According to data monitored by Business Society, as of July 27th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 600 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 6600 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 6400 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and downstream demand procurement is the main focus. The negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On July 26th, the chemical index stood at 834 points, an increase of 4 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 39.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range being weak.

In July, the domestic bisphenol A market showed a trend of first rising and then declining. On July 1st, the mainstream price in East China was discussed at 9212 yuan/ton, and as of the 25th, the market was quoted at 9670 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.97%. Among them, on the 13th, the market rose to 10000 yuan/ton, maintaining the trend for nearly a week, with an amplitude of 8.55% in July.

In early July, the upward trend continued in mid to late June, with prices rising from 8700 yuan/ton in the early stage to 10000 yuan. This was mainly affected by supply side tensions. However, after maintaining a high price in mid July, due to severe demand shortage, the bisphenol A market turned downward, and the operating rate increased in late June. The severe supply side tension was alleviated, and as of July 25th, the market negotiations reached around 9700 yuan/ton.

The supply side eased in late July. Guangxi Huayi Bisphenol A Plant has restarted, and the operating rate has further increased. It is expected that the operating rate will increase to around 80% in August, indicating an improvement in market supply.

The two downstream markets further differentiate, resulting in sluggish demand for epoxy resin terminals, few new orders, and a weak market focus. The overall operating rate of the PC end has improved, with an increase in bisphenol A, but many devices are equipped with bisphenol A or have contracts, which has little impact on the market.

Cost side benefits support. Under the tight supply of dual raw materials phenol and acetone, prices continue to rise. On the other hand, due to the strong crude oil, the cost side is supported. The impact of factory inflation, limited import sources, and strong crude oil has a high probability of phenol and acetone firming up in the short term

The business society believes that the raw materials are strong and the upward cost support is strong, but the demand follow-up is slow, and it is difficult to make significant improvements in the short term. The supply side has improved, but the supply source is relatively concentrated, and the holders are clearly not willing to offer profits for shipment. Under the influence of multiple factors mentioned above, the rise and fall trend of bisphenol A depends on the changes in the influencing factors. On the 25th, there was a correction in the closing price, which does not exclude the possibility of a slight increase in the short term. However, the long-term sustained upward trend depends on the improvement of downstream demand.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of July 25th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4725 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price rose narrowly, dropping 4.42% in the week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market saw a narrow upward trend, with prices increasing by 4.42% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. The upstream cost support is insufficient, and shipments are slow. Manufacturers are giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in high inventory levels.

Chemical Index: On July 24th, the chemical index stood at 828 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.86% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 38.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily with a stronger trend.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of July 24, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7566 yuan/ton. Compared with July 17, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.85%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (7.17-7.24), the overall market situation of n-propanol in China has shown a downward trend. Last week (7.17-7.23), the domestic n-propanol market remained stable and consolidated overall, with little market fluctuation and relatively calm news. At the beginning of this week (July 24th), the center of gravity of the n-propanol market was moving downwards. Some large n-propanol factories and suppliers in Shandong lowered the prices of n-propanol by around 200 to 400 yuan/ton, driving the overall market downward and widening the price difference between high and low prices on the market. As of July 24th, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 6700-7600 yuan/ton. The market for n-propanol in Nanjing is relatively stable. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is relatively light, with downstream markets mainly focusing on procurement and cautious stocking. According to the n-propanol data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Price trend

The recent trend of the domestic PA66 market has remained negative. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the benchmark price of domestic PA66 was 18833.33 yuan/ton on July 21, a decrease of -4.24% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market continued its previous weak trend, and overall, spot prices of various brands continued to decline. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at around 65%, a narrow increase compared to the previous period. Some production lines of enterprises are only resuming work, and the on-site supply of goods is still relatively sufficient, so the supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in terms of inventory, negative corporate confidence, and cautious pricing operations. Upstream, the domestic market of Hexamethylenediamine is weak. Adipic acid market rose, with both pure benzene and Cyclohexanone as raw materials during the week, and Adipic acid kept up. However, due to the price fluctuation in the early stage, the current Adipic acid has no obvious profit on the spot of PA66. PA66 raw material side has poor support for spot goods, and the demand situation is weak and stable. Terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production, and buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the spot price of PA66 is mainly down. The price trend of the raw material side is acceptable, but the support for the cost side of PA66 is average. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and there is no significant improvement in supply support. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak and vulnerable market in the short term.

