1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of soda ash is relatively strong this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was about 1902 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average market price was 1922 yuan / ton, up 1.05%, 50.94% over the same period last year. On July 18, the commodity index of light soda ash was 98.56, flat with yesterday, down 16.38% from the highest point of 117.86 (2017-11-21) in the cycle, and up 56.07% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the current mainstream market price of light soda in East China is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is relatively strong, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1800-1900 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly high. Some data show that the overall operation rate of soda ash decreased within the week, with the operation rate of 68.19% and a month on month decrease of 7%.

Demand side: glass prices rose this week. The average price of glass last Friday was 35.59 yuan / square meter, and this Friday was 36.71 yuan / square meter. The price rose by 3.15% in the week. In terms of different regions, in Shahe of North China, the recent situation of enterprises leaving the warehouse is better, the inventory of manufacturers is low, and the spot market price is rising. East China glass market confidence is good, manufacturers low inventory, enterprise quotation up. The overall trend of the market in South China is fair, with moderate downstream procurement, good demand, and the focus of transaction moving up. In Central China, the downstream just needs replenishment, the spot delivery situation is good, the trading atmosphere is good, and the glass market price rises. Recently, the glass market in Northeast China is more active and has a good trend. Local digestion is the main factor. The output of production enterprises has declined, and the price of glass market has risen. The overall market price of glass in Southwest China tends to be stable, and the production and sales are basically flat. Northwest glass market trading is fair, prices rose slightly..

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 28th week of 2021 (7.12-7.16), there are 4 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 1 kind of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were: caustic soda (5.86%), calcium carbide (5.67%), light soda (1.05%); The average rise and fall this week was 2.63%.

Business analysts believe that: the domestic soda price is stable, the market trading atmosphere is relatively stable, and manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. The price of downstream glass is strong, but the high price of soda is still in a wait-and-see state. In general, the later period of soda ash market operation is mainly strong, and the specific needs of the downstream market.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of isooctanol in Shandong increased from 15833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 16133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.89%, 128.84% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of ISO octanol rose slightly this week, with the commodity index of ISO octanol at 126.72 on July 16.

Downstream demand rose, ISO octanol rose again

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong’s mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers rose this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of ISO octanol this weekend was 16100 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Lihuayi’s offer of ISO octanol this weekend is 16100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 16200 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of ISO octanol fell slightly this week, with the quoted price falling from 7804.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7645.82 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.03%, and a year-on-year increase of 13.41%. The upstream raw material market prices fell slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Isooctanol downstream market, DOP factory price rose slightly this week. DOP quotation increased by 2.86% from 13537.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13925.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 97.99% over the same period of last year. The downstream DOP price rose slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement increased, and the demand for isooctanol strengthened.

Stronger demand, bullish outlook

In late July, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong may rise slightly. On the whole, the ISO octanol plants have been started in recent years, and the overall operation rate of the ISO octanol industry has increased. However, the spot supply of ISO octanol is still insufficient, the downstream market is better, and the demand is increasing. As a result, isooctanol analysts from the business community believe that the domestic market of isooctanol may rise slightly in late July.

According to the business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9133 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 9066 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price drop of 0.73%.

At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton; The market atmosphere of activated carbon is cold and the delivery is normal, and the transaction price is mainly discussed (the specifications and properties of activated carbon are complicated, and the price can not be generalized, please consult the manufacturer for details).

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: in the short term, the price of activated carbon will continue to be weak, the atmosphere of wait-and-see in the downstream will be obvious, and the overall market transaction will be weak.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 3480 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 48.72%. On July 16, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 179.47, which was flat compared with yesterday and set a new record in the cycle. It was 131.96% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now).

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price remained at a high level. The start-up of domestic ammonium nitrate plants was general, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the plant was normal. Some manufacturers reported that the price of upstream coal raw materials was at a high level, the cost increased significantly, and the manufacturer’s price reached a historical high level. Recently, the supply of goods in the plant was tight, and the transportation was normal, so the market price of ammonium nitrate remained at a high level. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the prices of some manufacturers are at a historical high. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 3500-3600 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 4300-4400 yuan / ton.

