This week (4.17-4.24), the nitrile rubber market slightly rose. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of April 24th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% from last Monday’s 15775 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene rebounded, while the price of acrylonitrile slightly decreased, and the overall cost of nitrile rubber strengthened; Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are still relatively flat. Buna-N rubber merchants are less willing to offer at a low price. In addition, the factory price of Buna-N rubber enterprises has temporarily stabilized recently, and the price of Buna-N market has rebounded slightly. At present, the mainstream market price for Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China is 15400-15600 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Nandi Nitrile 1052 is 17400~17600 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Sibul nitrile 3365 is 14400~14600 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported at 15200~15400 yuan/ton.

This week (4.17-4.24), the price of raw material butadiene rebounded, while the price of acrylonitrile slightly decreased, and the overall cost of nitrile rubber strengthened. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of April 24th, the price of butadiene was 8784 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.77% from last Monday’s 8384 yuan/ton; As of April 24th, the price of acrylonitrile decreased by 0.52% from last Monday’s 9575 yuan/ton at 9525 yuan/ton.

At present, the supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable. But there are maintenance plans for devices such as Lanhua in the later part of the second quarter.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is loose, coupled with the insignificant increase in downstream inquiries, the nitrile rubber industry chain is currently in a weak situation; In the later stage, nitrile rubber enterprises have maintenance plans in the second quarter, and with the current rebound in raw material prices and gradually supporting cost, the demand for nitrile rubber may be favorable in the later stage. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will be weak and consolidation in the short term, and the price of nitrile rubber in the second quarter may rise slightly in the medium to long term.

This week, the lead market (4.14-4.21) rose first and then fell. The average price in the domestic market was 15230 yuan/ton over the weekend and 15275 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 0.3%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated after the holiday.

In the futures market, lead prices rose first and then fell this week. After the completion of delivery of the Shanghai Lead 2304 contract this week, the inventory of the previous exchange was significantly reduced by 12102 tons. The low inventory drove the Shanghai Lead higher, reaching a maximum of nearly 15500 yuan/ton. However, due to the drag of the off-season of fundamentals, the Shanghai lead has significant upward resistance and fell back on Friday. Fundamentally speaking, the upstream and downstream of lead are still in a seasonal off-season, with relatively light market trading and average actual transaction performance. As the weather warms up, downstream storage companies still have expectations of further lowering their operating rates, resulting in weaker market expectations for the future. In the future market, the main trend remains weak and volatile, with limited market volatility in the off-season under the dual weak supply and demand pattern.

On April 21, 2023, London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory decreased by 50 tons from 32200 tons

On April 22, the base metal index stood at 1245 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.96% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 93.93% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2023 (4.10-4.14), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (25.38%), silver (4.82%), and nickel (4.53%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decrease, and 5 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products in the decline were neodymium oxide (-8.26%), praseodymium oxide (-7.48%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-6.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.27%.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province dropped from 9228.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9142.86 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.93%. Weekend prices have decreased by 24.85% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 16th, the isooctanol commodity index was 67.23, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 51.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 91.27% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support increases, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the market quotations of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong Province have slightly decreased this week: Lihuayi isooctanol had a weekend market price of 9100 yuan/ton, and compared to the beginning of the week, the quotations were temporarily stable; The weekend market price of isooctanol of Hualu Hengsheng was 9100 yuan/ton, which was 200 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; The weekend quotation for Luxi isooctanol distributed by Shandong Jinsheng Run was 9200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to normal.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 7156.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7286.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.82%. Weekend prices have decreased by 13.68% compared to the same period last year. The price of upstream raw materials market rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP dropped from 9950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9934.17 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.16%. Weekend prices have decreased by 16.08% compared to the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Future prospects