Precious metal prices rose in July

Precious metal prices rose in July. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of gold in the Spot market will be 454.47 yuan/g on July 14, 2023, up 1.31% from 448.60 yuan/g in the Spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1)

Silver fell back to the beginning of the month

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of silver in the market will be 5808 yuan/kg on July 14, 2023, up 6.92% from 5432.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month (July 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

Policy Fundamentals Data

Data shows that the US consumer price index recorded its smallest annual increase in more than two years in June, prompting traders to bet that the Federal Reserve may end the current rate hike cycle after raising interest rates this month. Before the data was released, CME Federal Reserve observation showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged from 5.00% to 5.25% in July was 7.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.25% to 5.50% was 92.4%; The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by September is 6.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase is 75.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase is 18.5%. After the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged from 5.00% to 5.25% in July is 10.1%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.25% to 5.50% is 89.9%; The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by September is 8.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase is 80.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase is 10.8%.

noble metal

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of Gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

It is expected that the price of precious metals will fluctuate strongly and consolidate in July, with a bullish outlook in the medium to long term.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of July 14, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton. Compared with July 7, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7833 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.7-7.14), the overall market situation of domestic n-propanol showed a slight decline. This week, some suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong region have lowered their outbound prices of n-propanol by a narrow margin, around 100-200 yuan/ton. The main factors affecting the narrow decline in market prices are small price adjustments by some factories and adjustments made by some suppliers based on their own inventory and shipment situation. As of July 14th, the market price of n-propanol in the Shandong region of China is around 7000-7500 yuan/ton, and the higher price is around 7800 yuan/ton. The market for n-propanol in Nanjing is relatively stable. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is relatively quiet, and downstream users continue to focus on just in demand procurement. According to the n-propanol data analyst at the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In the first half of 2023, the market price of hydrofluoric acid significantly decreased. At the beginning of the year, the price was 12500 yuan/ton, and at the middle of the year, the price was 9657.14 yuan/ton. The decline in the first half of the year was 22.74%. In the first half of the year, the market price of hydrofluoric acid decreased more or less, and from March to April, the price of hydrofluoric acid increased, while prices in other months decreased to varying degrees.

The trend of the hydrofluoric acid market in the first half of the year is mainly divided into three stages: the rapid decline in domestic hydrofluoric acid prices from January to February, the slight recovery in the hydrofluoric acid market from March to April, and the further decline in hydrofluoric acid prices from May to June:

The domestic price of hydrofluoric acid rapidly declined from January to February. At this stage, the price of hydrofluoric acid has dropped from 12500 yuan/ton to 9828.57 yuan/ton, with a decrease of up to 21.37%. The main influencing factor is the sharp supply-demand contradiction. At this stage, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is very sufficient, even if some units in the north stop, the demand for downstream refrigerants is very low due to the holiday around the Spring Festival, resulting in poor delivery of hydrofluoric acid, frequent inventory accumulation by manufacturers, and a significant decrease in hydrofluoric acid prices. On the other hand, the price trend of raw material fluorite at this stage has declined, and the cost support has declined, which is also a major bearish factor in the hydrofluoric acid market. In addition, the refrigerant industry is sluggish, procurement demand is poor, and multiple bearish factors are combined, resulting in a significant decline in the hydrofluoric acid market from January to February.

The hydrofluoric acid market slightly rebounded from March to April. At this stage, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has slightly increased, with prices rising from 9828.57 yuan/ton to 10357.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.38%. On the one hand, the rise in raw material fluorite prices is driving the situation. At this stage, due to environmental requirements and mining accidents, the domestic spot supply of fluorite is very tight, and the price trend of fluorite is rising. On the other hand, the refrigerant market is on the rise. March April is the peak period for the refrigerant industry to stock up, and the demand for upstream hydrofluoric acid procurement has increased. Affected by the positive support from upstream and downstream, the hydrofluoric acid market has rebounded.

