1、 Price trend:

On March 28, crude benzene commodity index was 41.79, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.30% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 6.47% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: the price of pure benzene continued to fall sharply this week, down 19.30% on a week-on-week basis, with weak negotiation focus. Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was lowered twice this week, with a total of 800 yuan / ton to 2900 yuan / ton. Some of the downstream hydrobenzene enterprises shut down, the overall operating rate fell, and the focus of the hydrobenzene negotiation continued to move down. As of Friday, the price of crude benzene in Shandong fell to about 2200-2250 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: crude oil: the overall price of oil this week was at the bottom of the shock. Oil prices rallied in the middle of the week in favor of a massive US economic stimulus plan. But the week was still down, with concerns that demand for oil continued to be negative. Compared with March 20, Brent fell 16.86% and WTI fell 2.93% this week. Compared with February 28, 2020, Brent fell 58.21% and WTI fell 44.04% this month. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 68.4% and WTI by 58.61%. Pure benzene: this week, the price focus of pure benzene has moved down sharply again. Continuing last week’s situation, Sinopec continued to fall for two consecutive times this week, with the listing price of pure benzene reduced by 800 yuan / ton to 2900 yuan / ton. The fundamental contradiction of pure benzene is gradually increasing. Downstream: the operation rate of domestic styrene plant is reduced, the domestic supply is reduced, and the situation of port to ship is less than that in the earlier stage. This week, the styrene market price fell continuously, and most domestic enterprises reduced prices and promoted sales. The market price of aniline is stable, individual enterprises stop production and balance supply and demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are formic acid (17.09%), isopropanol (17.08%) and nitric acid (3.23%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling were pure benzene (- 19.30%), crude benzene (- 15.83%) and ethylene oxide (- 13.16%), with an average increase or decrease of – 1.6% this week.

3、 Trend Forecast:

Crude oil fundamentals are weak. Although the United States proposes economic stimulus plan, overseas situation is not optimistic. Oil prices continue to be under pressure. The operating rate of aniline styrene in the downstream decreased, and the pure benzene inventory in the port area was high and the supply was sufficient. The demand of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises is weak, and it is expected that the aftermarket atmosphere of crude benzene market will be empty.