In late April, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream propylene market slightly increased, with increased cost support. However, the downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is weak. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12850 yuan/ton on April 10, and the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12850 yuan/ton on April 14. Caprolactam prices are stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The caprolactam market price was smooth this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, and cost support is good. At present, the supply and demand of caprolactam market is stable, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Downstream on-demand procurement is the main focus, and the rise of the PA6 market is temporarily postponed. As of April 14, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng had raised the price of caprolactam liquid to 13000 yuan/ton, accepted it to East China, and the manufacturer’s plant capacity was 300000 tons/year. The settlement price of Sinopec high-end caprolactam is 13300 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product. It will be accepted and picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased this week. The port continues to go to the warehouse, and downstream demand for raw materials is relatively stable, supporting price increases. The inventory of Shandong Refinery is low, and the quoted price is high, causing the focus of transaction to shift upwards. On Friday (April 14th), the price of pure benzene was between 7403-7750 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67% compared to last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 7450 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has been firm recently, and the cost side has certain support. But downstream demand has decreased, with more low-priced procurement being the main focus. It is expected that caprolactam market price will continue to consolidate in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price trend of p-xylene increased in March. As of the end of the month, the domestic factory price of p-xylene was 8800 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.53% compared to the initial price of 8500 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.38%.

In March, the supply of xylene slightly decreased, and the domestic PX operating rate was around 60%. Due to the maintenance of some xylene plants in March, the price trend of xylene in China increased. In March, the international crude oil price fluctuated, while the PX outer market price rose. As of the 30th, the closing prices in Asia were 1077-1079 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1102-1104 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has slightly declined. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 60%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has slightly declined, and the domestic xylene market has been affected by the rise in external prices.

In March, international crude oil prices fell first and then rose, with an overall decline of 3.48%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $74.37 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $78.60 per barrel. In early March, macroeconomic data was strong, and crude oil prices rose. The collapse of the US Silicon Valley Bank in mid March, superimposed on the US inflation report data is not optimistic, triggered the market’s concern about financial risks. In addition, Credit Suisse’s anxiety hit the financial market, putting pressure on the stock market, crude oil and other risk assets, superimposed on the negative impact of the US crude oil inventory growth exceeding expectations and the reduction of China’s crude oil imports, and then dragged down the crude oil price. In the latter half of the year, Iraq stopped exporting crude oil from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, while the risk impact on the European and American banking industry weakened, and supply and demand concerns eased, driving up oil prices. China’s demand for crude oil became strong, further strengthening market bullish expectations. On the whole, the price of crude oil market declined, and the increase of paraxylene price was limited.

In March, the domestic PTA spot market saw a significant increase, with an average price of 6360 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the end of the month, an increase of 13.59% compared to the beginning of the month. Recently, some PTA devices have been undergoing maintenance, and the operating rate has dropped to below 75%. PTA supply has slightly decreased, and the downstream polyester load has remained at a high level of over 83%. PTA continues to destock. Downstream yarn mills and weaving factories have gradually resumed construction, and downstream demand has recovered. The demand for short fibers has increased, and overall, the downstream market is clearly improving. In general, the downstream textile industry is rising, and the domestic market price of paraxylene is rising.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game against the demand side. Downstream PTA stocks and supplies are expected to tighten, demand in the textile industry is increasing, and the market’s expectation of demand is still relatively optimistic. Overall, it is expected that the market value price of paraxylene will rise in the future.

The price of DOTP fluctuated and rose in March

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 31, the average price of DOTP was 10080 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.93% compared to the average price of 9987.50 yuan/ton on March 1. Plasticizer enterprises started steadily, with sufficient supply of DOTP. The rising price of raw materials was supported by DOTP costs. In March, DOTP prices fluctuated and rose.

Raw material prices fluctuated and rose in March

According to business agency data detection; As of March 31, the price of isooctanol was 9471.43 yuan/ton, up 2.63% from the shock of 9228.57 yuan/ton on March 1. Downstream demand for isooctanol has temporarily stabilized, and downstream customers are seeking bargains to replenish inventory. In March, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, and the upward momentum for DOTP remains. In April, the overhaul expectations for isooctanol enterprises increased, and the price of isooctanol has consolidated strongly. In the future, the upward momentum for DOTP remains.

According to data testing by Business News Agency, as of March 31, the PTA price was 6404.55 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 14.42% compared to the price of 5597.27 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, PTA enterprises stabilized, and the textile industry market entered a traditional peak season. PTA demand slowly rebounded. In March, PTA prices fluctuated and rose, supporting the cost of DOTP raw materials. It is expected that the momentum for DOTP growth in the future will increase.

