According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 3480 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 48.72%. On July 16, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 179.47, which was flat compared with yesterday and set a new record in the cycle. It was 131.96% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now).

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price remained at a high level. The start-up of domestic ammonium nitrate plants was general, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the plant was normal. Some manufacturers reported that the price of upstream coal raw materials was at a high level, the cost increased significantly, and the manufacturer’s price reached a historical high level. Recently, the supply of goods in the plant was tight, and the transportation was normal, so the market price of ammonium nitrate remained at a high level. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the prices of some manufacturers are at a historical high. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 3500-3600 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 4300-4400 yuan / ton.

The domestic price of concentrated nitric acid rose this week, with the weekend price of 2450 yuan / ton, 2.08% higher than the price of 2400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Anhui Jinhe quoted 2650 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2500 yuan / ton. The price of Xinghua is 2350 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, the delivery of goods in the yard is general, the price trend of nitric acid in the yard is rising, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate in the market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, with the weekend price of 4516.67 yuan / ton, up 1.5% from 4450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant in the yard was normal, the spot supply in the yard was normal, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market rose. In terms of fundamentals, the price of liquid ammonia rose in Shandong. Due to the decline of inventory pressure, the operating rate of manufacturers remained at a reasonable level, and there was a certain price difference with other regions in China, the price of liquid ammonia decreased slightly. The amount of ammonia in Shandong Province is basically in the balance between supply and demand, which still supports the price. In the lower reaches, the agricultural fertilizer use has increased, the demand in the lower reaches is general, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate remains high.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is normal. In addition, the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal. The demand for calcium ammonium nitrate has increased. In addition, the price trend of raw material market continues to rise, and the price of coal market remains high. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is general, and the rising cost has a certain positive impact, Business community ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the late market price of ammonium nitrate or will maintain a high level.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 13, China imported 28.392 million tons of coal in June 2021, an increase of 3.106 million tons or 12.28% compared with 25.286 million tons in the same period last year. Compared with 21.04 million tons in May, it increased by 7.352 million tons or 34.94%. In June, coal imports amounted to US $2612.1 million, up 54.64% year on year and 44.31% month on month. According to this calculation, the import unit price is 92 US dollars / ton, up 25.2 US dollars / ton year-on-year and 5.97 US dollars / ton month on month.

From January to June 2021, China imported 139.561 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%, 5.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous may; The total import value was US $11.066 billion, down 10.7% year on year.

O-benzene market strong and stable

According to the data monitoring of business association, the settlement price of o-benzene in July was 6200 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with that in June. As of July 13, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 6200.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene of 6200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. However, the upstream and downstream market of the industrial chain rose, and the market of o-benzene recovered.

Raw material prices rebound

According to the data detection of business news agency, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and rose in July, the price of raw materials in the upstream of o-benzene rose, the market of the upstream industry chain of o-benzene recovered, and the rising power of o-benzene market increased.

Lower market rebounds

According to the data test of business association, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded in July, and the market of phthalic anhydride recovered and rose. The downstream market of o-benzene rebounded, the demand for o-benzene rose, the demand for o-benzene was strong, and the driving force for o-benzene to rise increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business news agency, believes that the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride in the upstream and downstream of the o-xylene industry chain rose in July, the o-xylene industry chain rose, and the o-xylene market recovered in July. In the future, the rising power of o-benzene increased. However, due to the limited increase of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride, the rising power of o-benzene is limited, and the rising space of o-benzene is limited. Generally speaking, the market of o-benzene will pick up in the future, and the price of o-benzene will be strong and stable.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (July 12): 2720.00 yuan / ton

On July 12, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with the quotation on July 9, with a decrease of 1.12%, and a year-on-year increase of 64.85%. The price of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the agricultural demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the urea plant maintenance is still the same, the start-up recovery is slow, the daily output is still less than 160000 tons, the supply side is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International: it is said that India will issue a new round of import bidding this month, which will boost the domestic market mentality. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is tight.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2750 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of caustic soda went up. The average price of Shandong market was 527.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 532.5 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price increased by 0.95% and 3.9% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on July 8 was 76.62, up 0.72 points from yesterday, down 62.96% from 206.87 points (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 17.68% from 65.11 points, the lowest point on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of caustic soda was adjusted. The price of caustic soda in Shandong has been stable for the time being, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 520-620 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is slightly better than before. Now the caustic soda manufacturers adjust their prices according to their own conditions. It is comprehensively estimated that the caustic soda will be mainly operated in a narrow range in the future. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda mainly fluctuates in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 530-650 yuan / ton, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to be consolidated in the future.

