1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices fell first and then rose this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 58038.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, up 0.14% compared with the beginning of the year, and up 25.78% compared with the same period last year. LME copper rose in March this week, closing at US $7872.5, up 0.73% this week; Shanghai copper index’s focus rose this week, ending at 58210 yuan, up 1.15% this week. This week, the international copper index closed at 51880 yuan, up 1.15%.

As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, copper inventory is expected to accumulate, but the current global dominant inventory is relatively low; before the holiday, downstream stock preparation ends, processing enterprises and traders gradually enter the holiday state, and market consumption is weak seasonally. But this year, in order to control the spread of the epidemic, China encourages people to stay in place for the Chinese New Year. Many rural workers may not return home, so the slowdown in industrial activity may not be as significant as in previous years. In the past, hundreds of millions of people returned home during the Spring Festival.

Moreover, small Non-agricultural enterprises in the United States exceeded expectations to boost market sentiment, overseas market demand was boosted, and concentrate processing fees remained low, indicating tight supply. At present, the copper concentrate processing fee continues to be low, which indicates that the supply at the ore end is tight, and the current inventory has not been obviously accumulated, so this year’s accumulation rate may not be as high as in previous years. Copper prices are expected to maintain a narrow volatility trend before the year.