial enterprises will resume production in an all-round way, and the demand from the chemical, cement, glass and other building materials industries will start in an all-round way. In addition, the industrial power consumption will increase, and the daily consumption of power coal will also increase. At present, the daily consumption of power plants will increase, which will drive the demand of power plants for steam coal. And the origin of good sales, steam coal prices or good support, prices. On the whole, the price of steam coal may maintain a slight upward trend, and the demand of downstream market will be taken into consideration.