The domestic price of concentrated nitric acid rose this week, with the weekend price of 2450 yuan / ton, 2.08% higher than the price of 2400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Anhui Jinhe quoted 2650 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2500 yuan / ton. The price of Xinghua is 2350 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, the delivery of goods in the yard is general, the price trend of nitric acid in the yard is rising, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate in the market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, with the weekend price of 4516.67 yuan / ton, up 1.5% from 4450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant in the yard was normal, the spot supply in the yard was normal, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market rose. In terms of fundamentals, the price of liquid ammonia rose in Shandong. Due to the decline of inventory pressure, the operating rate of manufacturers remained at a reasonable level, and there was a certain price difference with other regions in China, the price of liquid ammonia decreased slightly. The amount of ammonia in Shandong Province is basically in the balance between supply and demand, which still supports the price. In the lower reaches, the agricultural fertilizer use has increased, the demand in the lower reaches is general, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate remains high.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is normal. In addition, the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal. The demand for calcium ammonium nitrate has increased. In addition, the price trend of raw material market continues to rise, and the price of coal market remains high. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is general, and the rising cost has a certain positive impact, Business community ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the late market price of ammonium nitrate or will maintain a high level.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 13, China imported 28.392 million tons of coal in June 2021, an increase of 3.106 million tons or 12.28% compared with 25.286 million tons in the same period last year. Compared with 21.04 million tons in May, it increased by 7.352 million tons or 34.94%. In June, coal imports amounted to US $2612.1 million, up 54.64% year on year and 44.31% month on month. According to this calculation, the import unit price is 92 US dollars / ton, up 25.2 US dollars / ton year-on-year and 5.97 US dollars / ton month on month.

From January to June 2021, China imported 139.561 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%, 5.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous may; The total import value was US $11.066 billion, down 10.7% year on year.

O-benzene market strong and stable

According to the data monitoring of business association, the settlement price of o-benzene in July was 6200 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with that in June. As of July 13, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 6200.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene of 6200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. However, the upstream and downstream market of the industrial chain rose, and the market of o-benzene recovered.

Raw material prices rebound

According to the data detection of business news agency, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and rose in July, the price of raw materials in the upstream of o-benzene rose, the market of the upstream industry chain of o-benzene recovered, and the rising power of o-benzene market increased.

Lower market rebounds

According to the data test of business association, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded in July, and the market of phthalic anhydride recovered and rose. The downstream market of o-benzene rebounded, the demand for o-benzene rose, the demand for o-benzene was strong, and the driving force for o-benzene to rise increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business news agency, believes that the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride in the upstream and downstream of the o-xylene industry chain rose in July, the o-xylene industry chain rose, and the o-xylene market recovered in July. In the future, the rising power of o-benzene increased. However, due to the limited increase of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride, the rising power of o-benzene is limited, and the rising space of o-benzene is limited. Generally speaking, the market of o-benzene will pick up in the future, and the price of o-benzene will be strong and stable.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (July 12): 2720.00 yuan / ton

On July 12, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with the quotation on July 9, with a decrease of 1.12%, and a year-on-year increase of 64.85%. The price of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the agricultural demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the urea plant maintenance is still the same, the start-up recovery is slow, the daily output is still less than 160000 tons, the supply side is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International: it is said that India will issue a new round of import bidding this month, which will boost the domestic market mentality. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is tight.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2750 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of caustic soda went up. The average price of Shandong market was 527.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 532.5 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price increased by 0.95% and 3.9% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on July 8 was 76.62, up 0.72 points from yesterday, down 62.96% from 206.87 points (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 17.68% from 65.11 points, the lowest point on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of caustic soda was adjusted. The price of caustic soda in Shandong has been stable for the time being, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 520-620 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is slightly better than before. Now the caustic soda manufacturers adjust their prices according to their own conditions. It is comprehensively estimated that the caustic soda will be mainly operated in a narrow range in the future. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda mainly fluctuates in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 530-650 yuan / ton, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to be consolidated in the future.

