1、 Price data

According to the data of business news agency, as of May 31, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6446.00 yuan / ton, up 2.16% from 6310.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On May 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 130.55, up 0.2 points from yesterday, down 0.37% from the highest point 131.04 in the cycle (2022-03-24), and up 183.31% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of domestic fuel oil 180CST rose this month, and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials supported the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of May 31, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan area of China National combustion Corporation were 6450 yuan / ton and 6500 yuan / ton respectively; The quotation for 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6350 yuan / ton, and the quotation for 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6450 yuan / ton.

In May, the international crude oil rose violently, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

The increase in fuel oil inventories in Singapore has limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of May 25, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil, including fuel oil and low sulfur wax containing residual oil, increased by 2339000 barrels to 21.106 million barrels; Inventories of light distillates including naphtha, gasoline and reformate increased by 1717000 barrels to 15461000 barrels; The inventory of medium distillate oil decreased by 84000 barrels to 7.285 million barrels.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The rise of international crude oil has boosted the domestic fuel market. The price of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market is strong, the cost of the ship fuel market is high, the market terminal demand is weak, the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the overall transaction in the market is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6400-6500 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6500-6600 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the domestic PA66 market fell weakly and steadily in May, and the spot prices of various brands fell significantly. As of May 30, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding grade sample enterprises of business club was about 26000 yuan / ton on average, with an increase or decrease of -2.80% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the price of adipic acid in China gradually fell at the end of last month, and the weak market in the early period continued in May. On the demand side, the adipic acid trading is not ideal, the domestic supply is abundant, and the port arrival level is average, so the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The upstream raw material adipic acid market is weak, adiponitrile market is abundant, and PA66 cost side support is poor. In terms of industrial operating rate, it decreased slightly at the beginning of the month, but the load level of domestic PA66 enterprises was still high in May. There is a lot of spot supply on the site, and the profit of PA66 enterprise is under pressure. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. The impact of domestic health events on East China in this month has not yet ended, and logistics in many places have been affected to varying degrees. The demand of some domestic downstream factories has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The turnover on the floor declined, superimposed on the end of the month, and the seller’s mentality was poor, so he let the single operation of profit take the lead.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the spot price of PA66 fell in May. The adiponitrile market at the raw material end is weak, and the cost side support of PA66 is poor. The load of PA66 enterprise is high, the on-site supply is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of enterprises and midstream is increasing. The demand side is short of goods, so it is expected that PA66 will be affected by the contradiction between supply and demand and maintain a weak market in the short term.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite was slightly stronger this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3150.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.53% within the week.

With the gradual recovery of domestic logistics and transportation, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market trading picked up this week. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3000-3400 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were around 3200 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are only for reference and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

Since the beginning of May, the price of domestic soda ash has increased by 6.05%, and the price of sulfur has increased by 13.29%. The price of raw materials has continued to rise. The cost will further support the future market price of sodium pyrosulfite.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of the business club, the market trade rebounded slightly, the raw material cost continued to be high, and the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will continue to be stable, medium and strong in the short term.

According to the bulk commodity list data of the business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1320.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1300.00 yuan / ton, down 1.52%. The current price fell 7.36% month on month, and the current price fell 10.81% year on year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that formaldehyde has mainly fallen in recent two months, and the market continues to decline this week. As of May 26, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1270-1350 yuan / ton. Recently, due to domestic public health incidents, the downstream plate factories have weakened due to the difficulty of cargo transportation, and the demand is low. The inventory in Linyi area is high, the warehouse removal is not smooth, and the market is weak and falling.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of May 26:

Region, Price

East China, 1390 yuan / ton

Central China, 1370 yuan / ton

South China, 1420 yuan / ton

Northwest China, 1300 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol situation: according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic methanol market recently was 2647 yuan / ton, and the market fell. The raw coal price and oil price are strong. The downstream Tianjin Bohai Chemical MTO is expected to be put into operation. At present, the supply side is relatively abundant. Under the current situation, the domestic methanol market may fall in the short term due to the game between supply and demand.

This week, the methanol market fell slightly, the cost support was general, the capacity utilization rate in the formaldehyde field was higher, the inventory increased, the operation of the downstream plate plant was at a low level due to the impact of public safety events, maintaining the rigid demand for procurement, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and the formaldehyde manufacturers took the initiative to reduce the quotation in order to ship, and the market continued to decline.

Recently, the domestic methanol market fluctuated and fell, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants was weak. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society predicted that the recent decline in the price of formaldehyde in Shandong was mainly below.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 25, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11633.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.87% compared with the price on May 20, a decrease of 0.29% compared with the price on April 25, and a year-on-year increase of 1.45% in a three-month cycle.

