1、 Price trend
On May 15, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3617 yuan / ton, the same as last week, according to the data of business agency.
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On May 14, the price of large single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 3480 yuan / ton, 5 yuan / ton higher than last week, a slight increase.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
As of May 14, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China is about one hundred and twenty-three point six five 10000 tons, up from last Thursday nine point one five 10000 tons, growth rate 7.99% , up from last Monday five point nine four 10000 tons, growth rate 5.05% 。 The accumulation range is large.
In terms of delivery, the daily average delivery of Zhangjiagang main port this week zero point seven zero About ten thousand tons, the comprehensive daily average delivery of Taicang to the two warehouses zero point four eight About ten thousand tons. Shipments have improved, but remain low.
Affected by the decline of coal production operation rate, the current ethylene glycol operation rate is about 52.62% About, downstream polyester operation rate is about 84%.
In terms of plant, Guizhou Qianxi coal chemical 300000 ton plant was originally planned to be restarted on May 6, and now the restart time has moved back. Hengli (Dalian) glycol line 2 has been shut down recently and is expected to last for about 3 days.
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3、 Analysis and prediction
Due to the recent rebound in crude oil prices, while the price of external ethylene rose, the cost side of ethylene glycol was supported. In addition, affected by the cost, the operating rate of the coal to glycol unit decreased, and the Hengli unit entered into maintenance, which also raised the expectation of the investment market for a better price. Affected by the above factors, the price of glycol futures rose recently.
On the other hand, the shipment volume has not changed much, and the continuous supply of goods has led to another rise in inventory this week. At the same time, the downturn in downstream production and sales has not improved, and the corresponding spot price has not recovered significantly.
It can be seen that even though the price of glycol has risen, the rebound is limited due to the lack of long-term good support.
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