1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, as of March 18, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17500 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week and the beginning of the month, up 9.83% compared with the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, as of March 18, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25500 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week, down 7.27% compared with the beginning of the month and up 26.87% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The refrigerant R22 market continued to advance steadily this week, and the price did not change significantly compared with the beginning of the month. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid was weak and stable, and the market of chloroform rose, which strengthened the support for refrigerant R22. At present, public health incidents have intensified, logistics is poor, some enterprises have suspended quotation, and there is great sales pressure, but the manufacturers support the price, and R22 price is firm. At present, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is mostly 10830 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 5250 yuan / ton, the market price of R22 is mostly in the range of 17000-18000 yuan / ton, the price in Shandong is about 17500 yuan / ton, the price in Zhejiang is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton, the price in Hunan is about 17500-18000 yuan / ton, and the price in Guangzhou is about 18000 yuan / ton.

The market of refrigerant R134a was temporarily stable this week, and the market focus shifted downward. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable, the price of trichloroethylene is stable at about 12000, and the cost support is OK, but the demand of the car market is still weak, the market supply exceeds demand, coupled with the intensification of local public health events, poor logistics, pressure on enterprise shipments, stable and declining prices, and the actual transaction is lower than the offer. By the end of the weekend, the market quotation of R134a was mostly in the range of 24500-26000 yuan / ton, about 2480-25500 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 24500-25000 yuan / ton in Hunan, about 26000-30000 yuan / ton in Jiangsu and about 27000 yuan / ton in Guangzhou.

In terms of raw materials, on March 21, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the supply of goods was normal, and the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid fell. The recent decline of fluorite price had a certain impact on the loss of support for the hydrofluoric acid market. In addition, the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was still at a low level, the actual demand was at a low level, the procurement of hydrofluoric acid was limited, and the refrigerant market was depressed recently, It is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may decline slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Business community refrigerant analysts believe that the current cost power is OK and the demand continues to be weak, but public health events affect the shipment of enterprises, and some manufacturers suspend the quotation. It is expected that the market of refrigerant R22 and R134a will be stable in the short term, and the price trend of raw materials needs to be paid attention to.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride declined this week. As of the weekend, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8925 yuan / ton, down 2.46% from the price of 9150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 34.72% year-on-year. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined recently.

This week, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride fell, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field was general, the downstream DOP market price fell sharply, the price trend of orthobenzene was temporarily stable, the plasticizer market fell, bad factors affected the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market fell. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is less than 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, and the actual transaction has little change. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride in East China has declined, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 8900-9000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 8700-8800 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8900-9000 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The price trend of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is declining.

This week, the price of domestic orthobenzene is stable, with an on-site price of 9000 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price of 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The stable price of domestic orthobenzene is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. Recently, the market trend of imported orthobenzene in the port area has remained high, and the external quotation of orthobenzene is temporarily stable. Recently, the inventory of orthobenzene in the port area has not changed much, and the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. After detailed discussion on the actual sheet, the price trend of orthobenzene is stable, and the price of domestic phthalic anhydride has declined.

The market price trend of DOP in the downstream of phthalic anhydride fell sharply this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 12025 yuan / ton by the end of the weekend, with a price drop of 7.32%. The operation of DOP enterprises in the field was stable, the supply of DOP was normal, the price of isooctanol fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, the operation of DOP enterprises was low, the supply of DOP was sufficient, the price of PVC fell, the downstream demand fell, and the market transaction was general. The upward momentum of plasticizer DOP market is weakened and the downward pressure is increased. The transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The DOP price is 11700-12100 yuan / ton. The DOP price trend has fallen sharply this week, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has fallen due to the impact.

On the whole, the recent price trend of phthalic anhydride has been temporarily stable, but the market trend of downstream plasticizer industry has fallen, but the crude oil market is still supported. Affected by this, the phthalic anhydride market has a long and short game. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride may remain high in the later stage.