Import and export data statistics

According to the import and export data released by the customs, in January and February 2023, the cumulative import volume of DOTP was 5670.26 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.87%. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the import volume in January decreased year-on-year, and in February, the import volume returned to normal. In January and February, the import volume increased to varying degrees year-on-year. From January to February 2023, the cumulative export volume of DOTP was 8.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 117.5%. The export data of DOTP has increased significantly, while the import data has increased slightly. The import and export volumes have both increased, and the import volume is far greater than the export volume. The domestic plasticizer market has sufficient supply, and the support for the rise of DOTP is insufficient.

Aftermarket expectations

According to DOTP data analysts from the Business News Agency, in March, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol, surged, the price of PTA rose significantly, and the raw material cost of plasticizer DOTP rose; Downstream customers are hunting for bargains to replenish their inventories. In March, DOTP demand was weak, and DOTP demand support was insufficient. The price of isooctanol fluctuates and rises. With the arrival of the peak season, PTA prices have significantly increased, import volumes have increased, and the plasticizer market has sufficient supply. In the future, cost support is relatively large, and demand is weak. It is expected that DOTP will consolidate strongly in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic MTBE market is highly volatile. From March 1st to 30th, the price of MTBE increased from 7100 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.41% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 6.86%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.37%.

At the beginning of this month, due to the overhaul of some production enterprises in Shandong, the supply volume was significantly reduced, while the demand for gasoline remained, with both supply and demand being positive. Merchants were strongly bullish, and the MTBE market price was gradually rising. In the first ten days of this month, the overhaul of some devices in Shandong Province, coupled with export orders from some factories, led to a significant reduction in spot supply, which boosted the effect of tight goods and rising prices. Merchants actively boosted prices, and the price increase of enterprises during the week was around 50-200 yuan/ton. In the middle of June, as prices rose to a high level, the enthusiasm for receiving goods from downstream decreased. In addition to the broad downward trend of crude oil, there was a strong pessimistic atmosphere in the market, and demand was increasingly reduced. MTBE prices followed the downward trend.

On the cost side, the international crude oil market in March fell first and then rose, but overall it still fell. As of March 29, international crude oil futures fell slightly. The settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was US $72.97 per barrel, a decrease of US $0.23 or 0.3%. Brent crude oil futures rose, with the main contract closing at $77.59 per barrel, a decrease of $0.55 or 0.7%. The domestic oil industry chain MTBE product market was affected by market fluctuations.

On the demand side, the international crude oil futures price fell first and then rose, and the atmosphere in the entire oil industry chain was weak. There is no positive holiday support in the near future. Gasoline demand has stabilized, while diesel terminal demand is recovering, and the overall recovery is less than expected. The MTBE demand side is temporarily negative.

In terms of external trading, as of March 29, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market was reduced by $5.50 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $985.49-987.49 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $15.00 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1117.99-1118.49 per ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market decreased by 59.36 US dollars per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at 1145.5-1145.86 US dollars per ton (322.68-322.78 US cents per gallon).

Region/ Country/ Closing Price/ Up and down

Asia/ FOB Singapore/ 985.49-987.49 USD/ton./- 5.50 USD/ton

Europe/ FOB ARA./ 1117.99-1118.49 USD/ton./15 USD/ton

United States/ FOB Bay/ 1145.5-1145.86 USD/ton./- 59.36 USD/ton

In the future, as prices fall to a low level and downstream demand increases moderately, coupled with limited support from the market’s spot supply, analysts at the business agency MTBE believe that the domestic MTBE market may stop falling back in the short term

In March, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued its downward trend, while the Henan market stepped down. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the average market price of dimethyl ether in Henan was 4320 yuan/ton on March 1, and 4120 yuan/ton on March 28. The monthly decline was 4.63%, down 2.75% compared to the same period last year.

