1、 Price data

As of November 21, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7800.75 yuan / ton, up 4.70% from 7450.75 yuan / ton on November 15. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7700-8000 yuan / ton.

As of November 21, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7617.50 yuan / ton, up 4.86% from 7262.50 yuan / ton on November 15. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7500-7800 yuan / ton.

On November 21, the naphtha commodity index was 96.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.83% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 127.94% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of local refining and hydrogenation naphtha rose sharply, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the terminal was released, the refineries pushed up actively, and the market trading was positive.

Upstream: the international oil price has fallen one after another. According to the monitoring of business news agency, WTI crude oil fell by 6.97% and Brent crude oil fell by 4.80%. Although the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data was positive last week, the main concern was the epidemic in Europe and the United States wanted to release strategic crude oil reserves with major economies. The short market atmosphere still put pressure on oil prices.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene fell continuously this week, and the price weakened broadly. The price was 6500 yuan / ton on November 12 and 6210.2 yuan / ton on November 19, down 4.46% from last week. Mixed xylene fell continuously this week, and the price fell broadly. The price of mixed xylene was 6220 yuan / ton on November 12 and 6040 yuan / ton on November 19, down 2.89% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 19th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 5 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the energy sector in the 46th week of 2021 (11.15-11.19), and the top 3 commodities are naphtha (4.70%), diesel (3.82%) and gasoline (2.73%). A total of 10 commodities decreased month on month, and 5 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coking coal (- 12.35%), petroleum coke (- 10.90%) and asphalt (- 10.26%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.94%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the market price of refined oil in Shandong continues to rise this week, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the terminal part is released, and refineries push up positively, but the sharp decline of international crude oil may inhibit the push up situation. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to fall this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 3516.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3450 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.90% during the week.

In November, affected by the continuous decline of upstream raw material prices, domestic sodium pyrosulfite manufacturers successively reduced the ex factory prices, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market prices to continue to fall. This week, the domestic industrial sodium pyrosulfite market price range was 2900-3800 yuan / ton, and most prices were concentrated near 3000-3400 yuan / ton. The production of the enterprise is stable, and the inventory is maintained at about 30%. The enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. The market transaction atmosphere is general, mainly fast in and fast out, which mainly needs support. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact each manufacturer for details).

Since the beginning of November, the price of domestic soda ash has fallen by 2.4%, and the price of sulfur has fallen by 0.94%. The price of upstream raw materials has continued to fall. Under the pressure of cost, the overall market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future will be under pressure.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the price of upstream raw materials has fallen, the wait-and-see attitude of downstream trade subjects has increased, and the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will continue to be under pressure and weak adjustment in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week, with a slight increase. On November 18, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 189600 yuan / ton, which was 1.5% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 186800 yuan / ton on November 14). On November 18, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 199000 yuan / ton, which was 2.05% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 195000 yuan / ton on November 14). As of November 18, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is around 183000 ~ 193000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is around 193000 ~ 205000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise slightly this week, and the price remained high. As the downstream is still in the state of demand, it passively accepts higher prices. At present, the demand for lithium iron phosphate raw materials is still high, and the market inquiry is frequent. In the case of production reduction in Qinghai in winter and the shortage of mineral resources in Jiangxi, there will be a gap at the supply end. At present, most enterprises still focus on maintaining stability, and relatively few enterprises raise prices.

The price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide in the downstream remains stable. At present, the price of raw spodumene is strong, the cost support is strong, the demand side is improved, and the market is relatively stable. However, with the obvious increase of overseas market, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may show a tightening state.

In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the price runs smoothly and the manufacturers ship actively. At present, the supply side is normal, the negotiation focus is stable, the downstream just needs procurement, the procurement atmosphere is general, the upstream market focus is high, the price rises, the lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is large, stable and small.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, the current lithium carbonate market inventory is low, so the pressure on supply and demand is increased. In addition, the subsequent output may be reduced. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price still has room for upward consolidation.

According to the monitoring data of business society, since November, the price of hydrogen peroxide has continued to decline weakly. In the middle of the year, the price has rebounded, which has been suppressed by bad news. After the rebound, it continues to decline weakly. As of November 17, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 946 yuan / ton, down 14.46% from the beginning of the month.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide of business society from August 23, 2021 to November 14, 2021, it can be seen that hydrogen peroxide runs smoothly as a whole at the end of August. Since September, the hydrogen peroxide market has warmed up and opened the road of rise, with an increase of 3.94% in the current month. After 11, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a sharp rise, rising continuously until October 19. Long and short game, the hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply and fell sharply after that. Throughout October, hydrogen peroxide rose 39.01%. At the beginning of November, hydrogen peroxide still maintained a downward trend, and the price fell for two weeks. This week, hydrogen peroxide was still weak.

