This week, the spot tin market price (2.3-2.10) fluctuated downward. The average price in the domestic market was 227010 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 217610 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 4.14%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will rise as a whole after November 2022 due to the influence of macro factors.

Futures market this week

Variety/ Closing price/ Compared with the same period last week/ Inventory (ton)/ Change from last week’s inventory (ton)

SHANGHAI tin/ 218140 yuan/ton/- 10260 yuan/ton/ 7856./+830

London tin/ US $27270/ton/- 730 dollars/ton/ 3205./+25

In terms of the futures market, Lunxi’s trend this week was weak as a whole, falling by about 2% this week. The main reason was that the US dollar index rose on Monday, and the metal market was generally under pressure. After the shock trend of the US dollar index, the metal market was generally down this week. Shanghai Tin fell nearly 5% in the week following the trend of Lunxi.

In terms of the spot market, this week, following the trend of the Shanghai Tin Exchange, the overall downward trend, the trading volume was general, and the downstream purchase was on demand, and the actual transaction was limited. On the supply side, with the end of the holiday, the smelter gradually began to resume work, the operating rate rose from the previous period, and the concentrate processing fee decreased slightly. It will take some time to fully recover. In terms of demand, as tin prices fell, the willingness of the downstream market to seek bargains and replenish stocks recovered, and there were many inquiries. With the end of the holiday, there was also a certain demand for replenishing stocks. On the whole, the atmosphere in the field gradually returned to normal after the holiday, and there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream, but most of them were based on the purchase of just needed goods. In the future, it is expected that the tin market will still maintain a stable, moderate and weak trend, and the subsequent focus will be on the recovery of downstream demand.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1191 points on February 12, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.56% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 96.21% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, there were four commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 6th week of 2023 (2.6-2.10), with antimony (3.94%), nickel (2.96%) and lead (0.49%) among the top three commodities. A total of 17 commodities fell on a month-on-month basis, and the first three products fell were Praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 4.35%), dysprosium ferroalloy (- 2.46%) and dysprosium oxide (- 2.45%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.82%.

The price of o-xylene is temporarily stable this week

According to the price trend chart of ortho-xylene of the business community, the price of ortho-xylene was 7800 yuan/ton as of February 10, which was temporarily stable compared with 7800 yuan/ton of ortho-xylene as of February 1. The market of ortho-xylene industry chain is stagnant, and the domestic ortho-xylene market is temporarily stable.

The market of raw material mixed xylene fell slightly this week

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene of the business agency that the price of mixed xylene fell sharply this week. As of February 10, the price of mixed xylene was 7350 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.41% compared with 7380 yuan/ton on January 31; It was slightly lower than 7390 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend, down 0.54%. The price of mixed xylene is weak and unstable, the cost of ortho-xylene is stagnant, and the downward pressure of ortho-xylene is still weak.

The downstream phthalic anhydride market is deadlocked this week

It can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride of the business community that the price of phthalic anhydride was deadlocked and adjusted this week. As of February 10, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8237.50 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.15% compared with the price of 8225 yuan/ton on February 5. Downstream demand is stable, the market of o-phthalic anhydride is stagnant, and the downward pressure of o-xylene is still weak.

Future prospects

According to the analyst of adjacent xylene data of the business agency, the market of the upstream and downstream of the adjacent xylene industry chain was stagnant this week, the price of mixed xylene fell slightly, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. In the future, the cost of ortho-xylene tends to stabilize and the demand is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price of ortho-xylene will be temporarily stable in the future.

From January 27 to February 3, 2023, the bidding price of crude benzene rose from 5549 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5725 yuan/ton at the end of this week, with a weekly increase of 3.17%.

International crude oil futures continued to fall on February 2. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was US $75.88/barrel, down US $0.53 or 0.7%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 82.17 US dollars/barrel, down 0.67 US dollars or 0.8%. The continued strength of the US dollar depressed the crude oil valuation. In addition, the oil price continued to be under pressure due to the weak economic data.

Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, and China’s demand outlook was affected by generally optimistic expectations. At the end of 2022, since China relaxed the epidemic restrictions, the economic growth prospects have been gradually strengthened, driving the recovery of oil demand. At the same time, the performance of the supply side has stabilized, OPEC has steadily implemented the production reduction, and Russia’s oil exports have gradually stabilized. Under the background of the continuous improvement of demand in the oil market, the international oil price rose. In the later period, the inflation level of western economies remained high, and the tightening of monetary policy may be maintained for a long time. The Federal Reserve began a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, and the expectation of interest rate increase brought pressure to the risk asset side. The final result of monetary policy will be released on Wednesday (local time), and the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points. In addition, the European Central Bank will also announce an interest rate increase when it meets on Thursday. Under the macro negative pressure, the trend of crude oil prices fell.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on January 13, 2023, and the current price is 6950 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6953 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7050 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-column chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, slightly warmed at the end of August and the beginning of September, and the price mainly declined from October to December, and warmed in January.

