According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market has been fluctuating and organized. From May 29th to June 2nd, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3771 yuan/ton to 3784 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35%, a month on month decrease of 0.58%, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.50%. Recently, international crude oil has been operating weakly, coupled with rainfall in various regions, resulting in slightly flat demand and limited support for spot asphalt prices. There are differences in the situation of local refining, and the prices are mixed.
On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the total weekly production of asphalt is 579000 tons, an increase of 28000 tons compared to the previous month. The supply side is affected by negative factors.
Cost and crude oil: the market is worried about whether the US Congress will pass the US debt ceiling agreement, overlapping the internal differences of oil producing countries OEPC+, and the oil market is under pressure. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil for Business Society was 72.60 US dollars per barrel, while the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 68.09 US dollars per barrel. The cost side of the domestic oil industry chain is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. Some regions consume early stage resources, while rainfall in some regions leads to a decrease in downstream operating rates and a decrease in asphalt consumption. The overall demand side of the asphalt market is biased towards bearish effects.
As of the close of June 2nd, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2308 was opened at 3645 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3719 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3620 yuan/ton. It closed at 3710 yuan/ton, up 92% or 2.54% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 219779 lots, a holding volume of 129854 lots, and a daily increase of -12286 lots.
It is predicted that the supply will continue to rise and the market price will remain stable in the future. Downstream demand is weak and actual demand is weak. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly weak in the short term.