DOTP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the high DOTP price fell sharply this week, and the overall DOTP market fell. As of March 17, the price of DOTP was 12350 yuan / ton, down 5.54% from 13075 yuan / ton on March 10 last week, and up 3.13% from 11975 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. The high level of DOTP market fell back, and the price of DOTP returned to the level at the beginning of March.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week

 
According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol market fell from a high level this week. As of March 17, the price of isooctanol was 12733.33 yuan / ton, down 6.60% from 13633.33 yuan / ton on March 11 last week. Since the release of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the high price of isooctanol has fallen. This week, the price of isooctanol has fallen sharply, the cost of DOTP has decreased, the upward momentum of DOTP has weakened, and the downward pressure has increased.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell

 
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA price fell sharply this week, and the overall PTA market fell back from the high level. As of March 17, the PTA price was 5732.73 yuan / ton, down 12.55% from 6555.50 yuan / ton on March 9 last week. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to ease, with crude oil prices plummeting and PTA prices plummeting. PTA prices fell, DOTP costs fell, and DOTP bearishness increased.

Future expectations

DOTP data analysts believe that with the easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil prices have fallen sharply, PTA prices have fallen, isooctanol prices have fallen, costs have fallen, and the downward pressure of DOTP has increased. Generally speaking, the price of raw materials fell, the support of rising costs weakened, the demand for DOTP was temporarily stable, and the price of DOTP fell. In the future, as the price of raw materials returns to stability, the cost of DOTP tends to stabilize. It is expected that the price of DOTP will stabilize after falling in the future.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of March 16, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 9100 yuan / ton. Compared with March 13 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8916 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 184 yuan / ton, or 2.06%, and compared with March 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8633 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 467 yuan / ton, or 11.43%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in March, the domestic n-propanol market continued to rise. This week, with the support of raw material cost, the market focus of n-propanol continued to operate upward, the downstream demand was normal, and the trading atmosphere was mild. On the 14th and 15th of the week, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong was adjusted upward by 200-300 yuan / ton, and then the market of n-propanol continued to consolidate at a high level. As of March 16, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8400-8900 yuan / ton, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is stable, and the ex factory price of n-propanol is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, since March, the overall market price of ethylene has shown an upward trend. As of March 15, the reference price of ethylene was US $1480.25/ton, up 17.78% compared with us $1256.75/ton on March 1. On March 15, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1737-1747 / ton, up US $10 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1487-1495 / ton, up US $4 / ton. On March 15, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $636-653 / ton, down US $37 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market fell and the demand was general. On March 15, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1296-1306 / ton, down US $50 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1296-1306 / ton, down US $50 / ton.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of n-propanol market is good, and the raw materials still support the market in the short term. According to the analysts of business society, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly high and strong in the near future, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

This week (3.7-11), the domestic liquid ammonia market rebounded, the prices in Shandong and Hebei rebounded slightly, the market was weak and stable at the beginning of the week, and the market began to pick up gradually in the middle of the week. It is mainly driven by the downstream urea market. Enterprises turn to urea more, resulting in lower ammonia volume and tight supply, which improves the market. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 11, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 3.02%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4300-4500 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, this week, the overall ammonia release in many places in China decreased significantly compared with the previous week, and the supply of manufacturers decreased slightly. With the rise of urea market and the continuous expansion of profits from liquid ammonia and urea, enterprises have switched to urea. Many large factories in Shandong, Shanxi and other places have switched to urea, and the supporting facilities in the lower reaches of Western Shandong have been restored. Some enterprises in Hubei have stopped for maintenance, such as Xiangyun, Yihua and sanning. Narrow supply is the fundamental reason to support the rise of liquid ammonia price.

On the cost side, the upstream coal market is affected by the regulation policy, and the price fluctuates lower. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. However, the price of natural gas is still high, which has a great driving effect on gas head enterprises.

