The data monitoring shows that on October 19, the market was boosted by the flood news in Thailand, and the natural rubber market was crazy upward. Among them, Shanghai Rubber rose by about 650-700 yuan / ton, and the spot rubber was adjusted according to the market. The rising range of Qingdao and Shanghai markets was generally about 500-700 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of domestic standard 1 in the current period was about 14300-14500 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Yunxiang / Jinfeng whole milk in 19 years was about 14550-14600 yuan / ton, In 20 years, the price of 3L glue in Vietnam was 13500-13700 yuan / ton, and the price of new glue for No. 3 cigarette in Thailand was about 17800 yuan / ton.

Analysis: from a macro perspective, the trend of crude oil is still strong, and the market of bulk raw materials is still strong; The production of synthetic rubber has a great impact on the price of natural rubber. From the perspective of industry, on the supply side, the abnormal weather this year has a great impact on rubber production. On the 19th, I heard that Thailand was suffering from flood and waterlogging. On this basis, the market operated wildly and the price rose sharply; At the import and export end, the sea freight rate has decreased, which has moderately reduced the pressure on rubber transportation. However, the changeable weather also has a great impact on transportation, which may have a certain impact on the centralized arrival of orders in August. At present, the import volume has not increased significantly; On the production side, due to the significant increase in policy requirements and cost pressure, the start-up of tire enterprises has been greatly affected. Some small and medium-sized tires have been shut down. Large tire enterprises are facing various pressures of cost and inventory pressure, and the start-up rate is low; At the downstream demand side, due to the lack of chips and power, the recently released global automobile sales data and passenger car sales data showed a decline.

Forecast: it is expected that under the influence of the flood news in Thailand in the short term, the trend of natural rubber is still strong, but today, Shanghai Rubber closed, and the increase has decreased. It is necessary to beware of the possibility of insufficient capital trend and rising power; In the medium and long term, it is necessary to comprehensively analyze the above factors. Without a significant increase in the supply side, the macro and downstream demand will be supported, and the rubber price will maintain a strong trend; If a large number of imported rubber arrive in Hong Kong, the demand continues to shrink and the macro surface weakens, the rubber price will inevitably be weak.