Downstream: due to the demand of downstream alumina for caustic soda inventory, caustic soda manufacturers are mainly active in shipping, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable. There is a good demand for caustic soda. At the present stage, the price of caustic soda is running with consolidation.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 26th week of 2021 (6.28-7.2), there were 2 kinds of commodities that rose, 1 kind of commodities that fell, and 2 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities rising were: Light Soda (1.95%), PVC (0.70%); The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 0.36%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.46%.

Business community analysts believe that in the near future, Shandong has been mainly operating in a narrow range, and the demand for downstream alumina is acceptable. Manufacturers in other regions adjust their quotations according to their own conditions. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to be consolidated and operated in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data of the commodity list of the business society, the market of formaldehyde in Shandong has recently fallen. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1367.50 yuan / ton on the 6th, and 1357.50 yuan / ton on the 7th, down 0.73%. The current price is up 4.42% month on month, and the current price is up 57.24% year on year.

Recently, the domestic market price of formaldehyde has fallen. As of July 7, the mainstream market price in eastern Shandong is 1330-1400 yuan / ton. Recently, the formaldehyde Market Trading atmosphere is general, the transaction situation is not satisfactory, formaldehyde market showed a downward trend.

Upstream methanol situation: in the methanol market of southern Shandong, part of the price was negotiated to 2490-2500 yuan / ton in cash. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2450-2490 yuan / ton and sent them to cash exchange. The logistics goods offer price is not available for the time being. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals, and the operators wait and see. The main turnover of methanol market in central Shandong is 2320-2340 yuan / ton, which is delivered to cash. The turnover is light and the negotiation is limited. The transaction price of methanol market in North Central Shandong Province is 2300-2320 yuan / ton, which is sent to spot exchange, and some of them are in wait-and-see mood. Methanol market shock consolidation, the overall trading atmosphere is light. Poor support for formaldehyde.

At present, due to the influence of environmental protection control, the plate factories in Shandong Province have a general starting situation, poor demand and limited purchasing capacity. At present, the atmosphere of Shandong formaldehyde trading market is relatively cold, the transaction is not good, the formaldehyde manufacturers are difficult to ship, and the focus of formaldehyde market is constantly moving down.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol market is weak, and the downstream plate factory starts to tighten, so the demand is not good. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of business society expect that the formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall in the near future.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of June 30, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2766.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that on June 1, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.26% in the three-month cycle. In July, the formic acid market rose. As of July 6, the average price quoted by enterprises was 3000 yuan / ton, up 1.12% compared with the previous trading day.

In June, the domestic formic acid market remained stable as a whole. In the first half of June, the price quoted by the shippers was stable at a high level, and the downstream just needed to buy, so the market trading atmosphere was acceptable. In late June, the trend of raw materials was strong, the shipment of enterprises was stable, and the market transaction was orderly. Under the stable quotation of main factories, the domestic formic acid market continued to be stable in the whole month. In July, the market performance was fair, and the market rose slightly.

As of July 5, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 527.50, up 1.93% compared with July 1 (517.50); On July 5, the domestic liquid ammonia market was stable, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong did not change much. Today, the amount of ammonia in this area is moderate, and the enterprises are shipping normally. At present, the inventory is normal, and the quotations of Shandong large factories are generally stable; The upstream sulfuric acid market rose on July 5 in Shandong Province, and the upstream sulfur market rose slightly in the near future. Some sulfuric acid manufacturers were under started, and the load was reduced. The downstream bromine market gradually rose, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was good; The reference price of upstream methanol was 2555.00 on July 5, which was the same as that on July 1.

Business community formic acid analysts believe that at present, the raw material price is relatively strong, the cost support is strong, and the market transaction is active. It is expected that the formic acid market will be mainly strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (July 5): 2760.00 yuan / ton

On July 5, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong fell by 40 yuan / ton, or 1.43%, compared with the quotation on July 2. The upper reaches of coal prices recently high consolidation, cost support to strengthen. From the aspect of demand, the demand of agriculture in different areas has been cooling down, and the demand of agriculture has been decreasing; The price of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches rose, and the rubber sheet factories and melamine enterprises started to work fairly well, most of which were used as soon as they were mined. In terms of supply, the daily output of urea plants is still lower than that of the same period last year, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also kept at a low position. Affected by the shortage of coal, some areas begin to reduce production. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is tight.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will drop slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2750 yuan / ton.

