On August 30th, the crude benzene commodity index was 108.82, a decrease of 0.82 points from yesterday, a decrease of 17.46% from the cycle’s highest point of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and an increase of 256.32% from the lowest point of 30.54 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in August 2023, the crude benzene market first rose and then fell. The domestic factory price of crude benzene was 6593.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6893.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.55%.
In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations. Overall, in the future, there is a general consensus in the basic market that both supply and demand in the energy sector will weaken simultaneously, leading to an intensification of the supply-demand game in the oil market and a rebalancing of supply and demand. This will continue to put pressure on oil prices. In the short term, the driving force for the oil market to continue to rise is limited. Under the hedging of weak demand expectations and tight supply, the high probability range is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.
The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has shown a positive trend in recent times. After entering July, the pure benzene market has been on the rise for 6 consecutive weeks, and in late August, it has been on a narrow decline for 2 consecutive weeks.
The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been raised three times and lowered once in this cycle, with a cumulative increase of 350 yuan/ton within the month. Currently, it is priced at 7750 yuan/ton.
Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7730 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7743 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7730 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton.
In terms of industrial chain: In the first half of the month, the pure benzene market continued to rise, boosted by the rise of crude oil and pure benzene in the external market. The pure benzene market in East China continued to rise, and the market supply was tight. In the first half of the month, the factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 400 yuan/ton twice, supported by multiple positive factors, and the price of pure benzene continued to rise. In the first half of the month, the price of hydrogenated benzene market continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of 350 to 400 yuan/ton. In the second half of August, the crude oil market was volatile, and the external market of pure benzene fell, dragging down the mentality of the pure benzene market. The market trend was somewhat volatile. On August 31, the bidding price of Sinopec pure benzene was lowered by 100 yuan/ton to 7750 yuan/ton.
The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenation benzene market has seen both positive and negative trends. In May, the market has been declining for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it has been rising for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenation benzene market has been rising for 7 consecutive weeks since entering July.
Although crude benzene belongs to coal chemical commodities, the downstream commodity of crude benzene, hydrogenated benzene, as a substitute for pure benzene, has a price trend that closely follows the fluctuations in the pure benzene market. Therefore, the crude benzene market is mainly affected by the pure benzene industry chain. In August, the pure benzene market experienced a high and fluctuating trend in the first half of the month, while crude benzene experienced an upward trend in the first half of the month due to the impact of the industrial chain, and a fluctuating downward trend in the second half. In terms of supply, in August, coking enterprises saw a steady increase in operating rates due to the continuous decline in raw material coking coal prices, and crude benzene supply was relatively loose. In terms of demand, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has slightly declined this month, but there is still a strong demand for support for crude benzene. However, due to the impact of corporate profits, the pressure on prices is strong, and market expectations are weak. In the future, the current trend of crude oil is fluctuating, with insufficient guidance for the market. The supply and demand side of crude benzene is showing bearish factors. In the future, we expect the crude benzene market to operate weakly, with some room for decline. But stocking up before the end of September has boosted prices, and there is room for improvement.