Industrial chain: the pure benzene market rose first and then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, supported by the external market and crude oil prices, the price of pure benzene was the main factor. Sinopec raised the ex-factory price of pure benzene. The market offer was positive, the transaction was fair, and the market price was up. At the weekend, the trend of crude oil and styrene was low, affecting the market mentality, and the market trading was slightly cold. Hydrogenated benzene market was the main market this week, with the price of 7200 yuan/ton in Hebei, the main production area.

The crude benzol market was the dominant market this week, with the mainstream price in Shandong Province ranging from 5830 to 5835 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the coking enterprises started this week basically the same as before the festival, and the overall start was fair, and the crude benzene supply was sufficient. In terms of demand, the recent downstream construction is OK. Some enterprises have a certain procurement plan after the festival, and the demand for crude benzene is still there. This week, the auction price of each production area has increased slightly since Tuesday, boosted by the rise of the industrial chain in the first half of the week. Overall, crude benzene demand support still exists, but the recent decline of crude oil has dragged down the market mentality, and the price of hydrogenation benzene has declined, with both negative and positive results. It is expected that crude benzene price will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range. The future market will focus on the impact of the trend of basic products such as crude oil and styrene on the market mentality.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of Business News Agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has risen recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8600.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The price fell 4.04% from the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the styrene market price fluctuated and fell. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has been mainly rising in shock, and the price has started to decline this week. The international crude oil price fell continuously, the pure benzene market fell, the cost support was poor, the downstream demand was recovering, and the styrene market mainly fell with the cost decline.

In terms of raw materials, the trend of pure benzene this week fluctuated. On January 30, the price of pure benzene was 7000-7300 yuan/ton (average price: 7150 yuan/ton), and on Thursday (February 2), the price of pure benzene was 7000-7100 yuan/ton (average price: 7050 yuan/ton), up 0.11% from last week and 1.46% from the same period last year. The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market.

Downstream, the three major downstream of styrene rose and fell in different ways. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS common material was 9733 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of PS common material was 9633 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. At present, the PS market is weak, styrene continues to be weak, merchants are weak in shipping, and the focus of negotiation is moving down. Reference for quotation of mainstream brands excluding tax: Zhenjiang Qimei PG33 reported 10330-10340 yuan/ton, Taiwan Taihua 5250 reported 9100 yuan/ton, Ningbo Taihua 535N reported 9090-9100 yuan/ton, Shanghai SECCO 123P reported 9280 yuan/ton, Thai Petrochemical 150 reported 9880 yuan/ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 reported 8440-8450 yuan/ton.

Recently, the EPS price fluctuated and consolidated. The overall turnover weakened on a month-on-month basis. The average price of EPS ordinary materials is 10275 yuan/ton, and the buying enthusiasm is not high. The EPS market quotation is weak, and the manufacturers maintain a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand performance is low.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has risen slightly. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average price on February 3 was 12100 yuan/ton, 0.82% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month. At present, the downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, are in order to prepare goods, and the recent demand is fair, and the goods are normally transported in the field. Buyers and merchants followed the market and performed steadily.

The crude oil price has fallen continuously and the cost support is general, but the downstream recovery is accelerating, and the styrene inventory on the floor is low. It is expected that the styrene market will be subject to higher volatility.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell this week

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 6, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 11075 yuan/ton, down 4.94% from 11650 yuan/ton on January 29. The cost fell, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell this week.

The price of raw materials fell

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 6, the price of fluorite was 3150 yuan/ton, down 0.40% from the price of 3162.50 yuan/ton on January 29 last weekend; As of February 6, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10000 yuan/ton, down by 8.50% from 10928.57 yuan/ton on January 29. The price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride increased.

Downstream prices fall after the holiday

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 6, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18750 yuan/ton, down by 1.28% from 18993.33 yuan/ton on January 29. After the holiday, the demand for aluminum ingots remains weak, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates and falls, the demand for aluminum fluoride is weak, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride is increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of the aluminum fluoride industry of the Business Agency believe that the price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell after the holiday, while the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials fell; The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and fell, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was weak. As the cost of aluminum fluoride decreases, the demand is weak, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride is increased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in the future.

The domestic cobalt price fell sharply in January

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of January 31, the domestic cobalt price was 297200 yuan/ton, down 8.10% from the cobalt price of 323400 yuan/ton on January 1. Both supply and demand in the cobalt market are weak, the international cobalt price continues to fluctuate and fall, the cobalt salt price falls in a weak way, and the domestic cobalt price falls sharply.