The price of hydrofluoric acid fell again from May to June. Due to weaker demand, the price of hydrofluoric acid has declined again, with the market price dropping from 10357.14 yuan/ton to 9657.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.76%. At this stage, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is still sufficient, and manufacturers’ orders for hydrofluoric acid are weak. However, the price of raw fluorite is at a high level, and the downstream refrigerant season is not strong. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is not good, resulting in severe losses for hydrofluoric acid production enterprises. Some enterprises choose to stop and respond due to the impact of losses. Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid starts at around 60%, and some enterprises have increased inventory. Negative factors have affected the decline of the hydrofluoric acid market.

From the perspective of the fluorine chemical industry chain, due to safety, environmental protection and other reasons, upstream mining of fluorite is still tight, and backward mines will continue to be phased out. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, which supports the fluorite market price, and the decrease in fluorite is relatively small. However, as the industry with the largest proportion of downstream applications in the fluorine chemical industry, refrigerant market prices have been sluggish. In the first half of the year, there was a rapid drop in production during the peak season, which caused many concerns and concerns in the market. Under the combined influence of high raw materials and poor demand, hydrofluoric acid enterprises have been struggling to survive, and most of them have suffered losses.

In the short term, the market for raw material fluorite has slightly declined, and with the end of the peak season in the downstream refrigerant industry, refrigerant production has shown a downward trend. Regarding the decrease in hydrofluoric acid procurement, high inventory of hydrofluoric acid, resonance between high raw material demand and poor demand, Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the recovery of the hydrofluoric acid market is hopeless in the short term. As the weather cools down in the fourth quarter, the price of raw material fluorite will increase, and cost support will be more obvious at that time, The hydrofluoric acid market may experience an increase in the fourth quarter.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in early July, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China slightly fluctuated and decreased. On the first day, the market reported around 14371 yuan/ton, and on the 10th, it reported around 14285 yuan/ton, a decrease of only 0.6%. Recently, the price of acrylic acid has increased, and some enterprises of polyacrylamide have seen some price increases. Based on the overall market supply situation, some enterprises have reduced their production capacity due to the impact of high temperatures. However, the current market supply is sufficient, mainly due to average downstream demand and weak supply and demand, and the mainstream market continues to be weak.

As shown in the figure, in the early third quarter of 2023, China’s polyacrylamide market remained stable with a slight decline, which was amplified compared to the decline in June.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of acrylonitrile in early July increased slightly by 2.38% from 7887 yuan/ton to 8075 yuan/ton. After a slight increase in the raw material propylene market, it slightly declined, and downstream consumers showed resistance to high market prices. In order to stimulate sales, market prices shifted from rising to falling, which weakened their support for the cost of acrylonitrile; Multiple downstream industries of acrylonitrile face weak demand support in the short term, which is difficult to improve; In addition, the supply side is still relatively loose, and the acrylonitrile market is mainly volatile and consolidation in the short term.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market slightly increased in early July, from 6012 yuan/ton to 6175 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7%. Recently, the market price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support has weakened. With the support of some equipment maintenance and supply constraints, acrylic acid companies have steadily increased their quotations, and downstream inquiries have increased their enthusiasm. However, the purchasing mentality is still cautious, and the main focus is on following up in an appropriate amount. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will undergo mild consolidation and operation in the short term, and more market news guidance is needed.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market rose first and then slightly in early July. Among them, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China on the 1st was 4296 yuan/ton, and on the 10th it was 4066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.35% in ten days.

Future forecast: There will be a slight increase in raw material prices in the near future, while the fuel market is relatively weak, and the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials will rise to a certain extent. However, due to the abundant supply of goods in the market and the continued low prosperity of the water treatment industry, downstream demand is poor, resulting in poor market transactions; High temperatures have a certain impact on factory operations, but with production and inventory, market supply is normal. Regarding the future market, analysis suggests that polyacrylamide will continue its stable or slightly fluctuating trend.

Aluminium fluoride prices fell this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 10, the quotation of Aluminium fluoride in China was 9825 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the price of Aluminium fluoride of 9900 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of raw materials fell in shock, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell. In July, the price of Aluminium fluoride fell in shock.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 10th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9585.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74% compared to the price of 9657.14 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. In July, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell in shock, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Fluctuation and decline in fluorite prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 10th, the price of fluorite was 3062.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76% compared to July 1st, which was 3117.50 yuan/ton. In July, the price of fluorite fluctuated and fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

The analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that: in July, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fell in shock, the cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased. In the future, the cost will fall, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride will increase. It is expected that the price of Aluminium fluoride will fall in the future.