1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, the domestic PP market was more active in April, and the spot price was adjusted by a large margin and the adjustment frequency was on the high side. As of April 30, the main offer price of T30S (drawing) by domestic producers and traders was about 7566.67 yuan / ton, up 15.52% from the average price at the beginning of the month. The main offer price of Z30S (fiber) is about 8500.00 yuan / ton.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream: in April, the domestic propylene price experienced a large-scale upward and downward trend, and then fluctuated steadily. At the beginning of the month, it was 5239 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was 5932 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 13.22% and a monthly amplitude of 82.18%. The price of propylene fell in shock last month, and dropped sharply again at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of more than 15%. During the Qingming period, the price of propylene rose steadily, and on November and December, it soared. After that, the market returned to rationality, some of the soaring enterprises or all returned to the prices before the surge, and the correction was mainly stable on the 19th. This time, we focus on the mid day rally, which is also due to multiple reasons. In April, affected by the complex international situation, many countries issued policies to reduce crude oil production, which was good for the upstream. The follow-up game between oil producing countries affected crude oil fluctuations for many times, but the impact on propylene was far less than that of public health events. The price of melt blown cloth raw material PP rose sharply. In addition, the price of acrylic acid, propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin and other downstream materials also rose this month. After that, PP returned to rationality, the support for propylene gradually decreased, and the future market turned stable. Therefore, it is expected that the price of propylene will stabilize after a slight upward trend in recent days;

Products: at the beginning of this month, the domestic PP market as a whole remained weak, the spot market was under pressure at the early stage, the petrochemical plant inventory was high, and the resumption of work of the downstream PP plant was general, so the atmosphere of on-site purchase inquiry was not strong. The turning point of the market appeared on the 6th. On April 6, the average price per ton of spot goods rose by 16.89%. The inflection point with high synchronous rate of international crude oil price shock tells us that the rise of crude oil was good for polypropylene market at that time. On the next 10 days, the 05 contract was up 398 points, up and down. Pp09 opened sharply on the 13th, and pp05 rose again. Investors are bullish.

The propylene demand gap brought by the current social and public health events is one of the factors driving up the price of PP this month. Since the Spring Festival, the domestic demand for PP fiber materials and melt blown materials has increased rapidly. The gap of some brands of products is large, and the production proportion of CO injection plastics and wire drawing materials is reduced. Last year, the production capacity of PP drawing materials accounted for about 33%. In April, a large number of enterprises changed production, resulting in the production capacity of drawing materials falling to around 22%. The short-term mismatch of production scheduling leads to supply shortage expectation, which also pushes up the price of PP.

In the middle and late ten days, the PP market gradually returned to rationality. On the 17th, the domestic drawing PP price dropped by an average of 7.66% in a single day, and the spot price dropped by thousands. However, as the secondary main force of prevention and control materials, fiber PP did not callback with drawing PP. The atmosphere of speculation in the market is getting weaker, and the general law of supply and demand price has been returned at the end of the month.

3、 Future forecast

PP analysts of the business club think: the domestic PP spot market rose in April. The upstream propylene market also fluctuated and rose, supporting the PP cost end. During the current special period, the situation of overseas health prevention and control is still unclear. This year’s maintenance peak season is approaching, and the startup situation of the production line is complex, which needs further observation. Downstream plant demand order follow-up is average.