MB cobalt price fell sharply in January

From the trend chart of MB cobalt price in January, it can be seen that the MB cobalt price fell sharply in January, the MB cobalt price fell sharply in the first ten days, the MB cobalt price fell slightly in the middle and late ten days, the international cobalt price fell, the domestic cobalt market fell, the domestic cobalt price fell pressure increased, and the downward pressure of the future cobalt price remained.

LME cobalt price fell sharply in January

It can be seen from the LME cobalt price trend chart that the LME cobalt price fell sharply in January, the LME cobalt price fell in the first ten days of January, the cobalt price stabilized in the middle and late ten days, the international cobalt price fell, and the domestic cobalt market fell. With the cobalt price stabilized, the downward pressure on the domestic cobalt price weakened in the future.

The price of cobalt salt fell slightly in January

It can be seen from the cobalt salt price trend chart that the cobalt salt price fell slightly in January, but the decline of cobalt salt slowed down, the downward pressure on the cobalt market industry chain weakened, and the downward pressure on the domestic cobalt market weakened.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with the data of Business News Agency, believes that the international cobalt price fell sharply in January, and the domestic cobalt market was negative. The downward pressure of the cobalt market remained, the decline of the cobalt salt price slowed down, and the downward pressure of the domestic cobalt price weakened. It is expected that the future cobalt market will be weak and stable.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid fell slightly this month. The price of hydrochloric acid dropped from 174.00 yuan/ton on January 1 to 154.00 yuan/ton on January 30, a drop of 11.49%. The price at the end of the month fell 47.97% year-on-year.

The hydrochloric acid commodity index on January 29 was 45.79, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.79% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 154.67% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is insufficient, and the downstream procurement increases and decreases

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this month, and the downstream demand was average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated at a low level and the cost support is general. The market price of downstream ammonium chloride rose from 1145.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1157.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 1.09%, up 7.67% from the same period last year. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride fell slightly, from 2033.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2001.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 1.60%, down 20.19% from the same period last year. The downstream market fell slightly, and the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers for hydrochloric acid procurement weakened.

The market fell slightly in the aftermarket

In the first half of February, the market of hydrochloric acid was mainly subject to small fluctuations. The upstream liquid chlorine market was low and the cost support was general. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride market prices fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may be dominated by a small fluctuation.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market rose from 6733.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7100.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.45%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 58.24% year-on-year. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on January 15 was 36.04, which was the same as yesterday, down 65.86% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 19.65% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7250.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7330.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.10%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol is low, and the price is 9133.33 yuan/ton. The market price of neopentyl glycol is low, and the downstream demand is general, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde may rise slightly in the middle and late January. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, with good cost support. The market price of neopentyl glycol in the downstream market was low, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement was general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of the Business Club believes that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may be mainly subject to a small fluctuation under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the isobutyraldehyde market.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of January 13, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 14875.00 yuan/ton, and the price was stable this week. Compared with the same period last week, the price change was not obvious. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced and the delivery is slow.

This week, the domestic general transparent premium PMMA operated smoothly, and the logistics was gradually shut down near the end of the year. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained around 15000 yuan/ton. The overall market supply and demand was balanced, and the manufacturers gave up profits and took orders, and the downstream just needed to purchase. The enterprise quotation: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 14800 yuan/ton.

Rubber and plastic index: The rubber and plastic index stood at 664 points on January 12, which was the same as yesterday, down 37.36% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 25.76% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

PMMA analysts of Business Agency believe that PMMA will maintain stable operation in the short term.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell weakly after the holiday

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of January 6, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 12075 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from 12200 yuan/ton on January 1. The cost fell, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell after the holiday.

The price of raw materials fell in shock

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, as of January 6, the price of fluorite was 3175 yuan/ton, down 3.79% from the price of 3300 yuan/ton on January 1; As of January 6, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11214.29 yuan/ton, down 10.29% from 12500 yuan/ton on January 1. The price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell, the price of raw materials fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride increased.

Downstream demand decline

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of January 6, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 17706.67 yuan/ton, down by 5.30% from 18696.67 yuan/ton on January 1. The economic recovery was less than expected, the price of electrolytic aluminum fell, the demand for aluminum fluoride was poor, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of the aluminum fluoride industry of the Business Agency believe that the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have dropped sharply after the holiday, and the prices of electrolytic aluminum have dropped in a volatile manner. As the cost of aluminum fluoride decreases, the demand is poor, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride is increased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in a weak way in the future.