On the demand side, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2732.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2902.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.22%, up 38.41% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Agricultural demand has started and industrial demand has increased. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. After the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plant and plate plant will gradually resume work, and the bargain hunting will be followed up. After a sharp rise in the market price of melamine in the downstream, it fell slightly, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. From the perspective of supply: at present, the daily output of urea is more than 160000 tons, and the supply is sufficient. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the supply of urea is sufficient, and the slight rise of urea in the future is the main.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, but the opening of the curve has expanded recently, and urea is obviously better than liquid ammonia. The strong profit of urea has led ammonia enterprises to switch to urea.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram shows that the current liquid ammonia industry chain continues to improve, and the price of natural gas upstream of the gas head rises. However, the performance of coal head is weak, and the performance of liquid ammonia is also good, but the performance of downstream is weak except urea plate.

Future forecast: the business society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is stable and partially tight, and the market is expected to continue to improve, but we still need to pay attention to the degree of demand recovery and the duration of downstream urea market. It is expected that the price of liquid ammonia may still increase in the near future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 generally rose last week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of March 14, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of the sample enterprises was about 16500 yuan / ton, up or down by + 4.65% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in the upstream, caprolactam and its raw material pure benzene were still supported by the rise of crude oil price last week, the remote cost strengthened, and the enterprise raised the price. Near the weekend, crude oil callback, caprolactam horizontal consolidation. In the short term, the price position of raw materials will continue to be high, and the orders in the early stage will be delivered one after another. It is expected that the price of caprolactam may be strong.

After the price of caprolactam in the upstream rose, the cost side support of PA6 strengthened. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is relatively stable at 70%. Due to the increasing uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the market is worried about the supply fluctuation of energy and other bulk commodities in the future. The petrochemical industry chain may remain high in the short term, and PA6 news and cost side support is strong. Last week, the supply side continued the previous abundant pattern, and the demand of downstream enterprises was flat. In addition to contract production and delivery, there were few large-scale goods preparation on site. The weakness of downstream purchasing caused the shortage of PA6 after rising, and the trading situation was poor within the week. The main benefit of PA6 was still the cost side.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 fluctuated Youzhang last week, the trend of caprolactam rose, and the cost support of PA6 strengthened. The terminal demand weakened, and the buyer’s resistance to the high price supply led to the rise and fall of PA6. It is expected that the PA6 market may remain strong and volatile in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market continued to rise this week, and the spot prices of various brands increased to a certain extent. As of March 11, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 14700 yuan / ton, up or down + 4.26% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene strengthened and rose this week. International crude oil rose sharply, pure benzene also increased greatly, and the cost side gave strong support to styrene. At present, the spot supply is reduced slightly, the downstream is dominated by digestion contracts, and the spot trading is acceptable. The styrene market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

Acrylonitrile market is warmer this week. At present, the cost side support of acrylonitrile is stronger, and enterprises raise product prices. In terms of industry load, some enterprises have maintenance plans in the near future, and the supply is expected to shrink in the short term. However, the period of rapid production of the industry is not over, and there are still enterprises in operation in the near future. The inventory position of midstream merchants has been partially digested, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term.

The domestic butadiene market rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the sharp rise of crude oil affected the increase of butadiene cost pressure. Under the negative expectation of the inventory reduction of some cracking units, the market supply side was supported. At the same time, the news side boosted by the sharp rise of crude oil. The prices of domestic butadiene suppliers increased continuously, and some bidding sources increased significantly, driving the spot market to break through 10000 quickly.