Recently (5.20-5.25), the propylene oxide market has been in a stalemate, the quotation of enterprises is mainly stable, and the price of some enterprises has increased slightly. Recently, the market of raw material propylene has fallen, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has fallen after rising, the cost support has weakened, the supply side is mainly stable, and the inventory has accumulated slightly and slowly. However, the multi inventory pressure of manufacturers is controllable, which supports the market mentality. The downstream demand is cold, the procurement enthusiasm is weakened, and the market is in a stalemate. On the 25th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10800-10900 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of propylene was 8200.60 on May 24, a decrease of 2.54% compared with May 1 (8414.60).

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of business society, on May 24, the reference price of propylene glycol was 12733.33, an increase of 12.68% compared with May 1 (11300.00)

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the cost support is weak, the inventory on the supply side is temporarily controllable, and the demand side is cold. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be deadlocked and weakened in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur in East China rose slightly this week. On May 22, the quotation of sulfur was 4006.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.21% during the week and 9.47% month on month compared with the price of 3920.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The sulfur market continued to rise this week, the domestic supply was still tight, the refinery maintenance was concentrated, the output was limited, the enterprise inventory remained low, and the downstream demand was stable. At the same time, the port sulfur inventory was small, and the price was mainly high, which was good for the support of the sulfur market. The prices of refinery enterprises were sorted up during the week. As of the 22nd, the price of sulfur fixation in refineries in Shandong is between 4000-4100 yuan / ton, and the price range of liquid sulfur is 3900-4000 yuan / ton.

The sulfuric acid market operated weakly and stably this week, and the price trend was stable during the week. The quotation was 1072 yuan / ton on May 22, down 1.83% compared with last weekend. The inventory of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers is general, the downstream demand is weak, and the overall market is weak during the week. The quotation of sulfuric acid manufacturers is reduced according to their own shipment.

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market rose strongly, with an increase of 7.99% in one week. The manufacturer’s inventory was tight, the downstream enterprises just needed to follow up, the supplier’s shipment was smooth, and the price trend of Monoammonium rose. Diammonium rose by 6.04% during the week. The supply of diammonium in the market was tight. Most enterprises suspended quotation and mainly exported orders. The increase of raw material price and the improvement of export supported the high-level operation of diammonium.

According to the sulfur analyst of business society, the supply of domestic sulfur market is tight, the enterprise inventory is low, the downstream demand is stable and positive, coupled with the high support of port sulfur, the operator’s mentality is optimistic. It is expected that the sulfur market will continue to operate strongly in the future, and pay attention to the market follow-up.

1、 Price data

As of May 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8180.75 yuan / ton, up 0.31% from 8155.75 yuan / ton on May 16. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8200-8300 yuan / ton.

As of May 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8055.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with 8055.00 yuan / ton on May 16. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 8100-8200 yuan / ton.

On May 22, the naphtha commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.99% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 139.04% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fluctuated this week, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal demand was not significantly good, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates, and the market focus has gradually got rid of the fear of demand, and the focus has gradually returned to the expectation of supply tightening. The short-term market is still affected by the expected impact of EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, and oil prices are strongly supported. The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warned that the market would see more than 7 million barrels of Russian oil and other liquid oil export losses per day. As the ability of many oil producing countries in the world to increase production rapidly is limited, the oil price may remain high in the foreseeable future, and the crude oil market price is strongly supported. Especially at present, the epidemic still plays a role, and the future demand may become the biggest constraint on the oil price. Of course, under the background of the Russian Ukrainian war, Russia’s oil supply is affected by intensive Western sanctions. The current situation is more complex. The impact of oil prices from the supply side will play a role in the long term to further offset the negative impact of the demand side.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, toluene rose broadly this week. The price was 7540 yuan / ton on May 13 and 7860 yuan / ton on May 20, up 4.24% from last week. The price of mixed xylene rose this week. The price was 7660 yuan / ton on May 13 and 7810 yuan / ton on May 20, up 1.96% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 6.45% from 9300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil price fluctuates, the naphtha market is generally traded, and the terminal is not significantly good. The market just needs procurement, and the market has strong wait-and-see mood. At present, there is procurement demand for local refining and reorganization, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha may rise slightly in the near future.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite was strong this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 3133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3150 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.53% during the week.

The overall performance of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market this week is acceptable. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 2900-3400 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 3100-3200 yuan / ton. The enterprise inventory is about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact manufacturers for details).

