1、 Price trend

This week (3.23-27), the domestic polysilicon market is weak and stable, and the prices of polycrystalline compact materials and polycrystalline non washable materials remain unchanged, maintaining the early trend. Affected by the epidemic, the downstream purchase demand further shrinks, and the export of components significantly shrinks, so the market price is still low this week, and the market mostly implements the early order price. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the rise and fall of polysilicon this week is 0, and the price of polysilicon has been kept at the bottom for two consecutive weeks.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of demand, the terminal has not improved, and the downstream operating rate remains at a low stage. Some new single crystal production capacity is delayed due to the impact of the epidemic, and the operation is not as expected, which restricts the demand for polysilicon to some extent. However, due to the gradual recovery of the operating rate of the downstream single crystal enterprises currently in production, the demand for polysilicon is also slightly stable. In terms of market supply, at present, some of the polysilicon plants are shut down, and the overall operating rate in China is maintained at 80-90%. As of March 27, there are 1 domestic polysilicon plant with load reduction operation, 1 maintenance plant, and the domestic production maintains a high operating rate. In addition, from the perspective of external supply, it shows a tightening trend, and the import volume caused by the exit of polysilicon production capacity in South Korea is greatly reduced, which also eases the domestic supply pressure to some extent, and plays a supporting role in the current weak polysilicon market. At present, the manufacturers mainly execute the early orders, and some enterprises have signed the orders in April. In addition, the market transportation pressure is not great, but affected by the increase of transportation cost, the delivery speed of the manufacturers has declined. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main domestic transaction price of polysilicon with the model of primary solar material is 55000-58000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future prospects

In the future, the business community believes that at present, the supply and demand of polysilicon is basically balanced. On the one hand, domestic enterprises are gradually returning to work, and the downstream operation rate is slightly improved. The domestic operation rate remains high, but the demand is still not much improved. On the other hand, the export of downstream polysilicon components is affected to some extent. According to statistics, the export of battery components fell 29% year on year in February, which is not optimistic in the future 。 The trend of overseas epidemic is becoming increasingly severe, and the future export will still bring many challenges. At present, domestic demand remains stable, which to some extent eases the pressure of enterprises. It is expected that polysilicon will still be weak in the near future, and it is unlikely to rebound significantly.