Bad pressure hydrogen peroxide fell endlessly

Since November, hydrogen peroxide continued the weak decline at the end of October. Mainly due to the impact of the limited power policy, the printing operation rate of the terminal paper industry decreased. In addition, after the e-commerce promotion activities, the corrugated paper inventory of the paper mill began to increase and the shipment speed slowed down, resulting in a decrease in the corrugated paper price. With the elimination of the overall price panic of the carton factory, the price of paperboard procurement has been compared steadily, and the willingness to replenish is not strong temporarily, which also affects the downward trend of corrugated paper price. The demand for hydrogen peroxide decreased, the market transaction became weaker, the manufacturers’ willingness to support the price was general, and the price continued to decline weakly. As of November 17, the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide had fallen to 946 yuan / ton, a decrease of nearly%.

On November 17, the price of hydrogen peroxide in some regions was as follows:

The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Luxi Chemical is 840 yuan / ton, which is 80 yuan / ton lower than that in early November; The quotation of Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide is 950 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in early November; The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Anhui Quansheng chemical is 1050 yuan / ton, which is 400 yuan / ton lower than that in early November.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business society, believes that the terminal paper industry, printing and other industries have entered the off-season of consumption, with poor demand and negative pressure, and the hydrogen peroxide price will still be dominated by weak consolidation in the future.

Last week, the domestic propylene glycol market began to decline weakly. This week, on the first two days of the week, the domestic propylene glycol market continued to fall sharply, and the center of gravity continued to fall. The propylene glycol market had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, the downstream operating rate was low, the demand side performance was weak, and the overall trading atmosphere in the field was general. In addition, in terms of raw materials, the inventory of raw propylene oxide market was under pressure, and the center of gravity was weak, giving loose support to the cost side of propylene glycol, 15. On the 16th, the domestic propylene glycol market price decreased by 500-1500 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 16th, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 18200-18800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.46% compared with last weekend.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, recently, the domestic propylene oxide market was weak and downward. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of propylene oxide was 15800 yuan / ton on November 16, down 8.6% compared with November 1 (17300 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream market of propylene glycol. In addition, the recent increase in propylene glycol supply has revealed the contradiction between supply and demand. The propylene glycol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is weak, and it does not rule out that there are still downside risks in the market. More attention needs to be paid to the specific changes at the supply and demand side.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fell slightly today (November 15). The average price in the spot market was 4903 yuan / ton, down 1.51% from the previous day and up 51.85% year-on-year. PTA futures 2201 closed at 4946 and settled at 4966, down 56, or 1.12%.

In terms of devices, recently, the restart and maintenance of domestic PTA plants coexist, and the current operating rate of the industry remains around 79%. Specifically, the 1 million ton PTA unit of chuanneng chemical stopped on October 31, and the restart date is to be determined. Hengli Dalian 2.2 million ton plant was overhauled on November 5 for about 20 days. The 1.5 million ton unit of Honggang Petrochemical is planned to be restarted in mid November.

The market is worried that the Fed will accelerate the pace of raising interest rates to curb inflation. On November 12, the international oil price fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $80.79/barrel, down US $0.8 or 1.0%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $82.17/barrel, down US $0.7 or 0.8%.

Affected by the bad raw materials, the downstream polyester market price maintained a decline. Today, the polyester price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was reduced by 300-500 yuan / ton. The starting load of polyester is not high and remains around 81%. Affected by seasonal factors, the textile market has gradually weakened, and generally pessimistic expectations for order volume. In the domestic market, in the absence of orders, the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is about 66%, and the factory has plans to shut down and reduce production.

Business analysts believe that the decline of crude oil has weakened the support for PTA cost, and the demand side performance is general. There is an accumulation expectation of supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will still maintain a weak trend of shock.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices continued to decline this week. The average price of domestic isopropanol was 7966.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 7733.33 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 2.93% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from August to October

Isopropanol prices continued to fall this week. The price of raw material acetone continues to decline, suppressing the market mentality. Traders are more cautious in taking goods. Most of the downstream are wait-and-see. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is light, and the isopropanol market quotation fell. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 7400-7500 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 7700 yuan / ton; Most quotations of isopropanol in Zhejiang are about 7600 yuan / ton. Internationally, on November 10, the isopropanol market in the United States closed stable and the isopropanol market in Europe closed stable.