Since the beginning of May, the price of domestic soda ash has increased by 2.33% and the price of sulfur has increased by 11.71%. The continuous rise in the price of upstream raw materials will further support the market price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the cost of raw materials continues to rise, the downstream demand is stable as a whole, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be stable, medium and strong in the short term.

From May 6 to May 13, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China remained stable temporarily after falling. The price was 81000 yuan / ton last weekend and 80250 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.93%.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As can be seen from the above figure, the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot Market around the Spring Festival entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, and the decline slowed down at the end of April.

Price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD / ton)

varieties., May 7, May 13, Rise and fall

European small metal antimony, 14800.,14600.,- two hundred

The price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe continued to decline this week, but the downward trend slowed down. By May 13, the price was $14600 / ton, down $200 / ton weekly. Industry insiders said that the recent reduction of overseas orders was obvious, and the overall market trading was weak.

The price of antimony ingot decreased slightly this week, and the trend continued the pre holiday decline. The decline of counter dyeing slowed down, but the overall situation is still in downward space. Basically, the current domestic traffic situation is gradually improving, while the passive production reduction of downstream manufacturers caused by tight supply at the mine end still affects the output of antimony ingots. The tight supply supports the price of antimony ingots and alleviates the recent downward trend to a certain extent. The specific resumption time is not available for the time being. Affected by the production reduction in some areas in the downstream, the overall commencement is limited, and the demand for antimony ingots slows down. Most of them maintain on-demand procurement, affecting the demand for antimony ingots and the market mentality. Under the influence of the weak overall trading in the upstream and downstream, it is expected that the antimony ingot Market will remain stable and weak after the festival, and the price will continue to be adjusted slightly.

Relevant information:

Guizhou Province issued the “14th five year plan” for heavy metal pollution prevention and control to solicit opinions from the public: in order to further promote the “14th five year plan” for heavy metal pollution prevention and control, Guizhou Provincial Department of ecological environment drafted the “14th five year plan” for heavy metal pollution prevention and control in Guizhou Province (Draft for comments) (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”), and now solicits opinions from the public. The deadline for public consultation is 18:00 on May 19, 2022. The plan clearly puts forward three prevention and control priorities: 1) key heavy metal pollutants. The key heavy metal pollutants to be prevented and controlled are lead, mercury, cadmium, chromium, arsenic, thallium and antimony, and the total amount of five key heavy metal pollutants such as lead, mercury, cadmium, chromium and arsenic shall be controlled. 2) Key industries. It includes six industries: Mining and beneficiation of heavy non-ferrous metals (mining and beneficiation of copper, lead-zinc, nickel cobalt, tin, antimony and mercury), smelting of heavy non-ferrous metals (smelting of copper, lead-zinc, nickel cobalt, tin, antimony and mercury), lead battery manufacturing, electroplating industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing (calcium carbide (poly) vinyl chloride manufacturing, chromium salt manufacturing, zinc inorganic compound industry with industrial solid waste as raw material), leather tanning and processing industry. 3) Key areas. Hezhang County of Bijie City is the key area of heavy metal pollution prevention and control in the 14th five year plan. Among the key tasks, the plan proposes to strengthen the supervision and law enforcement of heavy metal pollution, and requires to strengthen the monitoring and early warning of heavy metal pollution. Local ecological and environmental departments shall install automatic monitoring systems for thallium, antimony and other characteristic heavy metal pollutants based on automatic water quality monitoring stations in the downstream of thallium and antimony related industrial enterprises or areas with dense solid waste distribution.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 18, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is 11666 yuan / ton. Compared with May 15 (the ex factory price of butanone is 12500 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 834 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.67%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that this week, the domestic butanone market continued to be weak and fell. The downstream demand is weak, there are few new orders on the floor, the confidence of operators is suppressed, and the contradiction between supply and demand on the floor of butanone is revealed. The market began to decline all the way at the beginning of this week. Butanone factories and suppliers successively adjusted the price of butanone downward, with a reduction range of about 200-400 yuan / ton per day. As of the 18th, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 11500-11700 yuan / ton, with a cumulative decrease of 600-1000 yuan / ton during the week, with a decrease of more than 6% during the week. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the butanone floor is still weak, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is still there, and the new order transaction negotiation is mainly.

Upstream, the domestic liquefied gas market fluctuated this week. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of liquefied gas was 6337.50 yuan on May 17, a decrease of 0.40% compared with May 14 (6362 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the downstream demand of butanone is general, and the downstream support is weak. Butanone analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand of butanone.