According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market will fluctuate and rise in November 2025. From November 1st to 28th, the domestic toluene market price rose from 5150 yuan/ton to 5330 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.5% during the period.

In the first ten days, the domestic toluene market showed a fluctuating upward trend, with an overall stable to strong rhythm. The ex factory prices of the main refineries in Shandong region have generally increased, providing strong support for the market; The markets in East and South China have followed suit, with prices slightly rising and a lively atmosphere for market negotiations, resulting in good trading order. The demand side has shown steady performance, with downstream chemical and oil blending industries mainly focusing on essential needs for procurement, effectively absorbing upstream price fluctuations, and jointly promoting market growth.
Late November: In the second half of November, the domestic toluene market continued to fluctuate and rise, showing an overall stable to strong operating pattern. At the core driving level, due to the favorable transmission of high crude oil prices, the confidence of participants in the spot market has been significantly boosted, and the main refineries have generally raised their ex factory prices, providing strong support for the market; The demand side has shown steady performance, while the downstream chemical and oil blending industries maintain a pace of on-demand procurement, effectively absorbing upstream price fluctuations. The prices in East and South China have slightly increased, and the market supply and demand are smoothly connected. The negotiation atmosphere is still acceptable, further consolidating the overall upward trend of the market.
Cost wise: International crude oil prices have shown a slight downward trend in this cycle, with multiple negative factors suppressing the core: OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase, and market concerns about long-term oversupply continue to ferment; The regional situation has eased, and the support of geopolitical risks for oil prices has weakened; At the same time, the demand for crude oil in the United States has declined, and its tariff issues have further dragged down the global economic trend and expectations of crude oil demand. Under the resonance of multiple pressures, international oil prices have slightly declined. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.65 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February is $62.54 per barrel.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the domestic market price of xylene has temporarily stabilized. The execution price of Sinopec Sales Company has increased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, and is now reported at 6850 yuan/ton. The four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China will uniformly implement this price; The main facilities of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, and the sales of products are normal. The current price has risen by 150 yuan/ton compared to October 31st, and the overall domestic market is showing a stable upward trend.
In terms of international markets: As of November 27th, the closing price range for xylene in the Asian region is between $801-803/ton (FOB Korea) and $826-828/ton (CFR China), a decrease of $9/ton from October 30th. The performance in the international market is slightly weaker than that in the domestic market.

Market forecast: The domestic toluene market is expected to remain stable in the near future, driven by the trend of crude oil and the supply-demand pattern. The international crude oil market is expected to weaken slightly, which will have a certain impact on the sentiment of the spot market. The demand side continues the characteristics of rigid demand, and downstream enterprises often replenish their inventory according to actual production needs, without any significant increase or decrease in inventory. Overall, the current performance of the toluene market is stable, and it is expected to maintain a stable to weak trend in the short term due to the transmission effect of the short-term decline in crude oil.