This week, the market of ABS upstream three materials is OK, and the cost side support is stronger. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises is high, the overall supply is high and the prognosis is abundant. The ABS market is still in the high inventory position of enterprises and downstream, which is affected by pressure. In the early stage, the terminal enterprises return to work and the demand is launched, and the trading volume is large in stages. In addition, the uncertainty of the current situation in Eastern Europe has increased, and the main positive factor in the market is the remote upstream. However, the spot price shrinks, and the mentality of businesses weakens.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continues to rise this week, and the trend of upstream three materials rises, which has strong support for the cost side of ABS. The spot supply of ABS enterprises remains at a high level. At present, the downstream demand is more and more cautious due to the impact of spot price rise, and the digestion of domestic inventory location is slow. It is expected that the spot market of ABS may be dominated by shock consolidation in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of March 10, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8833 yuan / ton. Compared with March 6 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8633 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 2.32%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week, the overall domestic n-propanol market continued to rise steadily. From the beginning of this week (7th), driven by the rise of raw materials and supported by costs, the domestic n-propanol market has operated strongly. The overall market price of n-propanol in Shandong has increased slightly by 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand side of n-propanol is relatively normal, the downstream procurement is mainly rigid demand, and the on-site trading atmosphere is acceptable. As of March 10, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8300-8650 yuan / ton, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is stable, and the ex factory price of n-propanol is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, according to the monitoring data of business society, the outer disc price of ethylene rose this week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1317.50/ton, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1423.75/ton, an increase of 8.06%. The current price rose by 12.55% month on month, and the current price rose by 19.14% year-on-year. This week, the external ethylene market generally showed an upward trend. The market price of ethylene in Asia rose sharply. As of the 9th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1356-1366 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1356-1366 / ton. European ethylene market prices rose sharply. As of the 9th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1582-1592 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1381-1390 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated slightly. As of the 9th, the price was 794-812 yuan / ton. The external ethylene market rose sharply this week, which was mainly affected by the sharp rise of upstream crude oil. The price rise was gratifying, and the rise of ethylene in Europe and Asia was relatively large.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of n-propanol market is mild, and the downstream demand is mainly on demand. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that the short-term domestic n-propanol market is mainly high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes of supply and demand.

The lead market (2.25-3.4) rose first and then fell this week. The average price of the domestic market was 15430 yuan / ton last weekend and 15365 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.42% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that have increased month on month in the list of commodity prices in the 9th week of 2022 (2.28-3.4). The top three commodities are nickel (4.98%), metallic silicon (3.69%) and aluminum (3.27%). There are 5 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (- 10.40%), magnesium (- 7.61%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (- 1.12%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.26%.

After the 25th, under the influence of Russia and Ukraine, the external metal rebounded sharply, and Lun lead was boosted by the main actors, which once rose to a high in recent March. The spot market rose first and then fell this week. Basically, the downstream battery industry is about to enter the traditional off-season in March. The overall market mentality is weak, and the output of battery enterprises is expected to decline. At present, the price advantage of recycled lead is obvious, and some demand turns to the recycled lead market, which once again affects the mentality of the primary lead market. At present, the social inventory is still on the high side, dragging down the market mentality, and the price is down near the weekend. Overall, the current lead inventory has an increasing trend, high inventory has dragged down the performance of the domestic market, and the performance of the spot market is weak.

In the future market, the business society believes that at present, the downstream has entered the traditional off-season, and the demand support is weak. In addition, the overall high lead ingot inventory affects the rising space of lead price. At present, the metal market is generally stronger under the influence of the international situation. The price of lead is difficult to have a large upper space due to the restriction of demand and high inventory. It is expected to be stable and strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13587 yuan / ton on February 28 and 13900 yuan / ton on March 6. The price of caprolactam rose 2.30% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam prices rose this week. Due to the rise of crude oil this week, the price of raw material pure benzene rises, and the cost is supported. Downstream procurement is mainly contract orders, and the demand needs to be followed up. As of March 6, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 14200 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14200 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14200 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical Liquid caprolactam liquid has no quotation, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The price of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam bulk water is 14300 yuan / ton, which is accepted and sent to East China, and the manufacturer’s unit capacity is 300000 tons / year.

Raw material pure benzene fell narrowly in the first half of the week and rebounded broadly in the second half of the week. Due to the loss of profits of downstream main products, some units have reduced the load and stopped, and the demand for pure benzene is insufficient; Shandong local refining enterprises generally take goods; Superimposed on the weak price of styrene, pure benzene weakened slightly at the beginning of the week. In the second half of the week, affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, crude oil soared and the external market rose, driving the domestic pure benzene market to rise. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene twice, a total of 600 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that due to the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices and the continuous rise in the price of raw material pure benzene, caprolactam is the main player in the market. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to rise in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes in raw material prices.