Downstream: due to the demand of downstream alumina for caustic soda inventory, caustic soda manufacturers are mainly active in shipping, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable. There is a good demand for caustic soda. At the present stage, the price of caustic soda is running with consolidation.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 26th week of 2021 (6.28-7.2), there were 2 kinds of commodities that rose, 1 kind of commodities that fell, and 2 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities rising were: Light Soda (1.95%), PVC (0.70%); The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 0.36%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.46%.

Business community analysts believe that in the near future, Shandong has been mainly operating in a narrow range, and the demand for downstream alumina is acceptable. Manufacturers in other regions adjust their quotations according to their own conditions. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to be consolidated and operated in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data of the commodity list of the business society, the market of formaldehyde in Shandong has recently fallen. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1367.50 yuan / ton on the 6th, and 1357.50 yuan / ton on the 7th, down 0.73%. The current price is up 4.42% month on month, and the current price is up 57.24% year on year.

Recently, the domestic market price of formaldehyde has fallen. As of July 7, the mainstream market price in eastern Shandong is 1330-1400 yuan / ton. Recently, the formaldehyde Market Trading atmosphere is general, the transaction situation is not satisfactory, formaldehyde market showed a downward trend.

Upstream methanol situation: in the methanol market of southern Shandong, part of the price was negotiated to 2490-2500 yuan / ton in cash. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2450-2490 yuan / ton and sent them to cash exchange. The logistics goods offer price is not available for the time being. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals, and the operators wait and see. The main turnover of methanol market in central Shandong is 2320-2340 yuan / ton, which is delivered to cash. The turnover is light and the negotiation is limited. The transaction price of methanol market in North Central Shandong Province is 2300-2320 yuan / ton, which is sent to spot exchange, and some of them are in wait-and-see mood. Methanol market shock consolidation, the overall trading atmosphere is light. Poor support for formaldehyde.

At present, due to the influence of environmental protection control, the plate factories in Shandong Province have a general starting situation, poor demand and limited purchasing capacity. At present, the atmosphere of Shandong formaldehyde trading market is relatively cold, the transaction is not good, the formaldehyde manufacturers are difficult to ship, and the focus of formaldehyde market is constantly moving down.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol market is weak, and the downstream plate factory starts to tighten, so the demand is not good. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of business society expect that the formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall in the near future.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of June 30, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2766.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that on June 1, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.26% in the three-month cycle. In July, the formic acid market rose. As of July 6, the average price quoted by enterprises was 3000 yuan / ton, up 1.12% compared with the previous trading day.

In June, the domestic formic acid market remained stable as a whole. In the first half of June, the price quoted by the shippers was stable at a high level, and the downstream just needed to buy, so the market trading atmosphere was acceptable. In late June, the trend of raw materials was strong, the shipment of enterprises was stable, and the market transaction was orderly. Under the stable quotation of main factories, the domestic formic acid market continued to be stable in the whole month. In July, the market performance was fair, and the market rose slightly.

As of July 5, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 527.50, up 1.93% compared with July 1 (517.50); On July 5, the domestic liquid ammonia market was stable, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong did not change much. Today, the amount of ammonia in this area is moderate, and the enterprises are shipping normally. At present, the inventory is normal, and the quotations of Shandong large factories are generally stable; The upstream sulfuric acid market rose on July 5 in Shandong Province, and the upstream sulfur market rose slightly in the near future. Some sulfuric acid manufacturers were under started, and the load was reduced. The downstream bromine market gradually rose, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was good; The reference price of upstream methanol was 2555.00 on July 5, which was the same as that on July 1.

Business community formic acid analysts believe that at present, the raw material price is relatively strong, the cost support is strong, and the market transaction is active. It is expected that the formic acid market will be mainly strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price.