1、 Price data
According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 11th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8126.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to September 1st at 8131.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was around 8100 yuan/ton.
As of September 11th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 8019.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% compared to September 1st at 7959.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 8000 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Recently, the market for local refined naphtha has been volatile, with the rise of international crude oil driving the domestic naphtha market. Refineries are actively shipping, but there is a lack of obvious positive news at the end. Refineries have limited upward momentum, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The local refined naphtha market is mixed.
Upstream: The international crude oil market has recently risen. OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices.
Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the international crude oil price has been operating at a high level recently, with the cost of toluene rising and the factory price of enterprises rising. The external price of mixed xylene has slightly increased, and domestic enterprises have a tight supply. In addition, downstream demand support has led to a strong performance in the xylene market. In terms of PX, the domestic supply of xylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%, and spot supply is relatively normal.
3、 Future Market Forecast
Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the recent rise in international crude oil has boosted the domestic naphtha market, but the domestic naphtha market lacks significant substantial benefits at the end, leading to weak market guidance and strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Refineries are actively shipping, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be mainly volatile and organized in the near future.