1、 Price trend
As of August 31, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 16333.33 yuan / ton, up 1.03% compared with the beginning of the month, 2% lower than the same period last year, and the maximum amplitude of this month was 3.09%
As of August 31, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 16066.67 yuan / ton, down 6.94% from the beginning of the month and 41.22% compared with the same period last year, according to the monitoring of bulk data of the business agency. The maximum amplitude of this month is 6.95%
2、 Market analysis
In August, the situation of refrigerants was difficult. Due to the continuous weak demand and shortage of raw materials, the price of refrigerants went down and the focus was low. This month, the air conditioning industry began to enter the off-season, the production of production enterprises decreased sharply, the demand for refrigerants was scarce, and the turnover was weak. At the same time, there was a lot of rain in this month, and the after-sales market showed a general performance with poor demand. Moreover, the export recovery was slow, and the export orders decreased year on year, so the demand side was difficult to boost the market. The market price of fluorite and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end declined, and the chloroform market was running strongly, which weakened the support for refrigerants. On the whole, the cost side and demand side of refrigerant are weak, the start-up of refrigerant manufacturers is not high, and the price is likely to continue to fall.
R22, the price of refrigerant R22 rose first and then fell in August, with a slight increase of 1.03% in the whole month. The cost side of chloroform industry support is OK, but the demand follow-up is not enough, the demand side air conditioning and after-sales market performance is poor. Although R22 has good quota support and manufacturers support the price, but the shipment is under pressure, and the enterprise price has fallen. After the middle of this month, R22 has a steady downward trend, and some enterprises’ prices are still running stably. However, most of the actual transactions yield profits, and the trading center begins to move downward. As of August 31, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in R22 market were 15500-16500 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was about 15000-15500 yuan / ton.
R134a, the price of refrigerant R134a fell to the bottom in August, with a sharp drop of 6.95% in the whole month. On the cost side, hydrofluoric acid support is weakened, and the peak stock season of automobile industry has passed. The purchase of refrigerants has been sharply reduced. There are few new orders, and the export recovery is slow. Enterprises are under pressure to ship. Prices have dropped sharply. Some of them have the phenomenon of cost inversion. At the same time, there are plans for new production capacity to enter the market. At that time, the contradiction between supply and demand will intensify, and the focus of R134a will continue to move down. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of August 25, the price of the mainstream manufacturers in the refrigerant R134a market is about 15000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is about 14500-15000 yuan / ton, and the price is down.
Enterprise products up and down from August 31 to August 1
Zhejiang Juhua R22 16000 yuan / ton 15500 yuan / ton – 500 yuan
Zhejiang Juhua R134a 14700 yuan / ton 15000 yuan / ton – 300 yuan
Shandong Dongyue R22 16500 yuan / ton 16500 yuan / ton
Shandong Dongyue R134a 15000 yuan / ton 17000 yuan / ton – 2000 yuan
Jiuzhou chemical R22 15500 yuan / ton 15800 yuan / ton – 300 yuan
Jiuzhou chemical R134a 15500 yuan / ton 16500 yuan / ton – 1000 yuan
Longxun trade R22 15000 yuan / ton 15500 yuan / ton – 500 yuan
Longxun trade R134a 15500 yuan / ton 15500 yuan / ton
Daily BOLUO R22 16000 yuan / ton 16000 yuan / ton
Daily Polo R134a 16000 yuan / ton 16000 yuan / ton
Shanghai lengqi R22 15500-16000 yuan / ton 15500-16000 yuan / ton
Blue planet R134a 18000 yuan / ton 18000 yuan / ton
The price trend of fluorite in the upstream and domestic fluorite market fluctuated. Recently, some manufacturers reported that the goods were not in good condition, the downstream demand was not improved, and the fluorite price changed little. Domestic fluorite manufacturers have been operating stably, the on-site mines and flotation devices have been operating normally, and the fluorite in the yard is not well stocked, and the market price of fluorite is slightly lower. The market price of fluorite may decrease slightly in the short term.
As for hydrofluoric acid, on August 31, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 8000-8500 yuan / T, and the ex factory price of domestic manufacturers dropped slightly. The domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers had a general operating rate, and the supply of goods on site was normal. Affected by the decline of fluorite price, however, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was not good, and the on-site procurement was mainly based on demand, and the on-site price was expected to decline in the future.
Trichloromethane: at present, the market of chloroform in Shandong Province is at a high level, and the overall operation of enterprises has reached a high level, and the market supply is expected to continue to increase. Due to the high price and flat demand in the downstream market, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the industry, and some of the shippers have a certain bearish mentality. At present, the quoted price of Shandong is about 1880-1910 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 2650 yuan / ton. It is expected to maintain stable operation in a short period of time, and it is necessary to pay attention to the inventory situation of enterprises.
3、 Future forecast
According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, the demand in August was poor and the refrigerant market was dismal. R22 was supported by quota, but the actual transaction atmosphere was not good, and the price was expected to fluctuate slightly. However, the inventory of R134a was on the high side, and new capacity was put into the market, and the price was expected to continue to decline. On the whole, it is difficult for the market of refrigerants to improve significantly. As September is about to enter, it is hard to find any good profits in the market. It is expected that refrigerants will continue to be weak, so it is hard to be optimistic.