The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market at the beginning of the week was 5380 yuan/ton, rising by 0.19% annually, and falling by 3.64% compared with the same period last year.
II. Market Analysis
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Products: This week, the alcohol market rose and fell differently among regions: Heilongjiang showed a weak and integrated performance, Henan region went up, and some areas did not go up. The inventory of small factories in Heilongjiang area of Northeast China is high, the mentality of shipment is positive, the overhaul of large factories is continuing, and the equipment of overhaul enterprises in Jilin area is open, and the inventory of enterprises is not high at present; the equipment of enterprises in Henan area is continuously affected by environmental protection, and the start-up load is not high. Houyuan feeds materials this week, Xinheyang device stops, Huaxing one-line production is supplied. Supported by favorable conditions, the market price goes up; Changxing plant production in eastern China reduces the water-free load of flower hall and increases the price; Runtai plant in Leizhou, Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, starts up in South China, and Guangxi is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply of goods is not high, the downstream demand basically maintains a small amount of just-in-demand procurement, and the supply of goods from other places is low. The situation is that the sales of corn alcohol in Northeast China are stable, and there is no water in other places.
Industry chain: In the upstream, the average weekly price of Maize in Jilin region of Northeast China closed at 1740 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with last week’s price. The price of dried cassava chips in upstream Thailand remained stable, mainly due to the current season of fresh cassava production. Cassava entered the starch market more and dried chips exported less. Up to now, FOB 235-240 US dollars/ton, theoretical port price of East China 1900-1920 yuan/ton, and domestic East China purchased goods from Northeast China and sold them. Enterprises produce in multiple inventories, and the exchange rate of RMB breaks 7 short of domestic imports. Downstream, East China Ethyl Acetate was 5,600 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 3.7% from last week’s price.
3. Future Market Forecast
Short-term ethanol market focus is still on supply and demand. First of all, from the perspective of supply, the Fukang plant in Meihekou will start on the 10th, and a cassava alcohol factory in East China will also arrange maintenance plans. Houyuan hears that there is still a short-term shutdown plan in the near future. In summary, the supply side will remain tight. Looking at the terminal market, although it is in the off-season demand, it still has a short-term shutdown plan. Just need consumption still exists, Jiangmen Qianxin Ethyl Ester equipment coal to gas temporary shutdown, but more consumption of pre-purchase inventory, has little impact on the market in the short term. In summary, business ethanol analysts predict that in the short term, supply will still become the point to support the market, but demand is weak and difficult to offset, the market may have a rising trend. But the range is not large, maintaining 20-50 yuan/ton floating.