Crude oil supported strongly, toluene price continued to rise (2021.4.19-4.25)

1、 Price trend

sulphamic acid

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the overall price of toluene continued to rise this week. On April 18, the price of toluene was 5641 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (April 25) was 5671 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton or 0.53% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is + 100 / + 150 (yuan / ton). Toluene inventories at ports in East China continued to rise this week. This week, crude oil prices fluctuated at a high level, while the external price rose, supporting the price of toluene to rise. However, the lower side of the news is weak, inhibiting the rise. In terms of external market, as of April 23, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 715 US dollars / ton, up 8 US dollars / ton, or 1.13%, from April 16; The price of imported toluene in East China was 742 US dollars / ton, up 12 US dollars / ton, or 1.64%, on April 16.

Crude oil, crude oil this week to maintain the range shock. Good news: some oil fields in Libya shut down and supply decreased. Bad: India is the third largest oil importer in the world. The number of COVID-19 infected COVID-19 has skyrocketed, and some areas have implemented blockade measures, and the recovery of crude oil demand has been suppressed. US commercial crude oil stocks unexpectedly increased. On April 16, Brent fell 0.345 USD / barrel, or 0.52%; WTI fell $1.05 per barrel, or 1.66%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell slightly this week, with domestic goods at 15766.67 yuan / ton, down 3.47% compared with last week and up 44.21% compared with the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is weak, the inventory of downstream terminals is fair, the demand is mainly rigid, the inquiry on the floor is cold, and the market trading atmosphere is light.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 48.84% year on year. The operation of p-xylene units in North and East China is stable as a whole. The on-site operation rate is more than 90%. The on-site supply is normal and the goods are in good condition. The on-site operation rate is about 50% in Northwest China and more than 50% in South China. As of April 23, closing prices in Asia were $830-832 / T FOB Korea and $838-840 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Crude oil is expected to run stronger, supporting toluene prices; Gasoline demand is expected to be active before the festival, and there is still room for price to rise. However, the rest of the downstream demand has not changed significantly, the follow-up is general, limiting the rise of toluene. Overall, it is expected that toluene will run at a high price next week, focusing on the downstream purchasing news before May Day. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene unit spring maintenance dynamic, toluene late arrival and downstream demand change on toluene price.

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