As of March 28, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in domestic markets in various regions are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream Quote

Shandong region/ 3700-3750 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3750-3800 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3750-3800 yuan/ton

In March, the overall trend of the dimethyl ether market was difficult to say optimistic, with the market price center moving downward and the price inversion serious. At the beginning of this month, due to the relatively strong market for raw material methanol and strengthened cost support, the price of dimethyl ether increased slightly several times, with a range of 10-20 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market was accompanied by a decline in raw material prices, weakening cost support, and a significant decline in the market for related liquefied gas products. As a result, on-site inventory pressure increased, factories shifted profits and goods to inventory, and some factories had plans to reduce their burden. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, with negative factors leading to a difficult improvement in the dimethyl ether market.

 
Overall, the raw material methanol remains weak, the inventory of dimethyl ether manufacturers remains high, and there is no sign of improvement in market demand. There is expected to be a decrease in the supply of dimethyl ether in the future. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will operate in a weak and volatile manner in the short term.

The domestic acetic acid market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. The utilization rate of on-site acetic acid production capacity is relatively high, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. Enterprises are actively shipping, and downstream companies follow up on demand. The enthusiasm for entering the market to pick up goods is moderate. The on-site trading atmosphere is light, and under the supply and demand game, the price of acetic acid is temporarily stable.

According to bulk data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 26, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3200.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on March 20, with an increase of 1.59% compared to the beginning of the month. As of March 26, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week were as follows:

Region/ March 20th/ March 26th/ Price fluctuation

South China region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 0

North China/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang Region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market is operating in a volatile manner. As of March 26, the average price in the domestic market was 2593 yuan/ton, an overall decrease of 0.95% compared to the price of 2618 yuan/ton on March 20. The raw material coal market is dominated by wait-and-see consolidation, with a lack of positive support on the cost side. At the same time, the spot buying performance is weak, and the methanol market is weak in consolidation.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is up. As of March 26, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5337 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.18% compared to the price of 5275 yuan/ton on March 20. The upstream acetic acid price is stable, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is limited. The downstream delivery of acetic anhydride follows up on demand. The market negotiation atmosphere is good, and the price of acetic anhydride has increased slightly.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from the Business Agency believes that the acetic acid market has sufficient supply, while the downstream demand is weak. The market has followed up on demand. The market has learned that the acetic acid manufacturers in the northwest region have maintenance plans, and the supply of acetic acid may be less. It is expected that the acetic acid market may increase slightly in the future, with specific attention paid to the downstream follow-up situation.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market is weak, and the spot price has been reduced in a narrow range. According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 27, the average price of ABS sample products was 11825 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.07% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: The current high load situation in the ABS industry has increased, and the overhaul of LG Huizhou, Zhejiang Petrochemical and other enterprises has been completed, with the overall operating rate rising to about 93%. There is abundant on-site spot supply, coupled with the entry of new materials into the market before, intensifying on-site competition and high pressure on the supply side. Domestic inventories have accumulated, putting pressure on factory prices of petrochemical plants.

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has increased and decreased. The acrylonitrile market was weak last week. The low price of raw materials fell, and the cost of acrylonitrile continued to decline; In the early stage, enterprises such as Korol and SECCO have limited relief from pressure on acrylonitrile supply due to load reduction. Currently, there is insufficient market demand, and the acrylonitrile market is weak and stagnant.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market continued its downward trend. During the week, the supply price of Sinopec, a major producer, was slightly lowered, and many enterprises in the Northeast sold their products at low prices, resulting in a negative supply side. At the same time, the downstream synthetic rubber market continued to decline, with downstream profits under pressure and inquiry intentions depressed. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will continue to be weak in the short term.

The styrene market in Shandong rose in a narrow range last week. Spot demand for styrene was moderate, international oil prices rebounded from low levels, and cost support slightly recovered. In the early stage, the high inventory at the port has also been smoothly removed in the near future, and the basic situation of styrene has gradually improved. It is expected that the domestic styrene market may strengthen in the short term.

Demand: Recently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have been generally proactive in stocking, and some manufacturers still have raw material inventory to digest. Overall demand improvement is limited, actual transaction volume is weak, and the smoothness of on-site delivery is poor.

Aftermarket Forecast

Recently, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials is weak, which generally supports the cost side of ABS. The high starting point of petrochemical plants has increased, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Demand side support is poor, merchants’ mentality is weak, and operations tend to yield profits and take orders. It is expected that the ABS market will continue to operate weakly due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions in the short term.