Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market rose sharply this week. The average price of acetic acid in eastern China was around 2916 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and the average price of acetic acid in eastern China rose to about 316 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 6.86%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2950/ton; in Shandong is about 3000-3150 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 3000-3050 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2750 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 3100-3250 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3300-3400 yuan/ton; and in South China it is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton. About.

II. Cause Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic acetic acid market was affected by supply tension, and the price went up sharply. At present, the inventory of enterprises in North China is low, and the quantity of shipments is limited. Among them, the overhaul of 500,000 tons/year plant in Longyu, Henan Province, is postponed to the end of the month, and the load of 350,000 tons/year plant in Yongli, Bohua, Tianjin, is reduced to about mid-August from July 25. There is a shortage of spot goods in East China, some areas are affected by typhoon, and logistics transportation is affected. Soap’s 1.2 million tons/year plant has been restored after a short shutdown, and the start-up is unstable. Huayi Anhui Plant plans to repair a 500,000 tons/year plant for 25 days from August 15. It has been reported that a large-scale plant in Nanjing will be limited in production. The price of acetic acid will rise because of typhoon in South China. At present, the overall start-up rate of the industry is about 85%, and the shortage of supply-side is difficult to effectively remedy in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream, domestic methanol market is affected by equipment maintenance and TRADERS’replenishment. It runs steadily in a week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of methanol market is 2076 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it is 2136 yuan/ton, up 2.89%, which is 29.39% lower than the same period last year. Domestic acetate and vinyl acetate industries are supported by raw material acetic acid prices. Sound, within a week more strong operation, the overall start-up rate has declined, downstream just need to be flat, the future market still needs to pay attention to raw materials; domestic PTA enterprises overall start-up rate is about 95%, downstream industry demand is flat in the short term difficult to ease, expected future shocks on the soft side.

International: North American acetic acid market showed stable performance this week, Celanese’s offer increased, but raw material methanol support was insufficient, and the current quotation was about 360 US dollars/ton; Asian acetic acid market was affected by supply tension in China, acetic acid prices rose sharply, currently 425-455 US dollars/ton; European acetic acid market showed stable performance and trade level in the industry. At present, the price is around 650 euros/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Acetic acid analysts of business associations believe that the supply of acetic acid in the domestic market is becoming more and more tense. Typhoon has affected the supply of acetic acid in eastern and southern China. Traders are more willing to offer and sell, and raw material methanol has recently shown a warming performance, which further supports the price of acetic acid. The downstream market is currently flat and some areas are affected by it. Environmental security inspection affects inadequate start-up, poor demand and a certain degree of resistance to the high price of acetic acid. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid price will soar in a short period of time, and the future market needs to pay attention to the start-up of enterprises.