price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market first rose and then fell in October. The spot prices of most brands have fluctuated, and by the end of the month, they have basically returned to the price level at the beginning of the month. As of October 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14166.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.07% compared to early October.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In the first half of October, domestic PC aggregation enterprises experienced large and stable loads with small fluctuations, and maintenance releases were concentrated in the second half of the month. The industry’s operating rate has been reduced by 4% to 77%, with an average weekly output of around 65000 tons, a decrease from the beginning of the month. In terms of inventory, it remains strong, but the improvement in the pattern of abundant PC supply is limited. Overall, the PC supply side has strengthened its support for PC.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the bisphenol A market significantly declined in October. Upstream phenol fell and then consolidated, while acetone fell sharply and entered a recovery market, which is difficult to say for the bisphenol A market. In addition, the continuous weakness of bisphenol A consumption has led to a rapid decline in spot prices due to multiple factors. Although the domestic market atmosphere remained sluggish in the latter half of the year, spot prices fell to a low level, coupled with relatively controllable inventory, leading to increased price manipulation by enterprises and businesses, forming a bottoming force. It is expected that the price of bisphenol A will remain stable in the future, but the support for PC costs will still be weak.
On the demand side: October is still in the traditional peak season for PC, but the downstream factory load of the “Golden Ten” this year is not ideal, inventory digestion is slow, and stocking remains at a weak level of rigid demand. Although maintenance has stimulated some brands to rise, the improvement in market trading activity is limited. At the same time, external news indicates that the export market is volatile, and the overseas shipment of PC terminal products is under pressure and weakening. In the second half of the month, merchants tend to focus on selling goods to recoup funds, resulting in a concentration of profit taking orders and a stagnation and decline in the price center. Buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and once the demand for filling gaps is met, the circulation speed of market goods slows down again. Overall, the demand side lacks support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
After the domestic PC market rose in October, it gave up. The upstream bisphenol A market plummeted and stopped falling at the end of the month, with no improvement in cost support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants will decrease in the second half of the year, and the market trading situation will remain weak. There is a game of supply and demand in the market, and it is expected that the PC market will continue to consolidate in the short term.