In terms of raw acetone, the domestic acetone market price has been reduced. Up to now, the offer range in East China is 5700 yuan / ton, and there may still be room for negotiation. The terminal demand is poor, the participation of intermediate traders is low, the interest of shippers is increased, the inventory of petrochemical plants has increased, and there is pressure on shipment. The business community expects that the acetone market will be dominated by weak adjustment in the short term.

In terms of raw propylene, the price of propylene continued to decline weakly this week. As of Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong market was 7800-7900 yuan / ton. Propylene’s performance remained stable in the first half of the week, and the price was temporarily stable under the support of raw material cost. On Wednesday, due to the sharp decline of international oil price, the price of propylene accelerated to fall. At the same time, the overall downstream demand was general, and the demand support was insufficient. Propylene is expected to continue to fluctuate and decline in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that the focus of the domestic isopropanol market is downward. The prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have been lowered one after another, and the cost support is insufficient. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is poor, the overall transaction is relatively cold, the confidence of the industry is insufficient, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is obvious, there are few inquiries, and the shipment is slow. It is expected that the price of isopropanol will continue to tilt downward in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fell in early November, and the spot prices of various brands continued to decline. As of November 11, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 16550 yuan / ton, up or down – 5.43% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: upstream styrene continues to decline. At present, the policies related to dual control and environmental protection remain unchanged, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough in demand. On the cost side, upstream commodities such as crude oil and ethylene weaken, and it is expected that the price of styrene will not rise in the short term.

The price of acrylonitrile operated weakly and stably this week, the upstream raw material market was general, the tight spot supply in the field eased, the social inventory began to rise, the mentality of merchants was loose, and the offer was weakly stable.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market stabilized after falling. In the early stage, the market supply was abundant, and the external market fell back with the domestic spot price. At the same time, the industrial load increased, and the export of goods affected the overall increment of supply. Recently, the demand for butadiene has warmed up, and the seller tries to increase.

The upstream market fluctuated, and the cost side support of ABS was general. In terms of operating rate, there was the resumption of parking and maintenance equipment this week, and the increase of output suppressed the spot price of ABS. Due to the downturn of downstream construction caused by the recent double limit and other environmental protection policies, the resistance of merchants to shipment has increased. The superimposed demand is gradually lower, and the on-site profit giving delivery operation is heard a lot.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continued to decline in early November, and the trend of the three upstream materials fluctuated, which generally contributed to ABS. The domestic spot price fell due to the gradual weakening of demand, and the atmosphere on the floor was buying up rather than buying down. It is expected that the ABS spot market may still fall slightly in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of November 10, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 17700 yuan / ton, down 5.52% compared with the price on November 1 and 3.63% compared with the price on October 10.

Recently (11.1-11.10), the acrylic acid market fell. At present, the price of raw propylene rises slightly, the cost support is limited, the downstream demand is light, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is general, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the supply is slightly sufficient, and the market price of acrylic acid is under pressure due to insufficient cost and demand support.

Upstream propylene, Shandong propylene market rose recently (11.05-11.10). According to the bulk list data of business society, as of November 10, the reference price of propylene was 7905.67, an increase of 2.44% compared with the price on November 5 and a decrease of 3.30% compared with November 1.

According to acrylic acid analysts of business society, at present, the price of raw propylene has increased slightly, the cost support is not strong, and the demand performance is not good. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

Product Name: propylene glycol

Latest price (November 9): 21266 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on November 9, the domestic propylene glycol market loosened and fell. The average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 21266 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the previous working day. Compared with the price on the 7th, the average price was reduced by 567 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.60%. On the 9th, the domestic propylene glycol market was weak, the consolidation operation, the market trading atmosphere was general, the downstream was cautious, and the overall transaction was limited.

Future forecast: at present, the propylene glycol supply side equipment is restored to operation after maintenance, the on-site supply is loose, and the demand performance is general. The propylene glycol analysts of business society believe that the domestic propylene glycol market is mostly stable and consolidated in the short term, focusing on real single transaction negotiation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.