Acetic anhydride prices stabilize

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of acetic anhydride rose continuously in June, and stabilized in the last ten days. As of June 30, the price of acetic anhydride was 12166.67 yuan / ton, up by 1.96% compared with the price of 11933.33 yuan / ton on June 1. In June, the market of acetic anhydride was stable and fell.

Acetic acid prices peaked and fell

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid rose first and then fell in June, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Methanol prices fell in June

It can be seen from methanol price trend chart that methanol price rebounded after falling in June, acetic anhydride cost fell, acetic anhydride falling pressure increased, and acetic anhydride price fell in the future.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, believes that acetic acid price fluctuated and rose in early June, methanol price fell sharply, and acetic anhydride cost fluctuated and rose in early June; The price of acetic acid dropped sharply in the last ten days, the price of methanol fluctuated and stabilized, the cost of acetic anhydride fell in the last ten days, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride price increased. Generally speaking, the power of acetic anhydride market in the first ten days is greater, the price of acetic anhydride rises in shock, the cost of acetic anhydride drops in the second ten days, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride market increases. The market is expected to fall in July.

With the change of purchasing and marketing mentality, the decline of BDO market in June slowed down. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 19975 yuan / ton on June 1, and 17485 yuan / ton on June 30. The price fell by 12.47% in the month, and the decline slowed down, with a year-on-year price increase of 120.21%. According to the latest price, the mainstream negotiation of bulk water supply in East China is 17500-18000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation of bulk water supply in South China is 17500-18000 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of business community, in the list of commodity price rise and fall in June 2021, there were 53 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 29 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 30.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were potassium sulfate (32.07%), dimethyl carbonate (21.18%) and butadiene (18.68%). A total of 35 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 13 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three products were yellow phosphorus (- 22.60%), epoxy resin (- 13.88%) and acetone (- 12.78%). The average rise and fall of this month was 2.53%.

This month, the domestic BDO market was affected by the change in the purchasing and marketing mentality of the industry. The decline continued in the first half of the month, then turned sharply in the second half of the month, and rebounded to the bottom and continued to rise. In the first and middle of this month, in addition to the temporary shutdown of Xinjiang Meike phase II to replace the catalyst, a number of maintenance units were restarted and stabilized in May, and the market supply was abundant. Traders’ fear of falling is aggravating, and the pace of shipment is speeding up.

Since March 2021, the domestic BDO spot market has “fallen to the altar”, and the price has “never recovered”. The BDO market in the first half of 2021 presents a completely different trend from that in previous years, with ups and downs, complicated and confusing.

In terms of devices, Xinjiang Tianye’s 3 + 60000 ton device produced products in the first ten days of June and expanded its capacity, while the second 60000 ton device has not been restarted yet. The Tunhe installation in Lanshan, Xinjiang, is now in stable operation and is scheduled to be overhauled for one month on July 25. Xinye plant in Xinjiang is in full load operation and scheduled to be overhauled for 20 days on July 25. Dongyuan science and technology plant in Inner Mongolia has been running stably, and the catalyst is planned to be replaced from July 20 to 30. The start-up of Yanchang oil plant in Shaanxi Province is unstable, and the current load is 30-40%. Henan Kaixiang plant was restarted on June 11 and operated stably.

On the upstream side, the trend of methanol market in the mainland and coastal areas was slightly different in June. The mainland market fell first and then rose, while the coastal market basically followed the trend of futures. In June, the market price of calcium carbide rose before and then stabilized, with an increase of 600 yuan / ton. So far, the mainstream ex factory price in Wuhai area is 4500-4600 yuan / ton. Raw materials have a positive impact on BDO market.

On the downstream side, the PBAT industry is constrained by cost pressure and weak demand, the new production capacity is put into operation slowly, the overall start-up of other downstream industries has little change, and there is no obvious demand increment, so the contract procurement is maintained. Because the terminal’s ability to accept high price raw materials is weak, and the cost transfer is hindered, many downstream industries, such as PTMEG, PBT, PBAT, etc., follow the decline of raw materials to reduce their prices. Under the heavy pressure of cost, the prices of raw materials are seriously depressed.

In July, many units were shut down for maintenance or catalyst replacement, and the supply decreased. Moreover, the factory controlled the pace of shipment, supported the market, mainly delivered to terminal customers, and the supply of spot goods was tight. Traders were still reluctant to sell, and the quotation continued to explore. However, there are still conflicts with high prices in the downstream, and most of them are small orders. BDO analysts of business news agency expect that the domestic BDO market will bottom out and rebound in July, with a narrow upward trend.